Chengdu Better City 2-1 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Chengdu Better City at 65% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Chengdu Better City welcome Tianjin Teda to Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park in Super League (matchday 19). Kick-off is Friday 12 July 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Chengdu Better City — last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Chengdu Better City have posted 8W 1D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Chengdu Better City are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Tianjin Teda have recorded 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Tianjin Teda have posted 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Chengdu Better City have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Chengdu Better City, 0 for Tianjin Teda and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 6 Apr 2024, ended Chengdu Better City 3–2 Tianjin Teda — a Chengdu Better City win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Chengdu Better City trading profile (last 48 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Tianjin Teda trading profile (last 48 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 64%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chengdu Better City 52% versus Tianjin Teda 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chengdu Better City 58% | Tianjin Teda 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chengdu Better City 2.50 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chengdu Better City attack 1.411 / defence 0.772 | Tianjin Teda attack 1.201 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 1.690 / away 1.329. Chengdu Better City carry an above-average attack rating of 1.411 — their 2.50 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Tianjin Teda have an above-average attack rating of 1.201, which lifts their away xG to 1.23. Chengdu Better City have a tight defence (rating 0.772), which is pulling Tianjin Teda's projected output down. Data: built from Chengdu Better City's last 48 games and Tianjin Teda's last 48.
Result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 65% | Draw 18% | Tianjin Teda 17%. Fair-value odds: Chengdu Better City 1.54 | Draw 5.44 | Tianjin Teda 5.94. The model has a clear lean to Chengdu Better City (65%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.74. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.74 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (2.50 / 1.23) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chengdu Better City at 65% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 72% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Chengdu Better City's last 10 home games and Tianjin Teda's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Chengdu Better City 30% (last 10 home games) | Tianjin Teda 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, matchday 19 | Venue: Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park • Kick-off: Friday 12 July 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 65% | Draw 18% | Tianjin Teda 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% (Under 28%) | BTTS Yes 65% (No 35%) | xG Chengdu Better City 2.50 / Tianjin Teda 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Chengdu Better City attack 1.411 / def 0.772 | Tianjin Teda attack 1.201 / def 1.050 | league avg home 1.690 / away 1.329 • Poisson stance: Chengdu Better City (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.50
Chengdu Better City xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Tianjin Teda xG
65%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda FAQs
What time does Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Friday 12 July 2024 at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park.
What was the final score in Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda?
Chengdu Better City 2 - 1 Tianjin Teda.
Where is Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park.
What competition is Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda is a Super League fixture (matchday 19) (China).
Who is favourite to win Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Chengdu Better City a 65% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 17% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Chengdu Better City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Chengdu Better City and Tianjin Teda will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Chengdu Better City's attack at 1.41x the league average against Tianjin Teda's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 2.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Tianjin Teda's attack versus Chengdu Better City's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Chengdu Better City's last 48 games and Tianjin Teda's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.3%), 3-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Chengdu Better City Win
65%
1.54
18%
5.44
17%
5.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.7%
Home win
2 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.50
Chengdu Better City xG
Total xG
3.74
1.23
Tianjin Teda xG
1.54
65%
Home win
5.44
18%
Draw
5.94
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.89
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
8%
12.22
Win to Nil
19%
5.29
1%
72.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 7.4 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.2 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 7.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are Chengdu Better City and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 2.50 expected goals for Chengdu Better City and 1.23 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 3.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 48 outings, Chengdu Better City have picked up 1.90 PPG on a 27W 10D 11L record — W-D-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Tianjin Teda's form line: 17W 21D 10L from 48 games, 1.50 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chengdu Better City on 1.90 PPG, Tianjin Teda on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Chengdu Better City have posted 2.17 PPG from their last 24 home games (16W 4D 4L).
On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 11W 6D 7L from their last 24 away games — 1.62 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chengdu Better City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Chengdu Better City are averaging 1.96 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Tianjin Teda are on 1.42 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tianjin Teda in 62%.
Defensively: Chengdu Better City have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chengdu Better City
Blended
Tianjin Teda
Blended
Chengdu Better City (Home) vs Tianjin Teda (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Chengdu Better City
Blended
Tianjin Teda
Blended
❓ Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda Form FAQs
What form are Chengdu Better City and Tianjin Teda in coming into this match?
Chengdu Better City have gone 27W 10D 11L in their last 48 games (1.90 PPG), while Tianjin Teda have gone 17W 21D 10L in their last 48 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chengdu Better City at home or Tianjin Teda away?
Chengdu Better City's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chengdu Better City at home: 2.17 PPG; Tianjin Teda away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Chengdu Better City or Tianjin Teda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chengdu Better City have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Tianjin Teda in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to June 2022. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 10 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Chengdu Better City's record when hosting Tianjin Teda specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Chengdu Better City
3
Draws
3
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Tianjin Teda?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Chengdu Better City have won 4, Tianjin Teda have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Chengdu Better City and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 October 2026: Chengdu Better City 0-1 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Chengdu Better City and Tianjin Teda?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chengdu Better City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chengdu Better City 46%, Tianjin Teda 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Chengdu Better City) and 50% (Tianjin Teda). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Chengdu Better City keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chengdu Better City home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Chengdu Better City and Tianjin Teda matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Chengdu Better City's games and 67% of Tianjin Teda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Chengdu Better City and Tianjin Teda matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Chengdu Better City's matches and 50% of Tianjin Teda's.
Do Chengdu Better City and Tianjin Teda matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Chengdu Better City's recent matches and 75% of Tianjin Teda's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Chengdu Better City edge out Tianjin Teda 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chengdu Better City beat Tianjin Teda 2-1 at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park, Regular Season - 19, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chengdu Better City 2.50 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.23 xG, a combined 3.74. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chengdu Better City attack 1.41 / defence 0.77 against Tianjin Teda attack 1.20 / defence 1.05, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chengdu Better City 65% | Draw 18% | Tianjin Teda 17%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 65%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chengdu Better City 58%, Tianjin Teda 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chengdu Better City's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chengdu Better City 1.90 PPG, Tianjin Teda 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chengdu Better City win broke the near-deadlock. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.