Henan Jianye 1-0 Dalian Aerbin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Henan Jianye at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Henan Jianye vs Dalian Aerbin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 8 as Henan Jianye welcome Dalian Aerbin to Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 May 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Henan Jianye have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L D D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Henan Jianye's home record at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Super League appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Dalian Aerbin — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Dalian Aerbin have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Henan Jianye) versus 1.70 (Dalian Aerbin). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Henan Jianye, 1 for Dalian Aerbin and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Jun 2022, ended 2–0 with Henan Jianye winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Henan Jianye in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Dalian Aerbin in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Henan Jianye 46% versus Dalian Aerbin 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Henan Jianye 40% | Dalian Aerbin 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 1.25 xG and Dalian Aerbin 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 0.788 / defence 0.787 | Dalian Aerbin attack 0.938 / defence 1.240. League average goals — home 1.281 / away 1.268. Henan Jianye's attack strength of 0.788 is below the league average — the 1.25 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Dalian Aerbin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.240 — this is suppressing Henan Jianye's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Henan Jianye's defence rating of 0.787 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 Henan Jianye games / 41 Dalian Aerbin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 40% | Draw 37% | Dalian Aerbin 24%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 2.50 | Draw 2.70 | Dalian Aerbin 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Henan Jianye as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 37% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Henan Jianye offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.19 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Henan Jianye 30% | Dalian Aerbin 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs Dalian Aerbin | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 May 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 40% | Draw 37% | Dalian Aerbin 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 47% | xG Henan Jianye 1.25 / Dalian Aerbin 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 0.788 / def 0.787 | Dalian Aerbin attack 0.938 / def 1.240 | league avg home 1.281 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Dalian Aerbin xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Henan Jianye vs Dalian Aerbin kick off?
Henan Jianye vs Dalian Aerbin kicked off at 12:35 on Saturday 20 May 2023 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Henan Jianye vs Dalian Aerbin?
Henan Jianye 1 - 0 Dalian Aerbin.
Where is Henan Jianye vs Dalian Aerbin being played?
The match is being played at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs Dalian Aerbin part of?
Henan Jianye vs Dalian Aerbin is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 40% chance of winning, Dalian Aerbin a 24% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Henan Jianye and Dalian Aerbin will score (BTTS).
Will Henan Jianye vs Dalian Aerbin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Dalian Aerbin?
Record (4 meetings): Henan Jianye 2W | Draws 1 | Dalian Aerbin 1W.
What form are Henan Jianye and Dalian Aerbin in?
Henan Jianye (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-D-W. Dalian Aerbin (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Henan Jianye's attack at 0.79x the league average against Dalian Aerbin's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dalian Aerbin's attack versus Henan Jianye's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
40%
2.53
37%
2.73
24%
4.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
2.19
0.94
Dalian Aerbin xG
2.53
40%
Home win
2.73
37%
Draw
4.21
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
16%
6.45
7%
14.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 10.5 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.1 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and Dalian Aerbin expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 0.94 for Dalian Aerbin, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs Dalian Aerbin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Henan Jianye come into this having played 55 games, going 23W 17D 15L for 1.56 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-D-W.
On the other side, Dalian Aerbin sit at 1.24 PPG from 55 outings (19W 11D 25L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Henan Jianye on 1.56 PPG, Dalian Aerbin on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Henan Jianye's home form reads 15W 6D 6L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.89 PPG return.
Away from home, Dalian Aerbin have taken 1.19 points per game from 27 outings (9W 5D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Henan Jianye come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Henan Jianye are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Dalian Aerbin are on 1.31 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Defensively: Henan Jianye have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Current Season
Dalian Aerbin
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Henan Jianye and Dalian Aerbin in coming into this match?
Henan Jianye have gone 23W 17D 15L in their last 55 games (1.56 PPG), while Dalian Aerbin have gone 19W 11D 25L in their last 55 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Henan Jianye at home or Dalian Aerbin away?
Henan Jianye's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Henan Jianye at home: 1.89 PPG; Dalian Aerbin away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Henan Jianye or Dalian Aerbin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Henan Jianye have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Dalian Aerbin in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 August 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Henan Jianye have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Aug 2023, when Henan Jianye won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Henan Jianye's record when hosting Dalian Aerbin specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Henan Jianye
1
Draws
1
Dalian Aerbin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Dalian Aerbin?
From 6 meetings on record, Henan Jianye have won 4, Dalian Aerbin have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and Dalian Aerbin last play each other?
They last met on 19 August 2023, when Dalian Aerbin 0-3 Henan Jianye.
Who has won more matches between Henan Jianye and Dalian Aerbin?
Henan Jianye have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Dalian Aerbin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Henan Jianye 52%, Dalian Aerbin 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Henan Jianye) and 63% (Dalian Aerbin). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 15% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Henan Jianye keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Dalian Aerbin in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / Dalian Aerbin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Henan Jianye play Dalian Aerbin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Henan Jianye's recent matches and 52% of Dalian Aerbin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Henan Jianye vs Dalian Aerbin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Henan Jianye's matches and 63% of Dalian Aerbin's.
Do Henan Jianye and Dalian Aerbin tend to score early?
Henan Jianye have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Dalian Aerbin in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Henan Jianye edge out Dalian Aerbin 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Henan Jianye beat Dalian Aerbin 1-0 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 1.25 xG and Dalian Aerbin 0.94 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Dalian Aerbin landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 0.79 / defence 0.79 against Dalian Aerbin attack 0.94 / defence 1.24, drawn from 40/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 40% | Draw 37% | Dalian Aerbin 24%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 40%, Dalian Aerbin 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Henan Jianye's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Henan Jianye 1.56 PPG, Dalian Aerbin 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Henan Jianye win broke the near-deadlock. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Dalian Aerbin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.