Vancouver FC 0-3 Atlético Ottawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atlético Ottawa at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vancouver FC vs Atlético Ottawa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre plays host to Vancouver FC versus Atlético Ottawa in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Saturday 13 July 2024 at 03:00 UTC.
Current Form
Vancouver FC's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D D L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Vancouver FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vancouver FC at Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Atlético Ottawa (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L D W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Atlético Ottawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atlético Ottawa's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Atlético Ottawa arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Vancouver FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Atlético Ottawa in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Vancouver FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Atlético Ottawa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vancouver FC 58% versus Atlético Ottawa 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vancouver FC 63% | Atlético Ottawa 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vancouver FC 1.06 xG and Atlético Ottawa 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vancouver FC attack 0.966 / defence 1.090 | Atlético Ottawa attack 1.151 / defence 0.764. League average goals — home 1.433 / away 1.174. Atlético Ottawa's defence strength of 0.764 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 41 Vancouver FC games / 41 Atlético Ottawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vancouver FC 27% | Draw 27% | Atlético Ottawa 46%. Fair-value odds: Vancouver FC 3.70 | Draw 3.70 | Atlético Ottawa 2.17. Atlético Ottawa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Atlético Ottawa as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atlético Ottawa if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Vancouver FC 60% | Atlético Ottawa 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vancouver FC vs Atlético Ottawa | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Jul 2024, 03:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vancouver FC 27% | Draw 27% | Atlético Ottawa 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Vancouver FC 1.06 / Atlético Ottawa 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Vancouver FC attack 0.966 / def 1.090 | Atlético Ottawa attack 1.151 / def 0.764 | league avg home 1.433 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: Atlético Ottawa (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Vancouver FC xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Atlético Ottawa xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vancouver FC vs Atlético Ottawa kick off?
Vancouver FC vs Atlético Ottawa kicked off at 03:00 on Saturday 13 July 2024 at Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre.
What was the final score in Vancouver FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Vancouver FC 0 - 3 Atlético Ottawa.
Where is Vancouver FC vs Atlético Ottawa being played?
The match is being played at Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre.
What competition is Vancouver FC vs Atlético Ottawa part of?
Vancouver FC vs Atlético Ottawa is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Vancouver FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our statistical model gives Vancouver FC a 27% chance of winning, Atlético Ottawa a 46% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Atlético Ottawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vancouver FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Vancouver FC and Atlético Ottawa will score (BTTS).
Will Vancouver FC vs Atlético Ottawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vancouver FC and Atlético Ottawa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vancouver FC and Atlético Ottawa in?
Vancouver FC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-W-D. Atlético Ottawa (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Vancouver FC's attack rating (0.97) and Atlético Ottawa's defence rating (0.76), the model arrives at 1.06 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Atlético Ottawa's attack (1.15x) against Vancouver FC's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.1%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atlético Ottawa Win
27%
3.77
27%
3.66
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Vancouver FC xG
Total xG
2.53
1.47
Atlético Ottawa xG
3.77
27%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
23%
4.36
35%
2.88
Win to Nil
6%
16.42
16%
6.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 11.7 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.4 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.6 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vancouver FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Vancouver FC and Atlético Ottawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Vancouver FC and 1.47 for Atlético Ottawa, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Vancouver FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Vancouver FC's recent record stands at 13W 9D 19L from 41 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Vancouver FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atlético Ottawa, meanwhile, have gone 17W 10D 14L across 41 games — 1.49 PPG, with W-L-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Atlético Ottawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Vancouver FC against 1.49 for Atlético Ottawa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Vancouver FC have managed 8W 4D 7L from 19 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Atlético Ottawa's away record stands at 8W 4D 7L across 19 trips, a 1.47 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Vancouver FC are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Atlético Ottawa are on 1.49 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vancouver FC
Blended
Atlético Ottawa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vancouver FC and Atlético Ottawa in coming into this match?
Vancouver FC have gone 13W 9D 19L in their last 41 games (1.17 PPG), while Atlético Ottawa have gone 17W 10D 14L in their last 41 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vancouver FC at home or Atlético Ottawa away?
Vancouver FC's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vancouver FC at home: 1.47 PPG; Atlético Ottawa away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Vancouver FC or Atlético Ottawa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vancouver FC have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Atlético Ottawa in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Vancouver FC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atlético Ottawa won 0-3 on 13 Jul 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vancouver FC have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Atlético Ottawa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Vancouver FC
4
Draws
4
Atlético Ottawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vancouver FC and Atlético Ottawa?
From 10 meetings on record, Vancouver FC have won 2, Atlético Ottawa have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Vancouver FC and Atlético Ottawa last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Vancouver FC 3-1 Atlético Ottawa.
Who has won more matches between Vancouver FC and Atlético Ottawa?
Atlético Ottawa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Vancouver FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Atlético Ottawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vancouver FC 58%, Atlético Ottawa 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Vancouver FC) and 42% (Atlético Ottawa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Atlético Ottawa in 32%; Vancouver FC have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vancouver FC home games / Atlético Ottawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vancouver FC play Atlético Ottawa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Vancouver FC's games and 53% of Atlético Ottawa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vancouver FC vs Atlético Ottawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Vancouver FC's matches and 42% of Atlético Ottawa's.
Do Vancouver FC and Atlético Ottawa tend to score early?
Vancouver FC have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Atlético Ottawa in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Atlético Ottawa run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Vancouver FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atlético Ottawa beat Vancouver FC 0-3 at Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre, Regular Season - 6, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vancouver FC 1.06 xG and Atlético Ottawa 1.47 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Vancouver FC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Atlético Ottawa outscored their 1.47 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vancouver FC attack 0.97 / defence 1.09 against Atlético Ottawa attack 1.15 / defence 0.76, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vancouver FC 27% | Draw 27% | Atlético Ottawa 46%, with Atlético Ottawa to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vancouver FC 63%, Atlético Ottawa 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vancouver FC's trading profile (41 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (41 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vancouver FC 1.17 PPG, Atlético Ottawa 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atlético Ottawa win broke the near-deadlock. Vancouver FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.