Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2-4 Changchun Yatai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Changchun Yatai at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Changchun Yatai fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Changchun Yatai travel to Cangzhou Stadium to take on Shijiazhuang Y. J.. The game is scheduled for Friday 19 May 2023, 12:35 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shijiazhuang Y. J. stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Cangzhou Stadium, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Cangzhou Stadium this season.
Changchun Yatai — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Changchun Yatai away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Shijiazhuang Y. J., 1 for Changchun Yatai and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Nov 2022, ended 2–0 with Shijiazhuang Y. J. winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Shijiazhuang Y. J. trading profile (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Changchun Yatai trading profile (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 54% versus Changchun Yatai 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 48% | Changchun Yatai 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.95 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.830 / defence 0.968 | Changchun Yatai attack 1.054 / defence 0.908. League average goals — home 1.266 / away 1.233. Data: 41 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games / 41 Changchun Yatai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 24% | Draw 36% | Changchun Yatai 39%. Fair-value odds: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 4.17 | Draw 2.78 | Changchun Yatai 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Changchun Yatai as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Shijiazhuang Y. J. (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Changchun Yatai offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 40% | Changchun Yatai 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Changchun Yatai | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Cangzhou Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 19 May 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 24% | Draw 36% | Changchun Yatai 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 48% | xG Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.95 / Changchun Yatai 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.830 / def 0.968 | Changchun Yatai attack 1.054 / def 0.908 | league avg home 1.266 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Changchun Yatai (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Changchun Yatai xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Changchun Yatai kick off?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Changchun Yatai kicked off at 12:35 on Friday 19 May 2023 at Cangzhou Stadium.
What was the final score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Changchun Yatai?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2 - 4 Changchun Yatai.
Where is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Changchun Yatai being played?
The match is being played at Cangzhou Stadium.
What competition is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Changchun Yatai part of?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Changchun Yatai is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Changchun Yatai?
Our statistical model gives Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 24% chance of winning, Changchun Yatai a 39% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Changchun Yatai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Changchun Yatai?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Changchun Yatai will score (BTTS).
Will Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Changchun Yatai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Changchun Yatai?
Record (2 meetings): Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1W | Draws 0 | Changchun Yatai 1W.
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Changchun Yatai in?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Changchun Yatai (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack at 0.83x the league average against Changchun Yatai's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 0.95 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Changchun Yatai's attack versus Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 0-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Changchun Yatai Win
24%
4.14
36%
2.74
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Total xG
2.21
1.26
Changchun Yatai xG
4.14
24%
Home win
2.74
36%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
38%
2.60
Win to Nil
7%
14.56
15%
6.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 13.8 | 8.7 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.3 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Changchun Yatai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Changchun Yatai expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 1.26 for Changchun Yatai, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Changchun Yatai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent record stands at 17W 17D 22L from 56 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-W in the last five.
Changchun Yatai, meanwhile, have gone 22W 17D 17L across 56 games — 1.48 PPG, with W-L-L-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Shijiazhuang Y. J. on 1.21 PPG, Changchun Yatai on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have managed 8W 11D 9L from 28 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Changchun Yatai's away record stands at 11W 8D 9L across 28 trips, a 1.46 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Changchun Yatai are on 1.43 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Current Season
Changchun Yatai
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Changchun Yatai in coming into this match?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 17W 17D 22L in their last 56 games (1.21 PPG), while Changchun Yatai have gone 22W 17D 17L in their last 56 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home or Changchun Yatai away?
Changchun Yatai's away record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home: 1.25 PPG; Changchun Yatai away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Shijiazhuang Y. J. or Changchun Yatai been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Changchun Yatai in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Changchun Yatai runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 July 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s record when hosting Changchun Yatai specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
0
Draws
4
Changchun Yatai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Changchun Yatai?
From 6 meetings on record, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 2, Changchun Yatai have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Changchun Yatai last play each other?
They last met on 27 July 2024, when Changchun Yatai 1-0 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Who has won more matches between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Changchun Yatai?
Changchun Yatai have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 39%, Changchun Yatai 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Shijiazhuang Y. J.) and 68% (Changchun Yatai).
On the defensive side: Shijiazhuang Y. J. keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Shijiazhuang Y. J. have failed to score in 39% of games; Changchun Yatai in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shijiazhuang Y. J. home games / Changchun Yatai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shijiazhuang Y. J. play Changchun Yatai?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent matches and 61% of Changchun Yatai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Changchun Yatai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent games and 68% of Changchun Yatai's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Changchun Yatai tend to score early?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Changchun Yatai in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Changchun Yatai cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Shijiazhuang Y. J..
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Changchun Yatai beat Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2-4 at Cangzhou Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.95 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.26 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Shijiazhuang Y. J. beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Changchun Yatai outscored their 1.26 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.83 / defence 0.97 against Changchun Yatai attack 1.05 / defence 0.91, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shijiazhuang Y. J. 24% | Draw 36% | Changchun Yatai 39%, with Changchun Yatai to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 48%, Changchun Yatai 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.21 PPG, Changchun Yatai 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Changchun Yatai win broke the near-deadlock. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.