Qingdao Youth Island 5-2 Hangzhou Greentown – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Qingdao Youth Island at 38%, yet in-form Hangzhou Greentown provide a compelling counter-argument — this Qingdao Youth Island vs Hangzhou Greentown fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Qingdao Youth Island host Hangzhou Greentown at Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium in Super League (matchday 19). Kick-off is Saturday 13 July 2024 at 08:30 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Qingdao Youth Island stand at 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

Qingdao Youth Island's home record over their last 9 home games: 1W 3D 5L (0.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.

Across their last 10 games, Hangzhou Greentown have recorded 6W 0D 4L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Hangzhou Greentown away from home: 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Hangzhou Greentown — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Qingdao Youth Island have won 1, Hangzhou Greentown 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 6 Apr 2024, ended Qingdao Youth Island 2–1 Hangzhou Greentown — a Qingdao Youth Island win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Qingdao Youth Island in-play tendencies (last 18 games, 8 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 39% of games.

Hangzhou Greentown in-play tendencies (last 18 games, 8 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Youth Island 56% versus Hangzhou Greentown 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Youth Island 50% | Hangzhou Greentown 78%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Youth Island 1.32 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.661 / defence 1.164 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.794 / defence 1.184. League average goals — home 1.685 / away 1.327. Qingdao Youth Island's attack rating of 0.661 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.32. Hangzhou Greentown's attack rating of 0.794 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.23. Data: built from Qingdao Youth Island's last 18 games and Hangzhou Greentown's last 48.

Result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 38% | Draw 28% | Hangzhou Greentown 34%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Youth Island 2.61 | Draw 3.61 | Hangzhou Greentown 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Qingdao Youth Island are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Hangzhou Greentown (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Qingdao Youth Island offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Qingdao Youth Island 44% (last 9 home games) | Hangzhou Greentown 50% (last 10 away games).

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