Beijing Guoan 2-0 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beijing Guoan at 54% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Tianjin Teda travel to Workers' Stadium to take on Beijing Guoan. The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 July 2024, 12:35 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Beijing Guoan stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Super League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Beijing Guoan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beijing Guoan's home record at Workers' Stadium: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Super League appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Super League games this season, Tianjin Teda have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Beijing Guoan 1.60 PPG, Tianjin Teda 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Beijing Guoan, 1 for Tianjin Teda and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Apr 2024, ended 1–0 with Beijing Guoan winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Beijing Guoan in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Tianjin Teda in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Beijing Guoan 63% and Tianjin Teda 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beijing Guoan 55% | Tianjin Teda 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 2.24 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 1.304 / defence 0.951 | Tianjin Teda attack 1.171 / defence 1.006. League average goals — home 1.707 / away 1.335. Beijing Guoan carry an above-average attack strength of 1.304 — their λ of 2.24 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 49 Beijing Guoan games / 49 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 54% | Draw 22% | Tianjin Teda 24%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 1.85 | Draw 4.55 | Tianjin Teda 4.17. Beijing Guoan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.73. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.73 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (2.24 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Beijing Guoan as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beijing Guoan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.73 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 70% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Beijing Guoan 80% | Tianjin Teda 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Workers' Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Jul 2024, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 54% | Draw 22% | Tianjin Teda 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 70% | xG Beijing Guoan 2.24 / Tianjin Teda 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Beijing Guoan attack 1.304 / def 0.951 | Tianjin Teda attack 1.171 / def 1.006 | league avg home 1.707 / away 1.335 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.24
Beijing Guoan xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Tianjin Teda xG
70%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 12:35 on Sunday 21 July 2024 at Workers' Stadium.
What was the final score in Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda?
Beijing Guoan 2 - 0 Tianjin Teda.
Where is Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Workers' Stadium.
What competition is Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Beijing Guoan a 54% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 24% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Beijing Guoan and Tianjin Teda will score (BTTS).
Will Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Tianjin Teda?
Record (6 meetings): Beijing Guoan 3W | Draws 2 | Tianjin Teda 1W.
What form are Beijing Guoan and Tianjin Teda in?
Beijing Guoan (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Tianjin Teda (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Beijing Guoan's attack rating (1.30) and Tianjin Teda's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 2.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Tianjin Teda's attack versus Beijing Guoan's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 3-1 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
54%
1.86
22%
4.60
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
2 – 2
6.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.24
Beijing Guoan xG
Total xG
3.73
1.49
Tianjin Teda xG
1.86
54%
Home win
4.60
22%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.33
Clean Sheet
23%
4.42
11%
9.39
Win to Nil
12%
8.22
3%
38.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 6.7 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are Beijing Guoan and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 2.24 expected goals for Beijing Guoan and 1.49 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 3.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Beijing Guoan's recent record stands at 24W 13D 12L from 49 games, a 1.73 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Beijing Guoan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Tianjin Teda, meanwhile, have gone 17W 21D 11L across 49 games — 1.47 PPG, with L-D-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Tianjin Teda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Beijing Guoan on 1.73 PPG, Tianjin Teda on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Beijing Guoan have managed 14W 5D 5L from 24 games — 1.96 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Tianjin Teda's away record stands at 10W 6D 8L across 24 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beijing Guoan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Beijing Guoan are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Tianjin Teda are on 1.41 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beijing Guoan have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Tianjin Teda in 63%.
Last 49 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beijing Guoan
Blended
Tianjin Teda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beijing Guoan and Tianjin Teda in coming into this match?
Beijing Guoan have gone 24W 13D 12L in their last 49 games (1.73 PPG), while Tianjin Teda have gone 17W 21D 11L in their last 49 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beijing Guoan at home or Tianjin Teda away?
Beijing Guoan's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beijing Guoan at home: 1.96 PPG; Tianjin Teda away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Beijing Guoan or Tianjin Teda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beijing Guoan have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Tianjin Teda in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Beijing Guoan's record when hosting Tianjin Teda specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Beijing Guoan
4
Draws
2
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Tianjin Teda?
From 10 meetings on record, Beijing Guoan have won 4, Tianjin Teda have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Beijing Guoan and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Beijing Guoan 2-4 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Beijing Guoan and Tianjin Teda?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Beijing Guoan at 67%, Tianjin Teda at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Beijing Guoan) and 54% (Tianjin Teda). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beijing Guoan home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beijing Guoan play Tianjin Teda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Beijing Guoan's games and 71% of Tianjin Teda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Beijing Guoan's matches and 54% of Tianjin Teda's.
Do Beijing Guoan and Tianjin Teda tend to score early?
Beijing Guoan have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Tianjin Teda in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beijing Guoan cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Tianjin Teda.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan beat Tianjin Teda 2-0 at Workers' Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 2.24 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.49 xG, a combined 3.73. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Tianjin Teda landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 1.30 / defence 0.95 against Tianjin Teda attack 1.17 / defence 1.01, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 54% | Draw 22% | Tianjin Teda 24%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 55%, Tianjin Teda 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beijing Guoan 1.73 PPG, Tianjin Teda 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beijing Guoan win broke the near-deadlock. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.