Pacific FC 2-0 York United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pacific FC at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Pacific FC face York United.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
York United travel to Starlight Stadium to take on Pacific FC in Canadian Premier League (matchday 3). The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 May 2024 at 01:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Pacific FC have gone 4W 2D 4L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Pacific FC's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, York United stand at 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, York United have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Pacific FC 1.40 PPG, York United 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Pacific FC in-play tendencies (last 57 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
York United in-play tendencies (last 57 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pacific FC 51% versus York United 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pacific FC 46% | York United 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pacific FC 1.55 xG and York United 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pacific FC attack 0.934 / defence 0.794 | York United attack 1.048 / defence 1.053. League average goals — home 1.578 / away 1.069. Pacific FC have a tight defence (rating 0.794), which is pulling York United's projected output down. Data: built from Pacific FC's last 31 games and York United's last 31. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Pacific FC 50% | Draw 30% | York United 19%. Fair-value odds: Pacific FC 1.98 | Draw 3.28 | York United 5.23. Pacific FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pacific FC as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pacific FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 56% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Pacific FC 50% (last 10 home games) | York United 80% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
The Poisson model's sample (Pacific FC 31 games, York United 31) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pacific FC vs York United | Competition: Canadian Premier League, matchday 3 | Venue: Starlight Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024 at 01:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pacific FC 50% | Draw 30% | York United 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Pacific FC 1.55 / York United 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Pacific FC attack 0.934 / def 0.794 | York United attack 1.048 / def 1.053 | league avg home 1.578 / away 1.069 • Poisson stance: Pacific FC (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Pacific FC xG
Expected Goals
0.89
York United xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Pacific FC vs York United FAQs
What time does Pacific FC vs York United kick off?
Pacific FC vs York United kicked off at 01:00 UK time on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Starlight Stadium.
What was the final score in Pacific FC vs York United?
Pacific FC 2 - 0 York United.
Where is Pacific FC vs York United being played?
The match is being played at Starlight Stadium.
What competition is Pacific FC vs York United part of?
Pacific FC vs York United is a Canadian Premier League fixture (matchday 3) (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Pacific FC vs York United?
Our statistical model gives Pacific FC a 50% chance of winning, York United a 19% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Pacific FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pacific FC vs York United?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Pacific FC and York United will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Pacific FC vs York United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Pacific FC's attack at 0.93x the league average against York United's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, York United's attack versus Pacific FC's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Pacific FC's last 31 games and York United's last 31, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 2-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pacific FC Win
50%
1.98
30%
3.28
19%
5.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Pacific FC xG
Total xG
2.44
0.89
York United xG
1.98
50%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
5.23
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
21%
4.72
Win to Nil
21%
4.83
4%
24.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.5 | 12.0 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.3 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Pacific FC vs York United Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Pacific FC vs York United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Pacific FC and York United expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Pacific FC and 0.89 for York United, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Pacific FC vs York United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pacific FC's recent record stands at 23W 14D 20L from 57 games, a 1.46 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-L in the last five.
York United, meanwhile, have gone 20W 12D 25L across 57 games — 1.26 PPG, with L-L-W-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pacific FC on 1.46 PPG, York United on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Pacific FC have managed 10W 9D 8L from their last 27 home games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
York United's away record stands at 11W 6D 10L across their last 27 away games, a 1.44 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Pacific FC are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; York United are on 1.16 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pacific FC
Current Season
York United
Current Season
Pacific FC (Home) vs York United (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Pacific FC
Current Season
York United
Current Season
❓ Pacific FC vs York United Form FAQs
What form are Pacific FC and York United in coming into this match?
Pacific FC have gone 23W 14D 20L in their last 57 games (1.46 PPG), while York United have gone 20W 12D 25L in their last 57 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pacific FC at home or York United away?
Pacific FC's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pacific FC at home: 1.44 PPG; York United away: 1.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2024. All of them came in Canadian Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 27 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 24 Aug 2025, when York United won York United 5-1 Pacific FC.
Pacific FC's record when hosting York United specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Pacific FC
3
Draws
4
York United
Recent Meetings
❓ Pacific FC vs York United H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and York United?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Pacific FC have won 3, York United have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pacific FC and York United last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 September 2026: York United 3-4 Pacific FC.
Who has won more matches between Pacific FC and York United?
York United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pacific FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
York United see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pacific FC 52%, York United 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Pacific FC) and 59% (York United).
On the defensive side: York United in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pacific FC home games / York United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Pacific FC vs York United Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Pacific FC and York United matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Pacific FC's recent matches and 56% of York United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Pacific FC and York United matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Pacific FC's recent games and 59% of York United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pacific FC and York United matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Pacific FC's recent matches and 59% of York United's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pacific FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over York United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pacific FC beat York United 2-0 at Starlight Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacific FC 1.55 xG and York United 0.89 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. York United landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacific FC attack 0.93 / defence 0.79 against York United attack 1.05 / defence 1.05, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Pacific FC 50% | Draw 30% | York United 19%, with Pacific FC to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacific FC 46%, York United 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pacific FC's trading profile (57 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
York United's trading profile (57 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pacific FC 1.46 PPG, York United 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pacific FC win broke the near-deadlock. Pacific FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. York United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.