Chengdu Better City 1-2 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Chengdu Better City at 60% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 2 as Chengdu Better City welcome Tianjin Teda to Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park. Kick-off is set for Sunday 2 March 2025 at 10:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Chengdu Better City — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Chengdu Better City have posted 7W 2D 1L at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 3.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Chengdu Better City are significantly better at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League games this season, Tianjin Teda have recorded 6W 0D 4L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Super League this season, Tianjin Teda have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Chengdu Better City at 1.70 PPG versus Tianjin Teda's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Chengdu Better City register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Tianjin Teda in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
Chengdu Better City hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 6 previous encounters compared to 0 for Tianjin Teda, with 3 draws in between.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Jul 2024, ended 2–1 with Chengdu Better City winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Chengdu Better City and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Chengdu Better City trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Tianjin Teda trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chengdu Better City 53% versus Tianjin Teda 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chengdu Better City 60% | Tianjin Teda 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chengdu Better City 1.99 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chengdu Better City attack 1.051 / defence 0.839 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.994 / defence 1.131. League average goals — home 1.673 / away 1.202. Data: 31 Chengdu Better City games / 31 Tianjin Teda games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 60% | Draw 23% | Tianjin Teda 18%. Fair-value odds: Chengdu Better City 1.67 | Draw 4.35 | Tianjin Teda 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Chengdu Better City (60%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chengdu Better City at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Chengdu Better City 60% | Tianjin Teda 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Mar 2025, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 60% | Draw 23% | Tianjin Teda 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 55% | xG Chengdu Better City 1.99 / Tianjin Teda 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Chengdu Better City attack 1.051 / def 0.839 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.994 / def 1.131 | league avg home 1.673 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Chengdu Better City (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Chengdu Better City xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Tianjin Teda xG
55%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 2 March 2025 at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park.
What was the final score in Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda?
Chengdu Better City 1 - 2 Tianjin Teda.
Where is Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park.
What competition is Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Chengdu Better City a 60% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Chengdu Better City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Chengdu Better City and Tianjin Teda will score (BTTS).
Will Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Tianjin Teda?
Record (6 meetings): Chengdu Better City 3W | Draws 3 | Tianjin Teda 0W.
What form are Chengdu Better City and Tianjin Teda in?
Chengdu Better City (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Tianjin Teda (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Chengdu Better City's attack at 1.05x the league average against Tianjin Teda's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.99 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Tianjin Teda's attack versus Chengdu Better City's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (10.0%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chengdu Better City Win
60%
1.68
23%
4.39
18%
5.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
2 – 1
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Chengdu Better City xG
Total xG
2.99
1.00
Tianjin Teda xG
1.68
60%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
5.66
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
14%
7.32
Win to Nil
22%
4.57
2%
41.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Chengdu Better City and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Chengdu Better City and 1.00 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Chengdu Better City have picked up 1.87 PPG on a 33W 13D 14L record — L-W-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Tianjin Teda's form line: 23W 21D 16L from 60 games, 1.50 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chengdu Better City on 1.87 PPG, Tianjin Teda on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Chengdu Better City have posted 2.17 PPG from 30 outings (20W 5D 5L).
On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 11W 6D 13L from 30 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chengdu Better City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Chengdu Better City are averaging 1.93 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Tianjin Teda are on 1.40 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tianjin Teda in 62%.
Last 60 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chengdu Better City
Current Season
Tianjin Teda
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chengdu Better City and Tianjin Teda in coming into this match?
Chengdu Better City have gone 33W 13D 14L in their last 60 games (1.87 PPG), while Tianjin Teda have gone 23W 21D 16L in their last 60 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chengdu Better City at home or Tianjin Teda away?
Chengdu Better City's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chengdu Better City at home: 2.17 PPG; Tianjin Teda away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Chengdu Better City or Tianjin Teda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chengdu Better City have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Tianjin Teda in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chengdu Better City and Tianjin Teda runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 15 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Chengdu Better City's record when hosting Tianjin Teda specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Chengdu Better City
3
Draws
2
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Tianjin Teda?
From 9 meetings on record, Chengdu Better City have won 4, Tianjin Teda have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Chengdu Better City and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Tianjin Teda 1-2 Chengdu Better City.
Who has won more matches between Chengdu Better City and Tianjin Teda?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chengdu Better City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chengdu Better City 50%, Tianjin Teda 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Chengdu Better City and 57% for Tianjin Teda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Chengdu Better City keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chengdu Better City home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chengdu Better City play Tianjin Teda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Chengdu Better City's games and 67% of Tianjin Teda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Chengdu Better City's matches and 57% of Tianjin Teda's.
Do Chengdu Better City and Tianjin Teda tend to score early?
Chengdu Better City have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Tianjin Teda in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Tianjin Teda defy the odds to beat Chengdu Better City 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tianjin Teda beat Chengdu Better City 1-2 at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chengdu Better City 1.99 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.00 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Chengdu Better City fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Tianjin Teda outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chengdu Better City attack 1.05 / defence 0.84 against Tianjin Teda attack 0.99 / defence 1.13, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Chengdu Better City 60% | Draw 23% | Tianjin Teda 18%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Tianjin Teda win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chengdu Better City 60%, Tianjin Teda 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chengdu Better City's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chengdu Better City 1.87 PPG, Tianjin Teda 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tianjin Teda win broke the near-deadlock. Chengdu Better City (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.27 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.