Tianjin Teda 1-0 Henan Jianye – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Tianjin Teda at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Tianjin Teda host Henan Jianye at Tianjin Olympic Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 14 May 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Form Guide
Tianjin Teda — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: D D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Tianjin Teda's home record at Tianjin Olympic Center Stadium: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Super League appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Henan Jianye stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Super League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Super League this season, Henan Jianye have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Tianjin Teda 2.00 PPG, Henan Jianye 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Tianjin Teda have won 1, Henan Jianye 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 10 Dec 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Tianjin Teda in-play and half-time data (55 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Henan Jianye in-play and half-time data (55 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 49% versus Henan Jianye 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 47% | Henan Jianye 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.18 xG and Henan Jianye 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.984 / defence 0.809 | Henan Jianye attack 0.903 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.241 / away 1.227. Data: 39 Tianjin Teda games / 39 Henan Jianye games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 38% | Draw 38% | Henan Jianye 24%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 2.63 | Draw 2.63 | Henan Jianye 4.17. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 38% and away win at 24% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.07 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Tianjin Teda 40% | Henan Jianye 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Tianjin Olympic Center Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 14 May 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 38% | Draw 38% | Henan Jianye 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 45% | xG Tianjin Teda 1.18 / Henan Jianye 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 0.984 / def 0.809 | Henan Jianye attack 0.903 / def 0.964 | league avg home 1.241 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Henan Jianye xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye kicked off at 12:35 on Sunday 14 May 2023 at Tianjin Olympic Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye?
Tianjin Teda 1 - 0 Henan Jianye.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye being played?
The match is being played at Tianjin Olympic Center Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 38% chance of winning, Henan Jianye a 24% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Henan Jianye will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Henan Jianye?
Record (3 meetings): Tianjin Teda 1W | Draws 2 | Henan Jianye 0W.
What form are Tianjin Teda and Henan Jianye in?
Tianjin Teda (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Henan Jianye (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Tianjin Teda's attack rating (0.98) and Henan Jianye's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Henan Jianye's attack versus Tianjin Teda's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 1-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
38%
2.61
38%
2.65
24%
4.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
2.07
0.90
Henan Jianye xG
2.61
38%
Home win
2.65
38%
Draw
4.19
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
16%
6.38
7%
13.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 11.3 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.8 | 13.3 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Henan Jianye expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 0.90 for Henan Jianye, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Tianjin Teda's recent record stands at 19W 13D 23L from 55 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-L in the last five.
Henan Jianye, meanwhile, have gone 23W 17D 15L across 55 games — 1.56 PPG, with L-D-D-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Tianjin Teda on 1.27 PPG, Henan Jianye on 1.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Tianjin Teda have managed 10W 6D 12L from 28 games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Henan Jianye's away record stands at 8W 11D 9L across 28 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Tianjin Teda are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Henan Jianye are on 1.38 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: Henan Jianye in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Current Season
Henan Jianye
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tianjin Teda and Henan Jianye in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 19W 13D 23L in their last 55 games (1.27 PPG), while Henan Jianye have gone 23W 17D 15L in their last 55 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tianjin Teda at home or Henan Jianye away?
Tianjin Teda's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tianjin Teda at home: 1.29 PPG; Henan Jianye away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Tianjin Teda or Henan Jianye been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tianjin Teda have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Henan Jianye in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 19 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Tianjin Teda's record when hosting Henan Jianye specifically: 3W 2D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Tianjin Teda
2
Draws
2
Henan Jianye
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Henan Jianye?
From 10 meetings on record, Tianjin Teda have won 6, Henan Jianye have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Henan Jianye last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2026, when Tianjin Teda 1-2 Henan Jianye.
Who has won more matches between Tianjin Teda and Henan Jianye?
Tianjin Teda have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Tianjin Teda see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Henan Jianye see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tianjin Teda 57%, Henan Jianye 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Tianjin Teda) and 32% (Henan Jianye).
On the defensive side: Henan Jianye in 39%; Henan Jianye in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Henan Jianye away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tianjin Teda play Henan Jianye?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Tianjin Teda's recent matches and 39% of Henan Jianye's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Tianjin Teda's recent games and 32% of Henan Jianye's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Tianjin Teda edge out Henan Jianye 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tianjin Teda beat Henan Jianye 1-0 at Tianjin Olympic Center Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.18 xG and Henan Jianye 0.90 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Henan Jianye landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.98 / defence 0.81 against Henan Jianye attack 0.90 / defence 0.96, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 38% | Draw 38% | Henan Jianye 24%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 47%, Henan Jianye 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (55 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Henan Jianye's trading profile (55 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tianjin Teda 1.27 PPG, Henan Jianye 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tianjin Teda win broke the near-deadlock. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.