Al Bataeh 1-3 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (65%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Bataeh face Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai make the trip to Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium to face Al Bataeh in Pro League, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Thursday 30 January 2025 at 13:15 UTC.
Form
Al Bataeh (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Bataeh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Bataeh at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have collected 2.60 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's form when playing away from home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are 1.90 PPG clear of Al Bataeh in recent Pro League fixtures (2.60 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Al Bataeh register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Across the last 5 meetings, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the stronger historical record — 5 wins to Al Bataeh's 0, with 0 draws in the mix.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.4 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2024, ended 1–2 with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 5 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Al Bataeh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 88% of those occasions; they lead at the break 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Bataeh 68% and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Bataeh 68% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 82%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Bataeh 0.99 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Bataeh attack 0.755 / defence 1.309 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.204 / defence 0.746. League average goals — home 1.754 / away 1.393. Al Bataeh's attack strength of 0.755 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence strength of 0.746 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have an above-average attack strength of 1.204 — the away xG of 2.19 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 39 Al Bataeh games / 38 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Bataeh 16% | Draw 20% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 65%. Fair-value odds: Al Bataeh 6.25 | Draw 5.00 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.54. The model has a clear lean to Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (65%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.18 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Bataeh 70% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Bataeh vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 30 Jan 2025, 13:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Bataeh 16% | Draw 20% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 65% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 56% | xG Al Bataeh 0.99 / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.19 • Poisson strength factors: Al Bataeh attack 0.755 / def 1.309 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.204 / def 0.746 | league avg home 1.754 / away 1.393 • Poisson stance: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Al Bataeh xG
Expected Goals
2.19
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
56%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Bataeh vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kick off?
Al Bataeh vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kicked off at 13:15 on Thursday 30 January 2025 at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Bataeh vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Al Bataeh 1 - 3 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Where is Al Bataeh vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai being played?
The match is being played at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium.
What competition is Al Bataeh vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai part of?
Al Bataeh vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Bataeh vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our statistical model gives Al Bataeh a 16% chance of winning, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 65% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Shabab Al Ahli Dubai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Bataeh vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Al Bataeh and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai will score (BTTS).
Will Al Bataeh vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Bataeh and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Record (5 meetings): Al Bataeh 0W | Draws 0 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 5W.
What form are Al Bataeh and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in?
Al Bataeh (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al Bataeh's attack rating (0.76) and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence rating (0.75), the model arrives at 0.99 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attack (1.20x) against Al Bataeh's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 2.19.
These ratings are built from 39/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.2%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.0%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Win
16%
6.39
20%
5.07
65%
1.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Al Bataeh xG
Total xG
3.18
2.19
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
6.39
16%
Home win
5.07
20%
Draw
1.55
65%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
11%
8.98
37%
2.69
Win to Nil
2%
57.34
24%
4.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 9.1 | 10.0 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 1.8 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Bataeh vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Al Bataeh and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Al Bataeh and 2.19 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Bataeh vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Bataeh's recent record stands at 12W 9D 17L from 38 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Al Bataeh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, meanwhile, have gone 28W 6D 4L across 38 games — 2.37 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shabab Al Ahli Dubai by 1.19 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Bataeh heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al Bataeh have managed 5W 4D 9L from 18 games — 1.06 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's away record stands at 12W 4D 2L across 18 trips, a 2.22 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Bataeh are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are on 2.68 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Bataeh have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 68%.
Last 38 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Bataeh
Blended
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Bataeh and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in coming into this match?
Al Bataeh have gone 12W 9D 17L in their last 38 games (1.18 PPG), while Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 28W 6D 4L in their last 38 (2.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Bataeh at home or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's away record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Bataeh at home: 1.06 PPG; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away: 2.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai won 0-6 on 4 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Bataeh have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Al Bataeh
1
Draws
7
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Bataeh and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
From 8 meetings on record, Al Bataeh have won 0, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Bataeh and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1-1 Al Bataeh.
Who has won more matches between Al Bataeh and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Bataeh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 78% for Al Bataeh, 72% for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Al Bataeh and 72% for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Bataeh home games / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Bataeh play Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Al Bataeh's games and 72% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Bataeh vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Al Bataeh's matches and 72% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's.
Do Al Bataeh and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai tend to score early?
Al Bataeh have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al Bataeh.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat Al Bataeh 1-3 at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Bataeh 0.99 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.19 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai outscored their 2.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Bataeh attack 0.76 / defence 1.31 against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.20 / defence 0.75, drawn from 39/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Bataeh 16% | Draw 20% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 65%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 65%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Bataeh 68%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 82%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Bataeh's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 2.37 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.