SHANGHAI SIPG 3-4 Hangzhou Greentown – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hangzhou Greentown encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hangzhou Greentown make the trip to SAIC Motor Pudong Arena to face SHANGHAI SIPG in Super League, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Saturday 12 August 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Form
SHANGHAI SIPG (all games): 8W 2D 0L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SHANGHAI SIPG, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SHANGHAI SIPG's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Hangzhou Greentown's overall Super League record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Hangzhou Greentown, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Hangzhou Greentown have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. SHANGHAI SIPG's 2.60 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Hangzhou Greentown's 1.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — SHANGHAI SIPG register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Hangzhou Greentown in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — SHANGHAI SIPG lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2023, ended 2–1 with SHANGHAI SIPG winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
SHANGHAI SIPG goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Hangzhou Greentown goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SHANGHAI SIPG 46% versus Hangzhou Greentown 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SHANGHAI SIPG 52% | Hangzhou Greentown 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SHANGHAI SIPG 1.86 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.207 / defence 0.905 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.197 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.556 / away 1.236. Data: 55 SHANGHAI SIPG games / 54 Hangzhou Greentown games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 48% | Draw 26% | Hangzhou Greentown 26%. Fair-value odds: SHANGHAI SIPG 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Hangzhou Greentown 3.85. SHANGHAI SIPG hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.86 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SHANGHAI SIPG at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SHANGHAI SIPG if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.20 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SHANGHAI SIPG 80% | Hangzhou Greentown 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hangzhou Greentown | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: SAIC Motor Pudong Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Aug 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 48% | Draw 26% | Hangzhou Greentown 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG SHANGHAI SIPG 1.86 / Hangzhou Greentown 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.207 / def 0.905 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.197 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.556 / away 1.236 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Hangzhou Greentown xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hangzhou Greentown kick off?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hangzhou Greentown kicked off at 12:35 on Saturday 12 August 2023 at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena.
What was the final score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hangzhou Greentown?
SHANGHAI SIPG 3 - 4 Hangzhou Greentown.
Where is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hangzhou Greentown being played?
The match is being played at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena.
What competition is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hangzhou Greentown part of?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hangzhou Greentown is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our statistical model gives SHANGHAI SIPG a 48% chance of winning, Hangzhou Greentown a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both SHANGHAI SIPG and Hangzhou Greentown will score (BTTS).
Will SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hangzhou Greentown have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Hangzhou Greentown?
Record (3 meetings): SHANGHAI SIPG 1W | Draws 1 | Hangzhou Greentown 1W.
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Hangzhou Greentown in?
SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from SHANGHAI SIPG's attack rating (1.21) and Hangzhou Greentown's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.86 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Hangzhou Greentown's attack (1.20x) against SHANGHAI SIPG's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 55/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
48%
2.08
26%
3.85
26%
3.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Total xG
3.20
1.34
Hangzhou Greentown xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
3.84
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
16%
6.41
Win to Nil
13%
7.95
4%
24.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 10.2 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.9 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are SHANGHAI SIPG and Hangzhou Greentown expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for SHANGHAI SIPG and 1.34 for Hangzhou Greentown, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SHANGHAI SIPG's recent record stands at 36W 9D 9L from 54 games, a 2.17 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for SHANGHAI SIPG is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hangzhou Greentown, meanwhile, have gone 26W 16D 12L across 54 games — 1.74 PPG, with W-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Hangzhou Greentown is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours SHANGHAI SIPG by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hangzhou Greentown heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, SHANGHAI SIPG have managed 18W 4D 4L from 26 games — 2.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hangzhou Greentown's away record stands at 10W 11D 5L across 26 trips, a 1.58 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SHANGHAI SIPG come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SHANGHAI SIPG are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 0.72 conceded per game recently; Hangzhou Greentown are on 1.72 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SHANGHAI SIPG
Blended
Hangzhou Greentown
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Hangzhou Greentown in coming into this match?
SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 36W 9D 9L in their last 54 games (2.17 PPG), while Hangzhou Greentown have gone 26W 16D 12L in their last 54 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SHANGHAI SIPG at home or Hangzhou Greentown away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's home record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SHANGHAI SIPG at home: 2.23 PPG; Hangzhou Greentown away: 1.58 PPG.
Have SHANGHAI SIPG or Hangzhou Greentown been keeping clean sheets recently?
SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Hangzhou Greentown in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 15 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SHANGHAI SIPG won 3-0 on 31 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Hangzhou Greentown — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
SHANGHAI SIPG
4
Draws
2
Hangzhou Greentown
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Hangzhou Greentown?
From 9 meetings on record, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 3, Hangzhou Greentown have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did SHANGHAI SIPG and Hangzhou Greentown last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when SHANGHAI SIPG 2-2 Hangzhou Greentown.
Who has won more matches between SHANGHAI SIPG and Hangzhou Greentown?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SHANGHAI SIPG 50%, Hangzhou Greentown 77% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (SHANGHAI SIPG) and 62% (Hangzhou Greentown). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SHANGHAI SIPG keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SHANGHAI SIPG home games / Hangzhou Greentown away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SHANGHAI SIPG play Hangzhou Greentown?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of SHANGHAI SIPG's games and 77% of Hangzhou Greentown's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hangzhou Greentown usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of SHANGHAI SIPG's matches and 62% of Hangzhou Greentown's.
Do SHANGHAI SIPG and Hangzhou Greentown tend to score early?
SHANGHAI SIPG have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Hangzhou Greentown in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hangzhou Greentown defy the odds to beat SHANGHAI SIPG 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hangzhou Greentown beat SHANGHAI SIPG 3-4 at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SHANGHAI SIPG 1.86 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.34 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. SHANGHAI SIPG beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hangzhou Greentown outscored their 1.34 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.21 / defence 0.91 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.20 / defence 0.99, drawn from 55/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SHANGHAI SIPG 48% | Draw 26% | Hangzhou Greentown 26%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Hangzhou Greentown win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SHANGHAI SIPG 52%, Hangzhou Greentown 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.74. Form was overturned, with Hangzhou Greentown winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.96 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 0.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.81 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.