Shandong Luneng 4-1 Dalian Zhixing – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Shandong Luneng at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shandong Luneng vs Dalian Zhixing fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Shandong Luneng host Dalian Zhixing at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 28 February 2025 at 07:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Shandong Luneng — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Shandong Luneng have posted 6W 2D 2L at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Shandong Luneng are significantly better at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shandong Luneng 1.44 xG and Dalian Zhixing 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shandong Luneng attack 0.871 / defence 0.813 | Dalian Zhixing attack 0.823 / defence 1.013. League average goals — home 1.626 / away 1.239. Data: 31 Shandong Luneng games / 1 Dalian Zhixing games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 50% | Draw 29% | Dalian Zhixing 20%. Fair-value odds: Shandong Luneng 2.00 | Draw 3.45 | Dalian Zhixing 5.00. Shandong Luneng hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shandong Luneng as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shandong Luneng offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shandong Luneng vs Dalian Zhixing | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 28 Feb 2025, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 50% | Draw 29% | Dalian Zhixing 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG Shandong Luneng 1.44 / Dalian Zhixing 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Shandong Luneng attack 0.871 / def 0.813 | Dalian Zhixing attack 0.823 / def 1.013 | league avg home 1.626 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Shandong Luneng xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Dalian Zhixing xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shandong Luneng vs Dalian Zhixing kick off?
Shandong Luneng vs Dalian Zhixing kicked off at 07:30 on Friday 28 February 2025 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Shandong Luneng vs Dalian Zhixing?
Shandong Luneng 4 - 1 Dalian Zhixing.
Where is Shandong Luneng vs Dalian Zhixing being played?
The match is being played at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Shandong Luneng vs Dalian Zhixing part of?
Shandong Luneng vs Dalian Zhixing is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shandong Luneng vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our statistical model gives Shandong Luneng a 50% chance of winning, Dalian Zhixing a 20% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shandong Luneng vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Shandong Luneng and Dalian Zhixing will score (BTTS).
Will Shandong Luneng vs Dalian Zhixing have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Dalian Zhixing?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shandong Luneng and Dalian Zhixing in?
Shandong Luneng (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Shandong Luneng home split: 2.00 PPG from 10 | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Shandong Luneng's attack at 0.87x the league average against Dalian Zhixing's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dalian Zhixing's attack versus Shandong Luneng's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.3%), 0-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
50%
2.00
29%
3.40
20%
4.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Shandong Luneng xG
Total xG
2.27
0.83
Dalian Zhixing xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
4.88
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
22%
4.58
5%
20.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 8.6 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 12.4 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 8.9 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shandong Luneng vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Shandong Luneng and Dalian Zhixing expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Shandong Luneng and 0.83 for Dalian Zhixing, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Shandong Luneng vs Dalian Zhixing?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shandong Luneng
Pre-Season
Dalian Zhixing
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Dalian Zhixing go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Feb 2025, when Shandong Luneng won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shandong Luneng's record when hosting Dalian Zhixing specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Shandong Luneng
0
Draws
3
Dalian Zhixing
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Dalian Zhixing?
From 4 meetings on record, Shandong Luneng have won 1, Dalian Zhixing have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shandong Luneng and Dalian Zhixing last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Dalian Zhixing 3-1 Shandong Luneng.
Who has won more matches between Shandong Luneng and Dalian Zhixing?
Dalian Zhixing have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shandong Luneng home games / Dalian Zhixing away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Shandong Luneng run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Dalian Zhixing.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shandong Luneng beat Dalian Zhixing 4-1 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shandong Luneng 1.44 xG and Dalian Zhixing 0.83 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Shandong Luneng beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shandong Luneng attack 0.87 / defence 0.81 against Dalian Zhixing attack 0.82 / defence 1.01, drawn from 31/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Shandong Luneng 50% | Draw 29% | Dalian Zhixing 20%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.