Forge 1-2 Vancouver FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Forge at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Forge vs Vancouver FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Forge host Vancouver FC at Tim Hortons Field in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 18 May 2024 at 21:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Forge — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Tim Hortons Field, Forge have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vancouver FC stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Vancouver FC have gone 2W 0D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Forge at 1.80 PPG versus Vancouver FC's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Forge in-play tendencies (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Vancouver FC in-play tendencies (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Forge 46% versus Vancouver FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Forge 46% | Vancouver FC 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Forge 2.03 xG and Vancouver FC 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Forge attack 1.046 / defence 1.045 | Vancouver FC attack 0.893 / defence 1.302. League average goals — home 1.491 / away 0.914. Vancouver FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.302 — this is suppressing Forge's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Forge games / 33 Vancouver FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Forge 62% | Draw 26% | Vancouver FC 12%. Fair-value odds: Forge 1.61 | Draw 3.85 | Vancouver FC 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Forge (62%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Forge at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Forge 60% | Vancouver FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Forge vs Vancouver FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Tim Hortons Field • Kick-off: Saturday 18 May 2024, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Forge 62% | Draw 26% | Vancouver FC 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 53% | xG Forge 2.03 / Vancouver FC 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Forge attack 1.046 / def 1.045 | Vancouver FC attack 0.893 / def 1.302 | league avg home 1.491 / away 0.914 • Poisson stance: Forge (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
Forge xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Vancouver FC xG
53%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Forge vs Vancouver FC kick off?
Forge vs Vancouver FC kicked off at 21:00 on Saturday 18 May 2024 at Tim Hortons Field.
What was the final score in Forge vs Vancouver FC?
Forge 1 - 2 Vancouver FC.
Where is Forge vs Vancouver FC being played?
The match is being played at Tim Hortons Field.
What competition is Forge vs Vancouver FC part of?
Forge vs Vancouver FC is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Forge vs Vancouver FC?
Our statistical model gives Forge a 62% chance of winning, Vancouver FC a 12% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Forge the favourite.
Will both teams score in Forge vs Vancouver FC?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Forge and Vancouver FC will score (BTTS).
Will Forge vs Vancouver FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and Vancouver FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Forge and Vancouver FC in?
Forge (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Vancouver FC (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Forge's attack rating (1.05) and Vancouver FC's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 2.03 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Vancouver FC's attack versus Forge's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.9%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Forge Win
62%
1.62
26%
3.82
12%
8.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
Forge xG
Total xG
2.88
0.85
Vancouver FC xG
1.62
62%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
8.37
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
13%
7.62
Win to Nil
26%
3.79
2%
63.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.8 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Forge vs Vancouver FC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Forge and Vancouver FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Forge and 0.85 for Vancouver FC, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Forge vs Vancouver FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 28 outings, Forge have picked up 1.64 PPG on a 13W 7D 8L record — W-L-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Vancouver FC's form line: 8W 5D 15L from 28 games, 1.04 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-L.
Put side by side, Forge are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Vancouver FC.
Venue Form
On home soil, Forge have posted 1.54 PPG from 13 outings (5W 5D 3L).
On the road, Vancouver FC have gone 3W 2D 8L from 13 away games — 0.85 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Forge come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Forge are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Vancouver FC are on 1.00 scored and 1.79 conceded.
Defensively: Forge have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Forge
Current Season
Vancouver FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Forge and Vancouver FC in coming into this match?
Forge have gone 13W 7D 8L in their last 28 games (1.64 PPG), while Vancouver FC have gone 8W 5D 15L in their last 28 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Forge at home or Vancouver FC away?
Forge's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Forge at home: 1.54 PPG; Vancouver FC away: 0.85 PPG.
Have Forge or Vancouver FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Forge have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Vancouver FC in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 7 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Forge's record when hosting Vancouver FC specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Forge
2
Draws
1
Vancouver FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and Vancouver FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Forge have won 7, Vancouver FC have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Forge and Vancouver FC last play each other?
They last met on 7 August 2026, when Forge 0-1 Vancouver FC.
Who has won more matches between Forge and Vancouver FC?
Forge have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Forge see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches.
Vancouver FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Forge 62%, Vancouver FC 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Forge) and 54% (Vancouver FC).
On the defensive side: Forge have failed to score in 31% of games; Vancouver FC in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Forge home games / Vancouver FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Forge play Vancouver FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Forge's games and 54% of Vancouver FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Forge vs Vancouver FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Forge's recent games and 54% of Vancouver FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Forge and Vancouver FC tend to score early?
Forge have had a goal before half-time in 38% of their recent matches, Vancouver FC in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Vancouver FC defy the odds to beat Forge 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vancouver FC beat Forge 1-2 at Tim Hortons Field, Regular Season - 3, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Forge 2.03 xG and Vancouver FC 0.85 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Forge fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Vancouver FC outscored their 0.85 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Forge attack 1.05 / defence 1.04 against Vancouver FC attack 0.89 / defence 1.30, drawn from 32/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Forge 62% | Draw 26% | Vancouver FC 12%, with Forge to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a Vancouver FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Forge 46%, Vancouver FC 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Forge's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Vancouver FC's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Forge arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.04. Form was overturned, with Vancouver FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Vancouver FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.77 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.