York United 3-1 Valour – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates York United at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this York United vs Valour fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Valour make the trip to York Lions Stadium to face York United in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Saturday 11 May 2024 at 00:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
York United have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at York Lions Stadium, York United have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Valour's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 3W 0D 7L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Valour away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for York United, 0.90 for Valour — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — York United lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Sep 2023, ended 1–3 with Valour winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
York United half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Valour half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — York United 50% versus Valour 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (York United 54% | Valour 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects York United 1.82 xG and Valour 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: York United attack 0.927 / defence 1.144 | Valour attack 0.834 / defence 1.221. League average goals — home 1.611 / away 0.971. Valour bring a strong defensive rating of 1.221 — this is suppressing York United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 York United games / 32 Valour games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: York United 56% | Draw 27% | Valour 16%. Fair-value odds: York United 1.79 | Draw 3.70 | Valour 6.25. The model has a clear lean to York United (56%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates York United as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: York United 50% | Valour 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: York United vs Valour | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: York Lions Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 May 2024, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: York United 56% | Draw 27% | Valour 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 53% | xG York United 1.82 / Valour 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: York United attack 0.927 / def 1.144 | Valour attack 0.834 / def 1.221 | league avg home 1.611 / away 0.971 • Poisson stance: York United (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
York United xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Valour xG
53%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does York United vs Valour kick off?
York United vs Valour kicked off at 00:00 on Saturday 11 May 2024 at York Lions Stadium.
What was the final score in York United vs Valour?
York United 3 - 1 Valour.
Where is York United vs Valour being played?
The match is being played at York Lions Stadium.
What competition is York United vs Valour part of?
York United vs Valour is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win York United vs Valour?
Our statistical model gives York United a 56% chance of winning, Valour a 16% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making York United the favourite.
Will both teams score in York United vs Valour?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both York United and Valour will score (BTTS).
Will York United vs Valour have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Valour?
Record (2 meetings): York United 1W | Draws 0 | Valour 1W.
What form are York United and Valour in?
York United (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Valour (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from York United's attack rating (0.93) and Valour's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.82 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Valour's attack (0.83x) against York United's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
York United Win
56%
1.78
27%
3.64
16%
6.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
York United xG
Total xG
2.75
0.93
Valour xG
1.78
56%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
6.09
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
16%
6.20
Win to Nil
22%
4.50
3%
37.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.7 | 10.8 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for York United vs Valour?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are York United and Valour expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for York United and 0.93 for Valour, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for York United vs Valour?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
York United come into this having played 56 games, going 20W 12D 24L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-L.
On the other side, Valour sit at 1.12 PPG from 56 outings (16W 15D 25L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for York United against 1.12 for Valour. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
York United's home form reads 9W 5D 13L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.19 PPG return.
Away from home, Valour have taken 0.89 points per game from 27 outings (6W 6D 15L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
York United are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Valour are on 1.09 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
York United
Current Season
Valour
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are York United and Valour in coming into this match?
York United have gone 20W 12D 24L in their last 56 games (1.29 PPG), while Valour have gone 16W 15D 25L in their last 56 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — York United at home or Valour away?
York United's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — York United at home: 1.19 PPG; Valour away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. They last met on 28 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, York United have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Valour — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
York United
2
Draws
3
Valour
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Valour?
From 10 meetings on record, York United have won 5, Valour have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did York United and Valour last play each other?
They last met on 28 September 2025, when York United 1-0 Valour.
Who has won more matches between York United and Valour?
York United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
York United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Valour are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — York United 44%, Valour 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (York United) and 52% (Valour).
On the defensive side: York United have failed to score in 41% of games; Valour in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = York United home games / Valour away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when York United play Valour?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of York United's recent matches and 59% of Valour's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is York United vs Valour usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of York United's recent games and 52% of Valour's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do York United and Valour tend to score early?
York United have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Valour in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
York United cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Valour.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
York United beat Valour 3-1 at York Lions Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting York United 1.82 xG and Valour 0.93 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. York United beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of York United attack 0.93 / defence 1.14 against Valour attack 0.83 / defence 1.22, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it York United 56% | Draw 27% | Valour 16%, with York United to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (York United 54%, Valour 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
York United's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Valour's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — York United 1.29 PPG, Valour 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the York United win broke the near-deadlock. York United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm. Valour (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.