Dibba Al Hisn 0-3 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dibba Al Hisn vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium plays host to Dibba Al Hisn versus Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in Pro League, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Tuesday 4 February 2025 at 13:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dibba Al Hisn have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Dibba Al Hisn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dibba Al Hisn's form when playing at home: 1W 1D 3L across 5 games at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's overall Pro League record this term: 8W 2D 0L from 10 games (2.60 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's form when playing away from home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are the stronger side — 1.70 PPG clear of the hosts (2.60 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Dibba Al Hisn register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading Data
Dibba Al Hisn goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dibba Al Hisn 77% and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Dibba Al Hisn 62% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dibba Al Hisn 1.10 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dibba Al Hisn attack 0.855 / defence 1.342 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.252 / defence 0.752. League average goals — home 1.712 / away 1.427. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence strength of 0.752 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have an above-average attack strength of 1.252 — the away xG of 2.40 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 13 Dibba Al Hisn games / 39 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dibba Al Hisn 16% | Draw 18% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 66%. Fair-value odds: Dibba Al Hisn 6.25 | Draw 5.56 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.52. The model has a clear lean to Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (66%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.50. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.50 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.10 / 2.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.50 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Dibba Al Hisn 80% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dibba Al Hisn vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 4 Feb 2025, 13:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dibba Al Hisn 16% | Draw 18% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 66% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 61% | xG Dibba Al Hisn 1.10 / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.40 • Poisson strength factors: Dibba Al Hisn attack 0.855 / def 1.342 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.252 / def 0.752 | league avg home 1.712 / away 1.427 • Poisson stance: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Dibba Al Hisn xG
Expected Goals
2.40
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
61%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dibba Al Hisn vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kick off?
Dibba Al Hisn vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kicked off at 13:15 on Tuesday 4 February 2025 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What was the final score in Dibba Al Hisn vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Dibba Al Hisn 0 - 3 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Where is Dibba Al Hisn vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai being played?
The match is being played at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What competition is Dibba Al Hisn vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai part of?
Dibba Al Hisn vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Dibba Al Hisn vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our statistical model gives Dibba Al Hisn a 16% chance of winning, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 66% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Shabab Al Ahli Dubai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dibba Al Hisn vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Dibba Al Hisn and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai will score (BTTS).
Will Dibba Al Hisn vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dibba Al Hisn and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dibba Al Hisn and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in?
Dibba Al Hisn (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Dibba Al Hisn's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defensive record (0.75x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. Flip it around — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attack (1.25x) against Dibba Al Hisn's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 2.40.
These ratings are built from 13/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 9.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.0%), 0-2 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Win
16%
6.34
18%
5.48
66%
1.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
8.7%
Away win
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Dibba Al Hisn xG
Total xG
3.50
2.40
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
6.34
16%
Home win
5.48
18%
Draw
1.52
66%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
9%
11.01
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
1%
69.83
22%
4.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 7.2 | 8.7 | 6.9 | 4.2 | 2.0 |
| 1 | 3.3 | 8.0 | 9.6 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 2.2 |
| 2 | 1.8 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dibba Al Hisn vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Dibba Al Hisn and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Dibba Al Hisn and 2.40 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, a combined total of 3.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Dibba Al Hisn vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Dibba Al Hisn come into this having played 13 games, going 2W 3D 8L for 0.69 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-L. The sample for Dibba Al Hisn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai sit at 2.69 PPG from 13 outings (11W 2D 0L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai carry the stronger recent form of the two, 2.00 PPG clear of Dibba Al Hisn — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Dibba Al Hisn's home form reads 1W 1D 3L across 5 games on their own ground, a 0.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have taken 2.60 points per game from 5 outings (4W 1D 0L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dibba Al Hisn are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 2.38 conceded per game recently; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are on 2.46 scored and 0.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dibba Al Hisn have seen both teams score in 77% of their recent games; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 69%.
Last 13 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dibba Al Hisn
Blended
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dibba Al Hisn and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in coming into this match?
Dibba Al Hisn have gone 2W 3D 8L in their last 13 games (0.69 PPG), while Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 11W 2D 0L in their last 13 (2.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dibba Al Hisn at home or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's away record (2.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dibba Al Hisn at home: 0.80 PPG; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away: 2.60 PPG.
Have Dibba Al Hisn or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dibba Al Hisn have kept a clean sheet in 8% of their recent games, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since February 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Dibba Al Hisn
0
Draws
2
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dibba Al Hisn and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
From 2 meetings on record, Dibba Al Hisn have won 0, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dibba Al Hisn and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai last play each other?
They last met on 20 May 2025, when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3-2 Dibba Al Hisn.
Who has won more matches between Dibba Al Hisn and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dibba Al Hisn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for Dibba Al Hisn, 80% for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Dibba Al Hisn and 60% for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dibba Al Hisn home games / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dibba Al Hisn play Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Dibba Al Hisn's games and 80% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dibba Al Hisn vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Dibba Al Hisn's matches and 60% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's.
Do Dibba Al Hisn and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai tend to score early?
Dibba Al Hisn have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shabab Al Ahli Dubai run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Dibba Al Hisn.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat Dibba Al Hisn 0-3 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dibba Al Hisn 1.10 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.40 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Dibba Al Hisn fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dibba Al Hisn attack 0.85 / defence 1.34 against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.25 / defence 0.75, drawn from 13/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dibba Al Hisn 16% | Draw 18% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 66%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 66%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dibba Al Hisn 62%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 73%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dibba Al Hisn's trading profile (13 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did not.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (13 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 2.69 PPG against 0.69. That form edge translated into the three points. Dibba Al Hisn (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.