Sharjah FC 1-0 Dibba Al Hisn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sharjah FC at 71% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sharjah FC vs Dibba Al Hisn encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dibba Al Hisn make the trip to Sharjah Stadium to face Sharjah FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Friday 31 January 2025 at 13:15 UTC.
Form
Sharjah FC (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.40 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Sharjah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sharjah FC's home record at Sharjah Stadium: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sharjah Stadium.
Dibba Al Hisn have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Dibba Al Hisn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Dibba Al Hisn have posted 1W 2D 4L from 7 away outings — 0.71 PPG. Away from home they average 1.14 goals scored and 2.29 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 86% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.60 in Sharjah FC's favour (2.50 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sharjah FC lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2024, ended 4–1 with Sharjah FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Sharjah FC half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 75% of the time.
Dibba Al Hisn half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sharjah FC 25% versus Dibba Al Hisn 83%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sharjah FC 42% | Dibba Al Hisn 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sharjah FC 2.27 xG and Dibba Al Hisn 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sharjah FC attack 1.039 / defence 0.632 | Dibba Al Hisn attack 0.872 / defence 1.256. League average goals — home 1.737 / away 1.399. Dibba Al Hisn bring a strong defensive rating of 1.256 — this is suppressing Sharjah FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Sharjah FC's defence rating of 0.632 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 39 Sharjah FC games / 12 Dibba Al Hisn games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sharjah FC 71% | Draw 19% | Dibba Al Hisn 11%. Fair-value odds: Sharjah FC 1.41 | Draw 5.26 | Dibba Al Hisn 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Sharjah FC (71%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sharjah FC at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Sharjah FC 40% | Dibba Al Hisn 86% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sharjah FC vs Dibba Al Hisn | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Sharjah Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 31 Jan 2025, 13:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sharjah FC 71% | Draw 19% | Dibba Al Hisn 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 49% | xG Sharjah FC 2.27 / Dibba Al Hisn 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Sharjah FC attack 1.039 / def 0.632 | Dibba Al Hisn attack 0.872 / def 1.256 | league avg home 1.737 / away 1.399 • Poisson stance: Sharjah FC (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.27
Sharjah FC xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Dibba Al Hisn xG
49%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sharjah FC vs Dibba Al Hisn kick off?
Sharjah FC vs Dibba Al Hisn kicked off at 13:15 on Friday 31 January 2025 at Sharjah Stadium.
What was the final score in Sharjah FC vs Dibba Al Hisn?
Sharjah FC 1 - 0 Dibba Al Hisn.
Where is Sharjah FC vs Dibba Al Hisn being played?
The match is being played at Sharjah Stadium.
What competition is Sharjah FC vs Dibba Al Hisn part of?
Sharjah FC vs Dibba Al Hisn is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Sharjah FC vs Dibba Al Hisn?
Our statistical model gives Sharjah FC a 71% chance of winning, Dibba Al Hisn a 11% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Sharjah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sharjah FC vs Dibba Al Hisn?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Sharjah FC and Dibba Al Hisn will score (BTTS).
Will Sharjah FC vs Dibba Al Hisn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Dibba Al Hisn?
Record (1 meetings): Sharjah FC 1W | Draws 0 | Dibba Al Hisn 0W.
What form are Sharjah FC and Dibba Al Hisn in?
Sharjah FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Dibba Al Hisn (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.50 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sharjah FC's attack rating (1.04) and Dibba Al Hisn's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 2.27 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dibba Al Hisn's attack (0.87x) against Sharjah FC's defence (0.63x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from 39/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sharjah FC Win
71%
1.41
19%
5.39
11%
9.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.27
Sharjah FC xG
Total xG
3.04
0.77
Dibba Al Hisn xG
1.41
71%
Home win
5.39
19%
Draw
9.35
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
10%
9.64
Win to Nil
33%
3.06
1%
90.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.9 | 8.4 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 9.5 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.3 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.3 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sharjah FC vs Dibba Al Hisn?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Sharjah FC and Dibba Al Hisn expected to score?
The model projects 2.27 expected goals for Sharjah FC and 0.77 for Dibba Al Hisn, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Sharjah FC vs Dibba Al Hisn?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sharjah FC come into this having played 12 games, going 10W 1D 1L for 2.58 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W. The sample for Sharjah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dibba Al Hisn sit at 0.75 PPG from 12 outings (2W 3D 7L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Dibba Al Hisn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sharjah FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.83 PPG clear of Dibba Al Hisn — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Sharjah FC's home form reads 6W 0D 0L across 6 games on their own ground, a 3.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.58 PPG overall — Sharjah FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Dibba Al Hisn have taken 0.83 points per game from 6 outings (1W 2D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sharjah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sharjah FC are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game recently; Dibba Al Hisn are on 1.17 scored and 2.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sharjah FC have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games; Dibba Al Hisn in 83%.
Defensively: Sharjah FC have kept a clean sheet in 75% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sharjah FC
Blended
Dibba Al Hisn
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sharjah FC and Dibba Al Hisn in coming into this match?
Sharjah FC have gone 10W 1D 1L in their last 12 games (2.58 PPG), while Dibba Al Hisn have gone 2W 3D 7L in their last 12 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sharjah FC at home or Dibba Al Hisn away?
Sharjah FC's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sharjah FC at home: 3.00 PPG; Dibba Al Hisn away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Sharjah FC or Dibba Al Hisn been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sharjah FC have kept a clean sheet in 75% of their recent games, Dibba Al Hisn in 8%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Sharjah FC
0
Draws
0
Dibba Al Hisn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Dibba Al Hisn?
From 2 meetings on record, Sharjah FC have won 2, Dibba Al Hisn have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sharjah FC and Dibba Al Hisn last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2025, when Sharjah FC 1-0 Dibba Al Hisn.
Who has won more matches between Sharjah FC and Dibba Al Hisn?
Sharjah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sharjah FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Dibba Al Hisn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sharjah FC 17%, Dibba Al Hisn 100% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Sharjah FC) and 67% (Dibba Al Hisn). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sharjah FC keep a clean sheet in 83% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sharjah FC home games / Dibba Al Hisn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sharjah FC play Dibba Al Hisn?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 17% of Sharjah FC's games and 100% of Dibba Al Hisn's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sharjah FC vs Dibba Al Hisn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Sharjah FC's matches and 67% of Dibba Al Hisn's.
Do Sharjah FC and Dibba Al Hisn tend to score early?
Sharjah FC have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Dibba Al Hisn in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sharjah FC edge out Dibba Al Hisn 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sharjah FC beat Dibba Al Hisn 1-0 at Sharjah Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sharjah FC 2.27 xG and Dibba Al Hisn 0.77 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sharjah FC fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sharjah FC attack 1.04 / defence 0.63 against Dibba Al Hisn attack 0.87 / defence 1.26, drawn from 39/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sharjah FC 71% | Draw 19% | Dibba Al Hisn 11%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 71%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sharjah FC 42%, Dibba Al Hisn 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sharjah FC's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 75% of the time, and duly kept one.
Dibba Al Hisn's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Sharjah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.58 PPG against 0.75. Form held, and they took the win. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward. Dibba Al Hisn (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.