Pacific FC 0-1 Atlético Ottawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pacific FC at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Atlético Ottawa travel to Starlight Stadium to take on Pacific FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 May 2024, 03:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pacific FC stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Pacific FC's home record at Starlight Stadium: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Canadian Premier League appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Atlético Ottawa have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Atlético Ottawa's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Canadian Premier League this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Pacific FC 1.40 PPG, Atlético Ottawa 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Pacific FC in-play and half-time data (59 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Atlético Ottawa in-play and half-time data (59 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pacific FC 51% versus Atlético Ottawa 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pacific FC 46% | Atlético Ottawa 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pacific FC 1.16 xG and Atlético Ottawa 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pacific FC attack 0.879 / defence 0.660 | Atlético Ottawa attack 1.257 / defence 0.860. League average goals — home 1.530 / away 0.904. Atlético Ottawa have an above-average attack strength of 1.257 — the away xG of 0.75 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Pacific FC's defence rating of 0.660 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 33 Pacific FC games / 33 Atlético Ottawa games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Pacific FC 42% | Draw 39% | Atlético Ottawa 20%. Fair-value odds: Pacific FC 2.38 | Draw 2.56 | Atlético Ottawa 5.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 39% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pacific FC at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 39% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pacific FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.91 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates are neutral: Pacific FC 50% | Atlético Ottawa 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Starlight Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 May 2024, 03:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pacific FC 42% | Draw 39% | Atlético Ottawa 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 40% | xG Pacific FC 1.16 / Atlético Ottawa 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Pacific FC attack 0.879 / def 0.660 | Atlético Ottawa attack 1.257 / def 0.860 | league avg home 1.530 / away 0.904 • Poisson stance: Pacific FC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Pacific FC xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Atlético Ottawa xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa kick off?
Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa kicked off at 03:00 on Saturday 18 May 2024 at Starlight Stadium.
What was the final score in Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Pacific FC 0 - 1 Atlético Ottawa.
Where is Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa being played?
The match is being played at Starlight Stadium.
What competition is Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa part of?
Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our statistical model gives Pacific FC a 42% chance of winning, Atlético Ottawa a 20% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw — making Pacific FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Pacific FC and Atlético Ottawa will score (BTTS).
Will Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and Atlético Ottawa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pacific FC and Atlético Ottawa in?
Pacific FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Atlético Ottawa (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Pacific FC's attack rating (0.88) and Atlético Ottawa's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Atlético Ottawa's attack versus Pacific FC's defence, projects 0.75 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (33/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.5%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pacific FC Win
42%
2.41
39%
2.59
20%
5.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Pacific FC xG
Total xG
1.91
0.75
Atlético Ottawa xG
2.41
42%
Home win
2.59
39%
Draw
5.01
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
47%
2.12
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
20%
5.10
6%
15.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.9 | 11.1 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.2 | 12.9 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.9 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.5%.
How many goals are Pacific FC and Atlético Ottawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Pacific FC and 0.75 for Atlético Ottawa, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pacific FC come into this having played 59 games, going 24W 15D 20L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-L.
On the other side, Atlético Ottawa sit at 1.51 PPG from 59 outings (24W 17D 18L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pacific FC on 1.47 PPG, Atlético Ottawa on 1.51. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Pacific FC's home form reads 11W 9D 8L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Atlético Ottawa have taken 1.68 points per game from 28 outings (14W 5D 9L).
Goals in Recent Form
Pacific FC are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Atlético Ottawa are on 1.31 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pacific FC
Current Season
Atlético Ottawa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pacific FC and Atlético Ottawa in coming into this match?
Pacific FC have gone 24W 15D 20L in their last 59 games (1.47 PPG), while Atlético Ottawa have gone 24W 17D 18L in their last 59 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pacific FC at home or Atlético Ottawa away?
Atlético Ottawa's away record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pacific FC at home: 1.50 PPG; Atlético Ottawa away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Pacific FC or Atlético Ottawa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pacific FC have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Atlético Ottawa in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Aug 2024, when Atlético Ottawa won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pacific FC's record when hosting Atlético Ottawa specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Pacific FC
2
Draws
7
Atlético Ottawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and Atlético Ottawa?
From 10 meetings on record, Pacific FC have won 1, Atlético Ottawa have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pacific FC and Atlético Ottawa last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Atlético Ottawa 3-2 Pacific FC.
Who has won more matches between Pacific FC and Atlético Ottawa?
Atlético Ottawa have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pacific FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Atlético Ottawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pacific FC 54%, Atlético Ottawa 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Pacific FC) and 43% (Atlético Ottawa).
On the defensive side: Atlético Ottawa in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pacific FC home games / Atlético Ottawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pacific FC play Atlético Ottawa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Pacific FC's recent matches and 46% of Atlético Ottawa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Pacific FC's recent games and 43% of Atlético Ottawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pacific FC and Atlético Ottawa tend to score early?
Pacific FC have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Atlético Ottawa in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Atlético Ottawa defy the odds to beat Pacific FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atlético Ottawa beat Pacific FC 0-1 at Starlight Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacific FC 1.16 xG and Atlético Ottawa 0.75 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Pacific FC fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacific FC attack 0.88 / defence 0.66 against Atlético Ottawa attack 1.26 / defence 0.86, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Pacific FC 42% | Draw 39% | Atlético Ottawa 20%, with Pacific FC to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a Atlético Ottawa win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacific FC 46%, Atlético Ottawa 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pacific FC's trading profile (59 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (59 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pacific FC 1.47 PPG, Atlético Ottawa 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atlético Ottawa win broke the near-deadlock. Pacific FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.