Nantong Zhiyun 0-2 Shandong Luneng – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Shandong Luneng at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nantong Zhiyun vs Shandong Luneng encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium plays host to Nantong Zhiyun versus Shandong Luneng in Super League, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Sunday 21 July 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Nantong Zhiyun have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Nantong Zhiyun, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nantong Zhiyun's home record at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Super League appearances (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Shandong Luneng's overall Super League record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Shandong Luneng, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Shandong Luneng have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Shandong Luneng arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Nantong Zhiyun 0W, Shandong Luneng 1W, 2D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Apr 2024, ended 1–3 with Shandong Luneng winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Nantong Zhiyun — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Shandong Luneng — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nantong Zhiyun 59% versus Shandong Luneng 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nantong Zhiyun 39% | Shandong Luneng 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nantong Zhiyun 1.04 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.609 / defence 1.021 | Shandong Luneng attack 0.809 / defence 0.993. League average goals — home 1.716 / away 1.327. Nantong Zhiyun's attack strength of 0.609 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 49 Nantong Zhiyun games / 49 Shandong Luneng games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nantong Zhiyun 32% | Draw 32% | Shandong Luneng 35%. Fair-value odds: Nantong Zhiyun 3.12 | Draw 3.12 | Shandong Luneng 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shandong Luneng are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shandong Luneng if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.13 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nantong Zhiyun 50% | Shandong Luneng 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nantong Zhiyun vs Shandong Luneng | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Jul 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nantong Zhiyun 32% | Draw 32% | Shandong Luneng 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG Nantong Zhiyun 1.04 / Shandong Luneng 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.609 / def 1.021 | Shandong Luneng attack 0.809 / def 0.993 | league avg home 1.716 / away 1.327 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Nantong Zhiyun xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Shandong Luneng xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nantong Zhiyun vs Shandong Luneng kick off?
Nantong Zhiyun vs Shandong Luneng kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 21 July 2024 at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Nantong Zhiyun vs Shandong Luneng?
Nantong Zhiyun 0 - 2 Shandong Luneng.
Where is Nantong Zhiyun vs Shandong Luneng being played?
The match is being played at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Nantong Zhiyun vs Shandong Luneng part of?
Nantong Zhiyun vs Shandong Luneng is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Nantong Zhiyun vs Shandong Luneng?
Our statistical model gives Nantong Zhiyun a 32% chance of winning, Shandong Luneng a 35% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nantong Zhiyun vs Shandong Luneng?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Nantong Zhiyun and Shandong Luneng will score (BTTS).
Will Nantong Zhiyun vs Shandong Luneng have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nantong Zhiyun and Shandong Luneng?
Record (3 meetings): Nantong Zhiyun 0W | Draws 2 | Shandong Luneng 1W.
What form are Nantong Zhiyun and Shandong Luneng in?
Nantong Zhiyun (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Shandong Luneng (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Nantong Zhiyun's attack at 0.61x the league average against Shandong Luneng's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shandong Luneng's attack (0.81x) against Nantong Zhiyun's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
32%
3.09
32%
3.10
35%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Nantong Zhiyun xG
Total xG
2.13
1.10
Shandong Luneng xG
3.09
32%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
2.82
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
11%
9.25
13%
7.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 13.0 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.5 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nantong Zhiyun vs Shandong Luneng?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Nantong Zhiyun and Shandong Luneng expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Nantong Zhiyun and 1.10 for Shandong Luneng, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Nantong Zhiyun vs Shandong Luneng?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Nantong Zhiyun come into this having played 49 games, going 7W 15D 27L for 0.73 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-L. The sample for Nantong Zhiyun is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Shandong Luneng sit at 1.82 PPG from 49 outings (24W 17D 8L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Shandong Luneng is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shandong Luneng carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.09 PPG clear of Nantong Zhiyun — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Nantong Zhiyun's home form reads 3W 6D 15L across 24 games on their own ground, a 0.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Shandong Luneng have taken 1.38 points per game from 24 outings (7W 12D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.82 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Shandong Luneng's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shandong Luneng come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nantong Zhiyun are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Shandong Luneng are on 1.82 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nantong Zhiyun
Blended
Shandong Luneng
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nantong Zhiyun and Shandong Luneng in coming into this match?
Nantong Zhiyun have gone 7W 15D 27L in their last 49 games (0.73 PPG), while Shandong Luneng have gone 24W 17D 8L in their last 49 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nantong Zhiyun at home or Shandong Luneng away?
Shandong Luneng's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nantong Zhiyun at home: 0.62 PPG; Shandong Luneng away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Nantong Zhiyun or Shandong Luneng been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nantong Zhiyun have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Shandong Luneng in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 July 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Shandong Luneng go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nantong Zhiyun have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Shandong Luneng — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Nantong Zhiyun
2
Draws
2
Shandong Luneng
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nantong Zhiyun and Shandong Luneng?
From 4 meetings on record, Nantong Zhiyun have won 0, Shandong Luneng have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nantong Zhiyun and Shandong Luneng last play each other?
They last met on 21 July 2024, when Nantong Zhiyun 0-2 Shandong Luneng.
Who has won more matches between Nantong Zhiyun and Shandong Luneng?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Nantong Zhiyun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nantong Zhiyun 46%, Shandong Luneng 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Nantong Zhiyun) and 42% (Shandong Luneng).
On the defensive side: Shandong Luneng in 38%; Nantong Zhiyun have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nantong Zhiyun home games / Shandong Luneng away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nantong Zhiyun play Shandong Luneng?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Nantong Zhiyun's recent matches and 54% of Shandong Luneng's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nantong Zhiyun vs Shandong Luneng usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Nantong Zhiyun's recent games and 42% of Shandong Luneng's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nantong Zhiyun and Shandong Luneng tend to score early?
Nantong Zhiyun have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Shandong Luneng in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shandong Luneng cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Nantong Zhiyun.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shandong Luneng beat Nantong Zhiyun 0-2 at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nantong Zhiyun 1.04 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.10 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Nantong Zhiyun fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Shandong Luneng outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.61 / defence 1.02 against Shandong Luneng attack 0.81 / defence 0.99, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nantong Zhiyun 32% | Draw 32% | Shandong Luneng 35%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nantong Zhiyun 39%, Shandong Luneng 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nantong Zhiyun's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 0.73. That form edge translated into the three points. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.