Chengdu Better City 1-2 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Chengdu Better City at 60% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Chengdu Better City welcome Tianjin Teda to Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park in Super League (matchday 2). Kick-off is Sunday 2 March 2025 at 10:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Chengdu Better City — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Chengdu Better City have posted 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 3.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Chengdu Better City are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Tianjin Teda have recorded 6W 0D 4L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Tianjin Teda have posted 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Chengdu Better City at 1.70 PPG versus Tianjin Teda's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Chengdu Better City's games and 80% of Tianjin Teda's (from Chengdu Better City's last 10 home games and Tianjin Teda's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Chengdu Better City: 3 wins from 6 H2H matches against 0 for Tianjin Teda, with 3 draws.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 12 Jul 2024, ended Chengdu Better City 2–1 Tianjin Teda — a Chengdu Better City win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Chengdu Better City and goals — 3 wins from 6 H2H matches and an average of 2.8 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Chengdu Better City trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Tianjin Teda trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chengdu Better City 53% versus Tianjin Teda 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chengdu Better City 60% | Tianjin Teda 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chengdu Better City 1.99 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chengdu Better City attack 1.051 / defence 0.839 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.994 / defence 1.131. League average goals — home 1.673 / away 1.202. Data: built from Chengdu Better City's last 31 games and Tianjin Teda's last 31. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 60% | Draw 23% | Tianjin Teda 18%. Fair-value odds: Chengdu Better City 1.68 | Draw 4.39 | Tianjin Teda 5.66. The model has a clear lean to Chengdu Better City (60%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chengdu Better City at 60% — clear model lean. The head-to-head data (Chengdu Better City 3 wins from 6 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Chengdu Better City's last 10 home games and Tianjin Teda's last 10 away games) averaging 3.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Chengdu Better City 60% (last 10 home games) | Tianjin Teda 80% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Chengdu Better City 31 games, Tianjin Teda 31) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, matchday 2 | Venue: Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park • Kick-off: Sunday 2 March 2025 at 10:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 60% | Draw 23% | Tianjin Teda 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Chengdu Better City 1.99 / Tianjin Teda 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Chengdu Better City attack 1.051 / def 0.839 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.994 / def 1.131 | league avg home 1.673 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Chengdu Better City (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Chengdu Better City xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Tianjin Teda xG
55%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda FAQs
What time does Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 10:30 UK time on Sunday 2 March 2025 at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park.
What was the final score in Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda?
Chengdu Better City 1 - 2 Tianjin Teda.
Where is Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park.
What competition is Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda is a Super League fixture (matchday 2) (China).
Who is favourite to win Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Chengdu Better City a 60% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Chengdu Better City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Chengdu Better City and Tianjin Teda will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Chengdu Better City's attack at 1.05x the league average against Tianjin Teda's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.99 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Tianjin Teda's attack versus Chengdu Better City's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Chengdu Better City's last 31 games and Tianjin Teda's last 31, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (10.0%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chengdu Better City Win
60%
1.68
23%
4.39
18%
5.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
2 – 1
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Chengdu Better City xG
Total xG
2.99
1.00
Tianjin Teda xG
1.68
60%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
5.66
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
14%
7.32
Win to Nil
22%
4.57
2%
41.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Chengdu Better City and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Chengdu Better City and 1.00 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Chengdu Better City have picked up 1.87 PPG on a 33W 13D 14L record — L-W-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Tianjin Teda's form line: 23W 21D 16L from 60 games, 1.50 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chengdu Better City on 1.87 PPG, Tianjin Teda on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Chengdu Better City have posted 2.17 PPG from their last 30 home games (20W 5D 5L).
On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 11W 6D 13L from their last 30 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chengdu Better City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Chengdu Better City are averaging 1.93 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Tianjin Teda are on 1.40 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tianjin Teda in 62%.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chengdu Better City
Current Season
Tianjin Teda
Current Season
Chengdu Better City (Home) vs Tianjin Teda (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Chengdu Better City
Current Season
Tianjin Teda
Current Season
❓ Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda Form FAQs
What form are Chengdu Better City and Tianjin Teda in coming into this match?
Chengdu Better City have gone 33W 13D 14L in their last 60 games (1.87 PPG), while Tianjin Teda have gone 23W 21D 16L in their last 60 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chengdu Better City at home or Tianjin Teda away?
Chengdu Better City's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chengdu Better City at home: 2.17 PPG; Tianjin Teda away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Chengdu Better City or Tianjin Teda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chengdu Better City have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Tianjin Teda in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to June 2022. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 10 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Chengdu Better City's record when hosting Tianjin Teda specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Chengdu Better City
3
Draws
3
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Tianjin Teda?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Chengdu Better City have won 4, Tianjin Teda have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Chengdu Better City and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 October 2026: Chengdu Better City 0-1 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Chengdu Better City and Tianjin Teda?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chengdu Better City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chengdu Better City 50%, Tianjin Teda 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Chengdu Better City and 57% for Tianjin Teda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Chengdu Better City keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chengdu Better City home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Chengdu Better City and Tianjin Teda matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Chengdu Better City's games and 67% of Tianjin Teda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Chengdu Better City and Tianjin Teda matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Chengdu Better City's matches and 57% of Tianjin Teda's.
Do Chengdu Better City and Tianjin Teda matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 87% of Chengdu Better City's recent matches and 77% of Tianjin Teda's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Tianjin Teda defy the odds to beat Chengdu Better City 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tianjin Teda beat Chengdu Better City 1-2 at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chengdu Better City 1.99 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.00 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Chengdu Better City fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Tianjin Teda outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chengdu Better City attack 1.05 / defence 0.84 against Tianjin Teda attack 0.99 / defence 1.13, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Chengdu Better City 60% | Draw 23% | Tianjin Teda 18%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Tianjin Teda win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chengdu Better City 60%, Tianjin Teda 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chengdu Better City's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chengdu Better City 1.87 PPG, Tianjin Teda 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tianjin Teda win broke the near-deadlock. Chengdu Better City (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.27 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.