Qingdao Youth Island 5-2 Hangzhou Greentown – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Qingdao Youth Island at 38%, yet in-form Hangzhou Greentown provide a compelling counter-argument — this Qingdao Youth Island vs Hangzhou Greentown fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Qingdao Youth Island host Hangzhou Greentown at Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 July 2024 at 07:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Qingdao Youth Island stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Super League matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Youth Island, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Qingdao Youth Island's home record at Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium: 1W 3D 5L from 9 Super League appearances (0.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.
Across all Super League games this season, Hangzhou Greentown have recorded 6W 0D 4L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hangzhou Greentown, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hangzhou Greentown away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Hangzhou Greentown — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Qingdao Youth Island, 0 for Hangzhou Greentown and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2024, ended 2–1 with Qingdao Youth Island winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Qingdao Youth Island in-play tendencies (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
Hangzhou Greentown in-play tendencies (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Youth Island 56% versus Hangzhou Greentown 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Youth Island 50% | Hangzhou Greentown 78%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Youth Island 1.32 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.661 / defence 1.164 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.794 / defence 1.184. League average goals — home 1.685 / away 1.327. Qingdao Youth Island's attack strength of 0.661 is below the league average — the 1.32 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 18 Qingdao Youth Island games / 48 Hangzhou Greentown games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 38% | Draw 28% | Hangzhou Greentown 34%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Youth Island 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Hangzhou Greentown 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Qingdao Youth Island are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Hangzhou Greentown (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Qingdao Youth Island offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Qingdao Youth Island 44% | Hangzhou Greentown 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Youth Island vs Hangzhou Greentown | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Jul 2024, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Youth Island 38% | Draw 28% | Hangzhou Greentown 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Qingdao Youth Island 1.32 / Hangzhou Greentown 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.661 / def 1.164 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.794 / def 1.184 | league avg home 1.685 / away 1.327 • Poisson stance: Qingdao Youth Island (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Qingdao Youth Island xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Hangzhou Greentown xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Youth Island vs Hangzhou Greentown kick off?
Qingdao Youth Island vs Hangzhou Greentown kicked off at 07:30 on Saturday 13 July 2024 at Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Youth Island vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Qingdao Youth Island 5 - 2 Hangzhou Greentown.
Where is Qingdao Youth Island vs Hangzhou Greentown being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Youth Island vs Hangzhou Greentown part of?
Qingdao Youth Island vs Hangzhou Greentown is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Youth Island vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Youth Island a 38% chance of winning, Hangzhou Greentown a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Qingdao Youth Island the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Youth Island vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Qingdao Youth Island and Hangzhou Greentown will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Youth Island vs Hangzhou Greentown have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Youth Island and Hangzhou Greentown?
Record (1 meetings): Qingdao Youth Island 1W | Draws 0 | Hangzhou Greentown 0W.
What form are Qingdao Youth Island and Hangzhou Greentown in?
Qingdao Youth Island (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Qingdao Youth Island's attacking strength (0.66x league average) is weighed against Hangzhou Greentown's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. The same calculation in reverse, Hangzhou Greentown's attack versus Qingdao Youth Island's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Qingdao Youth Island Win
38%
2.61
28%
3.61
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Qingdao Youth Island xG
Total xG
2.54
1.23
Hangzhou Greentown xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
27%
3.73
Win to Nil
11%
8.90
9%
10.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.7 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Youth Island vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Qingdao Youth Island and Hangzhou Greentown expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Qingdao Youth Island and 1.23 for Hangzhou Greentown, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Youth Island vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Qingdao Youth Island come into this having played 18 games, going 3W 4D 11L for 0.72 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Qingdao Youth Island is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hangzhou Greentown sit at 1.56 PPG from 18 outings (9W 1D 8L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Hangzhou Greentown is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hangzhou Greentown carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.84 PPG clear of Qingdao Youth Island — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Qingdao Youth Island's home form reads 1W 2D 5L across 8 games on their own ground, a 0.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Hangzhou Greentown have taken 0.75 points per game from 8 outings (2W 0D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.56 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hangzhou Greentown's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Qingdao Youth Island are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 2.11 conceded per game recently; Hangzhou Greentown are on 1.72 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 18 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Youth Island
Blended
Hangzhou Greentown
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Qingdao Youth Island and Hangzhou Greentown in coming into this match?
Qingdao Youth Island have gone 3W 4D 11L in their last 18 games (0.72 PPG), while Hangzhou Greentown have gone 9W 1D 8L in their last 18 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Qingdao Youth Island at home or Hangzhou Greentown away?
Hangzhou Greentown's away record (0.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Qingdao Youth Island at home: 0.62 PPG; Hangzhou Greentown away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 28 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Jul 2024, when Qingdao Youth Island won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Qingdao Youth Island's record when hosting Hangzhou Greentown specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Qingdao Youth Island
0
Draws
3
Hangzhou Greentown
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Youth Island and Hangzhou Greentown?
From 6 meetings on record, Qingdao Youth Island have won 3, Hangzhou Greentown have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Youth Island and Hangzhou Greentown last play each other?
They last met on 28 June 2026, when Qingdao Youth Island 3-1 Hangzhou Greentown.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Qingdao Youth Island are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Qingdao Youth Island 38%, Hangzhou Greentown 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Qingdao Youth Island) and 75% (Hangzhou Greentown). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Qingdao Youth Island have failed to score in 50% of games; Hangzhou Greentown in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Youth Island home games / Hangzhou Greentown away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Qingdao Youth Island play Hangzhou Greentown?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Qingdao Youth Island's recent matches and 38% of Hangzhou Greentown's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Qingdao Youth Island vs Hangzhou Greentown usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 38% of Qingdao Youth Island's matches and 75% of Hangzhou Greentown's.
Do Qingdao Youth Island and Hangzhou Greentown tend to score early?
Qingdao Youth Island have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Hangzhou Greentown in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Qingdao Youth Island run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Hangzhou Greentown.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Qingdao Youth Island beat Hangzhou Greentown 5-2 at Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Youth Island 1.32 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.23 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Qingdao Youth Island beat their projection by 3.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.66 / defence 1.16 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.79 / defence 1.18, drawn from 18/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Youth Island 38% | Draw 28% | Hangzhou Greentown 34%, with Qingdao Youth Island to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Youth Island 50%, Hangzhou Greentown 78%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Qingdao Youth Island's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hangzhou Greentown arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 0.72. Form was overturned, with Qingdao Youth Island winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Qingdao Youth Island (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 2.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.