Wuhan Three Towns 1-1 Chengdu Better City – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Chengdu Better City at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wuhan Three Towns vs Chengdu Better City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Wuhan Three Towns host Chengdu Better City at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 July 2024 at 12:35 UTC.
Form Guide
Wuhan Three Towns — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wuhan Three Towns, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium, Wuhan Three Towns have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Across all Super League games this season, Chengdu Better City have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chengdu Better City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Chengdu Better City have posted 6W 1D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Chengdu Better City are 0.90 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Wuhan Three Towns, 2 for Chengdu Better City and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Wuhan Three Towns trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Chengdu Better City trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wuhan Three Towns 67% and Chengdu Better City 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wuhan Three Towns 55% | Chengdu Better City 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wuhan Three Towns 0.84 xG and Chengdu Better City 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.644 / defence 1.009 | Chengdu Better City attack 1.299 / defence 0.769. League average goals — home 1.701 / away 1.315. Wuhan Three Towns's attack strength of 0.644 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Chengdu Better City's defence strength of 0.769 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Chengdu Better City have an above-average attack strength of 1.299 — the away xG of 1.72 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 49 Wuhan Three Towns games / 49 Chengdu Better City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 17% | Draw 25% | Chengdu Better City 57%. Fair-value odds: Wuhan Three Towns 5.88 | Draw 4.00 | Chengdu Better City 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Chengdu Better City (57%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chengdu Better City at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Wuhan Three Towns 40% | Chengdu Better City 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wuhan Three Towns vs Chengdu Better City | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Wuhan Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Jul 2024, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 17% | Draw 25% | Chengdu Better City 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 48% | xG Wuhan Three Towns 0.84 / Chengdu Better City 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.644 / def 1.009 | Chengdu Better City attack 1.299 / def 0.769 | league avg home 1.701 / away 1.315 • Poisson stance: Chengdu Better City (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Chengdu Better City xG
48%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wuhan Three Towns vs Chengdu Better City kick off?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Chengdu Better City kicked off at 12:35 on Saturday 20 July 2024 at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Chengdu Better City?
Wuhan Three Towns 1 - 1 Chengdu Better City.
Where is Wuhan Three Towns vs Chengdu Better City being played?
The match is being played at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Wuhan Three Towns vs Chengdu Better City part of?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Chengdu Better City is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Wuhan Three Towns vs Chengdu Better City?
Our statistical model gives Wuhan Three Towns a 17% chance of winning, Chengdu Better City a 57% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Chengdu Better City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Chengdu Better City?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Wuhan Three Towns and Chengdu Better City will score (BTTS).
Will Wuhan Three Towns vs Chengdu Better City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and Chengdu Better City?
Record (5 meetings): Wuhan Three Towns 1W | Draws 2 | Chengdu Better City 2W.
What form are Wuhan Three Towns and Chengdu Better City in?
Wuhan Three Towns (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. Chengdu Better City (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Wuhan Three Towns's attack rating (0.64) and Chengdu Better City's defence rating (0.77), the model arrives at 0.84 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Chengdu Better City's attack versus Wuhan Three Towns's defence, projects 1.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.8%), 0-2 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chengdu Better City Win
17%
5.80
25%
3.94
57%
1.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.4%
Away win
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Total xG
2.56
1.72
Chengdu Better City xG
5.80
17%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
1.74
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
18%
5.60
43%
2.32
Win to Nil
3%
32.46
25%
4.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 13.2 | 11.4 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.2 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wuhan Three Towns vs Chengdu Better City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Wuhan Three Towns and Chengdu Better City expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Wuhan Three Towns and 1.72 for Chengdu Better City, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Wuhan Three Towns vs Chengdu Better City?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 49 outings, Wuhan Three Towns have picked up 1.49 PPG on a 20W 13D 16L record — W-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Wuhan Three Towns is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chengdu Better City's form line: 28W 10D 11L from 49 games, 1.92 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-W. The sample for Chengdu Better City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Chengdu Better City are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Wuhan Three Towns.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Wuhan Three Towns have posted 1.38 PPG from 24 outings (9W 6D 9L).
On the road, Chengdu Better City have gone 11W 6D 7L from 24 away games — 1.62 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Wuhan Three Towns are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Chengdu Better City are on 1.96 scored and 1.02 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wuhan Three Towns have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 49 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wuhan Three Towns
Blended
Chengdu Better City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wuhan Three Towns and Chengdu Better City in coming into this match?
Wuhan Three Towns have gone 20W 13D 16L in their last 49 games (1.49 PPG), while Chengdu Better City have gone 28W 10D 11L in their last 49 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wuhan Three Towns at home or Chengdu Better City away?
Chengdu Better City's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wuhan Three Towns at home: 1.38 PPG; Chengdu Better City away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Wuhan Three Towns or Chengdu Better City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wuhan Three Towns have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Chengdu Better City in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Wuhan Three Towns and Chengdu Better City runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Wuhan Three Towns's record when hosting Chengdu Better City specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Wuhan Three Towns
5
Draws
4
Chengdu Better City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and Chengdu Better City?
From 10 meetings on record, Wuhan Three Towns have won 1, Chengdu Better City have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Wuhan Three Towns and Chengdu Better City last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Chengdu Better City 1-1 Wuhan Three Towns.
Who has won more matches between Wuhan Three Towns and Chengdu Better City?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wuhan Three Towns see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Chengdu Better City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wuhan Three Towns 50%, Chengdu Better City 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Wuhan Three Towns) and 50% (Chengdu Better City).
On the defensive side: Wuhan Three Towns have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wuhan Three Towns home games / Chengdu Better City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wuhan Three Towns play Chengdu Better City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Wuhan Three Towns's recent matches and 58% of Chengdu Better City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wuhan Three Towns vs Chengdu Better City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Wuhan Three Towns's recent games and 50% of Chengdu Better City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wuhan Three Towns and Chengdu Better City tend to score early?
Wuhan Three Towns have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Chengdu Better City in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Wuhan Three Towns and Chengdu Better City share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wuhan Three Towns and Chengdu Better City finished level at 1-1 at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Three Towns 0.84 xG and Chengdu Better City 1.72 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.64 / defence 1.01 against Chengdu Better City attack 1.30 / defence 0.77, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wuhan Three Towns 17% | Draw 25% | Chengdu Better City 57%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wuhan Three Towns 55%, Chengdu Better City 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Chengdu Better City's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Chengdu Better City arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.49. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.