Shandong Luneng 1-1 Qingdao Jonoon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shandong Luneng (67%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Shandong Luneng face Qingdao Jonoon.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Shandong Luneng host Qingdao Jonoon at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium in Super League (matchday 19). Kick-off is Saturday 13 July 2024 at 13:35 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Shandong Luneng have gone 4W 4D 2L — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W D D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Shandong Luneng at home: 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Shandong Luneng are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Qingdao Jonoon — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
On the road, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Shandong Luneng have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
Shandong Luneng hold a clear advantage across the 3 H2H matches in our data, with 3 wins compared to 0 for Qingdao Jonoon and 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 5 Apr 2024, ended Shandong Luneng 1–0 Qingdao Jonoon — a Shandong Luneng win.
The head-to-head data gives Shandong Luneng an edge — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Data
Shandong Luneng trading profile (last 48 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games).
Qingdao Jonoon trading profile (last 48 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 26% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shandong Luneng 54% versus Qingdao Jonoon 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shandong Luneng 56% | Qingdao Jonoon 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shandong Luneng 2.15 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shandong Luneng attack 1.209 / defence 1.002 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.625 / defence 1.035. League average goals — home 1.720 / away 1.334. Qingdao Jonoon's attack rating of 0.625 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.84. Data: built from Shandong Luneng's last 48 games and Qingdao Jonoon's last 48.
Result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 67% | Draw 20% | Qingdao Jonoon 13%. Fair-value odds: Shandong Luneng 1.49 | Draw 5.07 | Qingdao Jonoon 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Shandong Luneng (67%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shandong Luneng as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Shandong Luneng's last 10 home games and Qingdao Jonoon's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Shandong Luneng 70% (last 10 home games) | Qingdao Jonoon 10% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Jonoon | Competition: Super League, matchday 19 | Venue: Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 July 2024 at 13:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 67% | Draw 20% | Qingdao Jonoon 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Shandong Luneng 2.15 / Qingdao Jonoon 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Shandong Luneng attack 1.209 / def 1.002 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.625 / def 1.035 | league avg home 1.720 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
Shandong Luneng xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Qingdao Jonoon xG
50%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Jonoon FAQs
What time does Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Jonoon kick off?
Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Jonoon kicked off at 13:35 UK time on Saturday 13 July 2024 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Shandong Luneng 1 - 1 Qingdao Jonoon.
Where is Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Jonoon being played?
The match is being played at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Jonoon part of?
Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Jonoon is a Super League fixture (matchday 19) (China).
Who is favourite to win Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our statistical model gives Shandong Luneng a 67% chance of winning, Qingdao Jonoon a 13% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Shandong Luneng and Qingdao Jonoon will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Jonoon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Shandong Luneng's attack at 1.21x the league average against Qingdao Jonoon's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 2.15 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Qingdao Jonoon's attack versus Shandong Luneng's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Shandong Luneng's last 48 games and Qingdao Jonoon's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
67%
1.49
20%
5.07
13%
7.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
Shandong Luneng xG
Total xG
2.99
0.84
Qingdao Jonoon xG
1.49
67%
Home win
5.07
20%
Draw
7.69
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
12%
8.61
Win to Nil
29%
3.43
2%
66.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.8 | 9.1 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.4 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Jonoon Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Shandong Luneng and Qingdao Jonoon expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for Shandong Luneng and 0.84 for Qingdao Jonoon, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Shandong Luneng's recent record stands at 24W 16D 8L from 48 games, a 1.83 PPG return, with W-D-D-L-L in the last five.
Qingdao Jonoon, meanwhile, have gone 12W 10D 26L across 48 games — 0.96 PPG, with W-W-L-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shandong Luneng by 0.87 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Qingdao Jonoon heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Shandong Luneng have managed 17W 4D 2L from their last 23 home games — 2.39 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.83 PPG overall — Shandong Luneng are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Qingdao Jonoon's away record stands at 2W 5D 16L across their last 23 away games, a 0.48 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.96 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Qingdao Jonoon's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shandong Luneng come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Shandong Luneng are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Jonoon are on 1.04 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Defensively: Shandong Luneng have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shandong Luneng
Blended
Qingdao Jonoon
Blended
Shandong Luneng (Home) vs Qingdao Jonoon (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shandong Luneng
Blended
Qingdao Jonoon
Blended
❓ Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Jonoon Form FAQs
What form are Shandong Luneng and Qingdao Jonoon in coming into this match?
Shandong Luneng have gone 24W 16D 8L in their last 48 games (1.83 PPG), while Qingdao Jonoon have gone 12W 10D 26L in their last 48 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shandong Luneng at home or Qingdao Jonoon away?
Shandong Luneng's home record (2.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shandong Luneng at home: 2.39 PPG; Qingdao Jonoon away: 0.48 PPG.
Have Shandong Luneng or Qingdao Jonoon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shandong Luneng have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Qingdao Jonoon in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from May 2023. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was on 14 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Apr 2026, when Qingdao Jonoon won Qingdao Jonoon 4-1 Shandong Luneng.
Shandong Luneng's record when hosting Qingdao Jonoon specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Shandong Luneng
3
Draws
1
Qingdao Jonoon
Recent Meetings
❓ Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Jonoon H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Qingdao Jonoon?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Shandong Luneng have won 4, Qingdao Jonoon have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Shandong Luneng and Qingdao Jonoon last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 August 2026: Shandong Luneng 3-1 Qingdao Jonoon.
Who has won more matches between Shandong Luneng and Qingdao Jonoon?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Qingdao Jonoon see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shandong Luneng 56%, Qingdao Jonoon 26% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 74% (Shandong Luneng) and 26% (Qingdao Jonoon).
On the defensive side: Shandong Luneng keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Qingdao Jonoon in 70%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shandong Luneng home games / Qingdao Jonoon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Jonoon Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Shandong Luneng and Qingdao Jonoon matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Shandong Luneng's recent matches and 26% of Qingdao Jonoon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Shandong Luneng and Qingdao Jonoon matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 74% of Shandong Luneng's recent games and 26% of Qingdao Jonoon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shandong Luneng and Qingdao Jonoon matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Shandong Luneng's recent matches and 52% of Qingdao Jonoon's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shandong Luneng and Qingdao Jonoon share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 19, as Shandong Luneng and Qingdao Jonoon drew 1-1 in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shandong Luneng 2.15 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 0.84 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Shandong Luneng fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shandong Luneng attack 1.21 / defence 1.00 against Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.62 / defence 1.03, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shandong Luneng 67% | Draw 20% | Qingdao Jonoon 13%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shandong Luneng 56%, Qingdao Jonoon 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.61 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.