Anderlecht 2-1 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Anderlecht at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Anderlecht vs Charleroi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Anderlecht and Charleroi meet at Lotto Park in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 27 August 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Anderlecht (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Anderlecht have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Anderlecht's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Lotto Park this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Charleroi have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Charleroi have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Charleroi have posted 3W 5D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form ledger tips toward Anderlecht. A 0.60 PPG lead over Charleroi (1.90 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Anderlecht, 1 for Charleroi and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Dec 2022, ended 1–0 with Anderlecht winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Anderlecht — key trading statistics (37 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Charleroi — key trading statistics (37 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Anderlecht 46% versus Charleroi 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Anderlecht 46% | Charleroi 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Anderlecht 1.40 xG and Charleroi 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Anderlecht attack 1.025 / defence 0.879 | Charleroi attack 0.776 / defence 0.890. League average goals — home 1.539 / away 1.309. Data: 37 Anderlecht games / 37 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Anderlecht 49% | Draw 27% | Charleroi 24%. Fair-value odds: Anderlecht 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Charleroi 4.17. Anderlecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Anderlecht are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Anderlecht if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Anderlecht 60% | Charleroi 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Anderlecht vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Lotto Park • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Aug 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Anderlecht 49% | Draw 27% | Charleroi 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Anderlecht 1.40 / Charleroi 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Anderlecht attack 1.025 / def 0.879 | Charleroi attack 0.776 / def 0.890 | league avg home 1.539 / away 1.309 • Poisson stance: Anderlecht (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Anderlecht xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Charleroi xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Anderlecht vs Charleroi kick off?
Anderlecht vs Charleroi kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 27 August 2023 at Lotto Park.
What was the final score in Anderlecht vs Charleroi?
Anderlecht 2 - 1 Charleroi.
Where is Anderlecht vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Lotto Park.
What competition is Anderlecht vs Charleroi part of?
Anderlecht vs Charleroi is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Anderlecht vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Anderlecht a 49% chance of winning, Charleroi a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Anderlecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Anderlecht vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Anderlecht and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will Anderlecht vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Anderlecht and Charleroi?
Record (4 meetings): Anderlecht 3W | Draws 0 | Charleroi 1W.
What form are Anderlecht and Charleroi in?
Anderlecht (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Charleroi (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Anderlecht's attack at 1.02x the league average against Charleroi's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Charleroi's attack (0.78x) against Anderlecht's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Anderlecht Win
49%
2.05
27%
3.68
24%
4.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Anderlecht xG
Total xG
2.30
0.89
Charleroi xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
4.18
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
25%
4.07
Win to Nil
20%
5.01
6%
17.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 12.6 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.9 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Anderlecht vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Anderlecht and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Anderlecht and 0.89 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Anderlecht vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Anderlecht's recent record stands at 16W 7D 14L from 37 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Anderlecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Charleroi, meanwhile, have gone 14W 9D 14L across 37 games — 1.38 PPG, with D-D-L-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Charleroi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for Anderlecht against 1.38 for Charleroi. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Anderlecht have managed 8W 4D 7L from 19 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charleroi's away record stands at 7W 5D 7L across 19 trips, a 1.37 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Anderlecht are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.27 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Defensively: Anderlecht have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Anderlecht
Early Season
Charleroi
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Anderlecht and Charleroi in coming into this match?
Anderlecht have gone 16W 7D 14L in their last 37 games (1.49 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 14W 9D 14L in their last 37 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Anderlecht at home or Charleroi away?
Anderlecht's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Anderlecht at home: 1.47 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.37 PPG.
Have Anderlecht or Charleroi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Anderlecht have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Charleroi in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 26 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Charleroi have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Anderlecht won 4-0 on 3 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Anderlecht have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Charleroi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Anderlecht
1
Draws
3
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Anderlecht and Charleroi?
From 10 meetings on record, Anderlecht have won 6, Charleroi have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Anderlecht and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 26 December 2025, when Anderlecht 1-2 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Anderlecht and Charleroi?
Anderlecht have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Anderlecht 53%, Charleroi 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Anderlecht) and 53% (Charleroi).
On the defensive side: Charleroi in 37%; Anderlecht have failed to score in 32% of games; Charleroi in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Anderlecht home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Anderlecht play Charleroi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Anderlecht's recent matches and 53% of Charleroi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Anderlecht vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Anderlecht's recent games and 53% of Charleroi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Anderlecht and Charleroi tend to score early?
Anderlecht have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Anderlecht edge out Charleroi 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Anderlecht beat Charleroi 2-1 at Lotto Park, Regular Season - 5, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Anderlecht 1.40 xG and Charleroi 0.89 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Anderlecht attack 1.02 / defence 0.88 against Charleroi attack 0.78 / defence 0.89, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Anderlecht 49% | Draw 27% | Charleroi 24%, with Anderlecht to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Anderlecht 46%, Charleroi 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Anderlecht's trading profile (37 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Charleroi's trading profile (37 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Anderlecht 1.49 PPG, Charleroi 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Anderlecht win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.