Chengdu Better City 1-0 Wuhan Three Towns – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Chengdu Better City at 55% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chengdu Better City vs Wuhan Three Towns encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Wuhan Three Towns travel to Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park to take on Chengdu Better City in Super League (matchday 1). The game is scheduled for Saturday 22 February 2025 at 11:35 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Chengdu Better City stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Chengdu Better City have posted 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 3.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Chengdu Better City are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Wuhan Three Towns have recorded 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Wuhan Three Towns have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
On current form, Chengdu Better City have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 6 H2H matches, Chengdu Better City have won 2, Wuhan Three Towns 1, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 20 Jul 2024, ended Chengdu Better City 1–1 Wuhan Three Towns — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Chengdu Better City in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Wuhan Three Towns in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chengdu Better City 53% versus Wuhan Three Towns 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chengdu Better City 60% | Wuhan Three Towns 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chengdu Better City 1.86 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chengdu Better City attack 1.088 / defence 0.951 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.918 / defence 0.906. League average goals — home 1.890 / away 1.272. Data: built from Chengdu Better City's last 30 games and Wuhan Three Towns's last 30. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 55% | Draw 23% | Wuhan Three Towns 22%. Fair-value odds: Chengdu Better City 1.82 | Draw 4.36 | Wuhan Three Towns 4.49. The model has a clear lean to Chengdu Better City (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chengdu Better City as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.97 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Chengdu Better City's last 10 home games and Wuhan Three Towns's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Chengdu Better City 60% (last 10 home games) | Wuhan Three Towns 50% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Chengdu Better City 30 games, Wuhan Three Towns 30) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chengdu Better City vs Wuhan Three Towns | Competition: Super League, matchday 1 | Venue: Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park • Kick-off: Saturday 22 February 2025 at 11:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 55% | Draw 23% | Wuhan Three Towns 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Chengdu Better City 1.86 / Wuhan Three Towns 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Chengdu Better City attack 1.088 / def 0.951 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.918 / def 0.906 | league avg home 1.890 / away 1.272 • Poisson stance: Chengdu Better City (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Chengdu Better City xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Wuhan Three Towns xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Chengdu Better City vs Wuhan Three Towns FAQs
What time does Chengdu Better City vs Wuhan Three Towns kick off?
Chengdu Better City vs Wuhan Three Towns kicked off at 11:35 UK time on Saturday 22 February 2025 at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park.
What was the final score in Chengdu Better City vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Chengdu Better City 1 - 0 Wuhan Three Towns.
Where is Chengdu Better City vs Wuhan Three Towns being played?
The match is being played at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park.
What competition is Chengdu Better City vs Wuhan Three Towns part of?
Chengdu Better City vs Wuhan Three Towns is a Super League fixture (matchday 1) (China).
Who is favourite to win Chengdu Better City vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our statistical model gives Chengdu Better City a 55% chance of winning, Wuhan Three Towns a 22% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Chengdu Better City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chengdu Better City vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Chengdu Better City and Wuhan Three Towns will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Chengdu Better City vs Wuhan Three Towns have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Chengdu Better City's attack rating (1.09) and Wuhan Three Towns's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.86 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Wuhan Three Towns's attack versus Chengdu Better City's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Chengdu Better City's last 30 games and Wuhan Three Towns's last 30, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chengdu Better City Win
55%
1.82
23%
4.36
22%
4.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Chengdu Better City xG
Total xG
2.97
1.11
Wuhan Three Towns xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
4.49
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
16%
6.44
Win to Nil
18%
5.54
3%
28.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 10.6 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Chengdu Better City vs Wuhan Three Towns Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Chengdu Better City vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Chengdu Better City and Wuhan Three Towns expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Chengdu Better City and 1.11 for Wuhan Three Towns, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Chengdu Better City vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Chengdu Better City come into this having played 60 games, going 33W 13D 14L for 1.87 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-L.
On the other side, Wuhan Three Towns sit at 1.37 PPG from 60 outings (22W 16D 22L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-L across their last five.
Chengdu Better City carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Wuhan Three Towns — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Chengdu Better City's home form reads 20W 5D 5L across their last 30 home games, a 2.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Wuhan Three Towns have taken 1.40 points per game from their last 30 away games (11W 9D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chengdu Better City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Chengdu Better City are averaging 1.93 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Wuhan Three Towns are on 1.37 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wuhan Three Towns in 62%.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chengdu Better City
Current Season
Wuhan Three Towns
Current Season
Chengdu Better City (Home) vs Wuhan Three Towns (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Chengdu Better City
Current Season
Wuhan Three Towns
Current Season
❓ Chengdu Better City vs Wuhan Three Towns Form FAQs
What form are Chengdu Better City and Wuhan Three Towns in coming into this match?
Chengdu Better City have gone 33W 13D 14L in their last 60 games (1.87 PPG), while Wuhan Three Towns have gone 22W 16D 22L in their last 60 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chengdu Better City at home or Wuhan Three Towns away?
Chengdu Better City's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chengdu Better City at home: 2.17 PPG; Wuhan Three Towns away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Chengdu Better City or Wuhan Three Towns been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chengdu Better City have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Wuhan Three Towns in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from October 2022. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was on 1 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Chengdu Better City's record when hosting Wuhan Three Towns specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Chengdu Better City
5
Draws
1
Wuhan Three Towns
Recent Meetings
❓ Chengdu Better City vs Wuhan Three Towns H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Wuhan Three Towns?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Chengdu Better City have won 4, Wuhan Three Towns have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Chengdu Better City and Wuhan Three Towns last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 August 2026: Chengdu Better City 1-1 Wuhan Three Towns.
Who has won more matches between Chengdu Better City and Wuhan Three Towns?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chengdu Better City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chengdu Better City 50%, Wuhan Three Towns 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Chengdu Better City and 57% for Wuhan Three Towns. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Chengdu Better City keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chengdu Better City home games / Wuhan Three Towns away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Chengdu Better City vs Wuhan Three Towns Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Chengdu Better City and Wuhan Three Towns matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Chengdu Better City's games and 73% of Wuhan Three Towns's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Chengdu Better City and Wuhan Three Towns matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Chengdu Better City's matches and 57% of Wuhan Three Towns's.
Do Chengdu Better City and Wuhan Three Towns matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 87% of Chengdu Better City's recent matches and 83% of Wuhan Three Towns's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Chengdu Better City edge out Wuhan Three Towns 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chengdu Better City beat Wuhan Three Towns 1-0 at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park, Regular Season - 1, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chengdu Better City 1.86 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.11 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Chengdu Better City fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Wuhan Three Towns landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chengdu Better City attack 1.09 / defence 0.95 against Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.92 / defence 0.91, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chengdu Better City 55% | Draw 23% | Wuhan Three Towns 22%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chengdu Better City 60%, Wuhan Three Towns 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chengdu Better City's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Chengdu Better City arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.37. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Chengdu Better City (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.87 average — tighter than their form line. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.