Shenzhen Ruby FC 2-1 Dalian Aerbin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dalian Aerbin at 43% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Dalian Aerbin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre plays host to Shenzhen Ruby FC versus Dalian Aerbin in Super League (matchday 7). Kick-off: Saturday 13 May 2023 at 13:35 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Shenzhen Ruby FC have collected 0.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 0D 9L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 2.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.90 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters, Shenzhen Ruby FC have posted 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 home games — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Dalian Aerbin (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L L W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Dalian Aerbin's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Dalian Aerbin are the stronger side — 1.40 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Shenzhen Ruby FC, 2 for Dalian Aerbin and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 8 Nov 2022, ended Shenzhen Ruby FC 0–2 Dalian Aerbin — a Dalian Aerbin win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Shenzhen Ruby FC — key trading statistics (last 55 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Dalian Aerbin — key trading statistics (last 55 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shenzhen Ruby FC 49% versus Dalian Aerbin 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shenzhen Ruby FC 60% | Dalian Aerbin 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.13 xG and Dalian Aerbin 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.781 / defence 1.240 | Dalian Aerbin attack 0.995 / defence 1.187. League average goals — home 1.216 / away 1.251. Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack rating of 0.781 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.13. Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence rating of 1.240 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Dalian Aerbin's projected output up. Data: built from Shenzhen Ruby FC's last 39 games and Dalian Aerbin's last 40.
Result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 24% | Draw 33% | Dalian Aerbin 43%. Fair-value odds: Shenzhen Ruby FC 4.14 | Draw 3.07 | Dalian Aerbin 2.31. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dalian Aerbin as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dalian Aerbin if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Shenzhen Ruby FC 30% (last 10 home games) | Dalian Aerbin 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Dalian Aerbin | Competition: Super League, matchday 7 | Venue: Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre • Kick-off: Saturday 13 May 2023 at 13:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 24% | Draw 33% | Dalian Aerbin 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.13 / Dalian Aerbin 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.781 / def 1.240 | Dalian Aerbin attack 0.995 / def 1.187 | league avg home 1.216 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Dalian Aerbin (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Dalian Aerbin xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Dalian Aerbin FAQs
What time does Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Dalian Aerbin kick off?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Dalian Aerbin kicked off at 13:35 UK time on Saturday 13 May 2023 at Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Dalian Aerbin?
Shenzhen Ruby FC 2 - 1 Dalian Aerbin.
Where is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Dalian Aerbin being played?
The match is being played at Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre.
What competition is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Dalian Aerbin part of?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Dalian Aerbin is a Super League fixture (matchday 7) (China).
Who is favourite to win Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our statistical model gives Shenzhen Ruby FC a 24% chance of winning, Dalian Aerbin a 43% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Dalian Aerbin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Shenzhen Ruby FC and Dalian Aerbin will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Dalian Aerbin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack at 0.78x the league average against Dalian Aerbin's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dalian Aerbin's attack (0.99x) against Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.54.
These ratings are built from Shenzhen Ruby FC's last 39 games and Dalian Aerbin's last 40 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dalian Aerbin Win
24%
4.14
33%
3.07
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Total xG
2.67
1.54
Dalian Aerbin xG
4.14
24%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
21%
4.68
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
5%
19.37
14%
7.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 10.7 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.0 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.8 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Dalian Aerbin Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Dalian Aerbin expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Shenzhen Ruby FC and 1.54 for Dalian Aerbin, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Dalian Aerbin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent record stands at 18W 8D 29L from 55 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five.
Dalian Aerbin, meanwhile, have gone 19W 11D 25L across 55 games — 1.24 PPG, with W-L-L-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for Shenzhen Ruby FC against 1.24 for Dalian Aerbin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Shenzhen Ruby FC have managed 9W 4D 15L from their last 28 home games — 1.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dalian Aerbin's away record stands at 9W 5D 14L across their last 28 away games, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Shenzhen Ruby FC are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Dalian Aerbin are on 1.31 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Current Season
Dalian Aerbin
Current Season
Shenzhen Ruby FC (Home) vs Dalian Aerbin (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Current Season
Dalian Aerbin
Current Season
❓ Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Dalian Aerbin Form FAQs
What form are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Dalian Aerbin in coming into this match?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 18W 8D 29L in their last 55 games (1.13 PPG), while Dalian Aerbin have gone 19W 11D 25L in their last 55 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home or Dalian Aerbin away?
Dalian Aerbin's away record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home: 1.11 PPG; Dalian Aerbin away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Dalian Aerbin, the earliest from September 2022. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 13 August 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dalian Aerbin won Dalian Aerbin 5-1 Shenzhen Ruby FC on 1 Sep 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 1W 0D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Dalian Aerbin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Shenzhen Ruby FC
0
Draws
3
Dalian Aerbin
Recent Meetings
❓ Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Dalian Aerbin H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Dalian Aerbin?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 1, Dalian Aerbin have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shenzhen Ruby FC and Dalian Aerbin last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 August 2023: Dalian Aerbin 2-1 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Who has won more matches between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Dalian Aerbin?
Dalian Aerbin have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shenzhen Ruby FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Dalian Aerbin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shenzhen Ruby FC 39%, Dalian Aerbin 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Shenzhen Ruby FC and 64% for Dalian Aerbin. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shenzhen Ruby FC have failed to score in 50% of games; Dalian Aerbin in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shenzhen Ruby FC home games / Dalian Aerbin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Dalian Aerbin Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Shenzhen Ruby FC and Dalian Aerbin matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent matches and 50% of Dalian Aerbin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Dalian Aerbin matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's matches and 64% of Dalian Aerbin's.
Do Shenzhen Ruby FC and Dalian Aerbin matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent matches and 70% of Dalian Aerbin's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Shenzhen Ruby FC defy the odds to beat Dalian Aerbin 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shenzhen Ruby FC beat Dalian Aerbin 2-1 at Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre, Regular Season - 7, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.13 xG and Dalian Aerbin 1.54 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Shenzhen Ruby FC beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.78 / defence 1.24 against Dalian Aerbin attack 0.99 / defence 1.19, drawn from 39/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shenzhen Ruby FC 24% | Draw 33% | Dalian Aerbin 43%, with Dalian Aerbin to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a Shenzhen Ruby FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shenzhen Ruby FC 60%, Dalian Aerbin 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shenzhen Ruby FC's trading profile (55 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (55 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.13 PPG, Dalian Aerbin 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shenzhen Ruby FC win broke the near-deadlock. Shenzhen Ruby FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.