Qingdao Jonoon 0-1 Sichuan Jiuniu – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Qingdao Jonoon at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Qingdao Jonoon vs Sichuan Jiuniu fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Sichuan Jiuniu travel to Qingdao Youth Football Stadium to take on Qingdao Jonoon. The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 March 2025, 07:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Qingdao Jonoon's home record at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Super League appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Qingdao Jonoon are significantly better at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Sichuan Jiuniu — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Sichuan Jiuniu away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Qingdao Jonoon 1.00 PPG, Sichuan Jiuniu 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Qingdao Jonoon have won 2, Sichuan Jiuniu 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2024, ended 1–0 with Qingdao Jonoon winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Qingdao Jonoon trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Sichuan Jiuniu trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Jonoon 37% versus Sichuan Jiuniu 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Jonoon 40% | Sichuan Jiuniu 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Jonoon 1.82 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.981 / defence 1.086 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.989 / defence 1.096. League average goals — home 1.690 / away 1.212. Data: 31 Qingdao Jonoon games / 31 Sichuan Jiuniu games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 48% | Draw 25% | Sichuan Jiuniu 26%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Jonoon 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | Sichuan Jiuniu 3.85. Qingdao Jonoon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.82 / 1.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Qingdao Jonoon as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Qingdao Jonoon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.12 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Qingdao Jonoon 60% | Sichuan Jiuniu 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Jonoon vs Sichuan Jiuniu | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Qingdao Youth Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Mar 2025, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 48% | Draw 25% | Sichuan Jiuniu 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Qingdao Jonoon 1.82 / Sichuan Jiuniu 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.981 / def 1.086 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.989 / def 1.096 | league avg home 1.690 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Qingdao Jonoon (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Jonoon vs Sichuan Jiuniu kick off?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Sichuan Jiuniu kicked off at 07:30 on Saturday 1 March 2025 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Qingdao Jonoon 0 - 1 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Where is Qingdao Jonoon vs Sichuan Jiuniu being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Jonoon vs Sichuan Jiuniu part of?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Sichuan Jiuniu is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Jonoon vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Jonoon a 48% chance of winning, Sichuan Jiuniu a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Qingdao Jonoon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Qingdao Jonoon and Sichuan Jiuniu will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Jonoon vs Sichuan Jiuniu have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Sichuan Jiuniu?
Record (2 meetings): Qingdao Jonoon 2W | Draws 0 | Sichuan Jiuniu 0W.
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Sichuan Jiuniu in?
Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Sichuan Jiuniu (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Qingdao Jonoon's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Sichuan Jiuniu's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.82. The same calculation in reverse, Sichuan Jiuniu's attack versus Qingdao Jonoon's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Qingdao Jonoon Win
48%
2.06
25%
3.98
26%
3.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Total xG
3.12
1.30
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
2.06
48%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
3.79
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
16%
6.15
Win to Nil
13%
7.59
4%
23.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 10.5 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Jonoon vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Qingdao Jonoon and Sichuan Jiuniu expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Qingdao Jonoon and 1.30 for Sichuan Jiuniu, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Jonoon vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Qingdao Jonoon's recent record stands at 8W 5D 17L from 30 games, a 0.97 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-W in the last five.
Sichuan Jiuniu, meanwhile, have gone 7W 8D 15L across 30 games — 0.97 PPG, with L-L-D-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Qingdao Jonoon on 0.97 PPG, Sichuan Jiuniu on 0.97. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Qingdao Jonoon have managed 6W 3D 6L from 15 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.97 PPG overall — Qingdao Jonoon are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Sichuan Jiuniu's away record stands at 3W 4D 8L across 15 trips, a 0.87 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Qingdao Jonoon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Qingdao Jonoon are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Sichuan Jiuniu are on 0.97 scored and 1.83 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Jonoon
Current Season
Sichuan Jiuniu
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Sichuan Jiuniu in coming into this match?
Qingdao Jonoon have gone 8W 5D 17L in their last 30 games (0.97 PPG), while Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 7W 8D 15L in their last 30 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Qingdao Jonoon at home or Sichuan Jiuniu away?
Qingdao Jonoon's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Qingdao Jonoon at home: 1.40 PPG; Sichuan Jiuniu away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 30 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Sichuan Jiuniu have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Jul 2025, when Sichuan Jiuniu won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Qingdao Jonoon's record when hosting Sichuan Jiuniu specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Qingdao Jonoon
0
Draws
3
Sichuan Jiuniu
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Sichuan Jiuniu?
From 5 meetings on record, Qingdao Jonoon have won 2, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Jonoon and Sichuan Jiuniu last play each other?
They last met on 30 May 2026, when Sichuan Jiuniu 3-2 Qingdao Jonoon.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Jonoon and Sichuan Jiuniu?
Sichuan Jiuniu have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Qingdao Jonoon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Sichuan Jiuniu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Qingdao Jonoon 47%, Sichuan Jiuniu 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Qingdao Jonoon) and 47% (Sichuan Jiuniu).
On the defensive side: Qingdao Jonoon have failed to score in 33% of games; Sichuan Jiuniu in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Jonoon home games / Sichuan Jiuniu away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Qingdao Jonoon play Sichuan Jiuniu?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Qingdao Jonoon's recent matches and 53% of Sichuan Jiuniu's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Qingdao Jonoon vs Sichuan Jiuniu usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Qingdao Jonoon's recent games and 47% of Sichuan Jiuniu's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Qingdao Jonoon and Sichuan Jiuniu tend to score early?
Qingdao Jonoon have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Sichuan Jiuniu in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sichuan Jiuniu defy the odds to beat Qingdao Jonoon 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sichuan Jiuniu beat Qingdao Jonoon 0-1 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Jonoon 1.82 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 1.30 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Qingdao Jonoon fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.98 / defence 1.09 against Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.99 / defence 1.10, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Jonoon 48% | Draw 25% | Sichuan Jiuniu 26%, with Qingdao Jonoon to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Sichuan Jiuniu win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Jonoon 40%, Sichuan Jiuniu 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Qingdao Jonoon 0.97 PPG, Sichuan Jiuniu 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sichuan Jiuniu win broke the near-deadlock. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward. Sichuan Jiuniu (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.