Ajman 4-1 Khorfakkan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ajman at 48%, yet in-form Khorfakkan provide a compelling counter-argument — this Ajman vs Khorfakkan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Ajman welcome Khorfakkan to Ajman Stadium in Pro League (matchday 26). Kick-off is Sunday 25 May 2025 at 18:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Ajman have gone 2W 3D 5L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Ajman at home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Khorfakkan stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Khorfakkan's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Khorfakkan — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 80% of Ajman's games and 60% of Khorfakkan's (from Ajman's last 10 home games and Khorfakkan's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Ajman, 1 for Khorfakkan and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 7 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 21 Jan 2025, ended Ajman 2–0 Khorfakkan — a Ajman win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Ajman trading profile (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Khorfakkan trading profile (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ajman 61% and Khorfakkan 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ajman 57% | Khorfakkan 69%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Ajman surrender their half-time lead 42% of the time, while Khorfakkan have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 40% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajman 2.21 xG and Khorfakkan 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajman attack 1.135 / defence 1.257 | Khorfakkan attack 0.945 / defence 1.257. League average goals — home 1.551 / away 1.512. Khorfakkan's defence rating of 1.257 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Ajman's projected output up. Ajman's defence rating of 1.257 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Khorfakkan's projected output up. Data: built from Ajman's last 51 games and Khorfakkan's last 51.
Result probabilities: Ajman 48% | Draw 21% | Khorfakkan 32%. Fair-value odds: Ajman 2.10 | Draw 4.81 | Khorfakkan 3.16. Ajman hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS Yes probability 75% | Total xG 4.01. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 4.01 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 75% — both xG figures (2.21 / 1.80) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ajman as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Khorfakkan (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 4.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 76% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Ajman's last 10 home games and Khorfakkan's last 10 away games) averaging 3.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 75% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Ajman 80% (last 10 home games) | Khorfakkan 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajman vs Khorfakkan | Competition: Pro League, matchday 26 | Venue: Ajman Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 25 May 2025 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajman 48% | Draw 21% | Khorfakkan 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% (Under 24%) | BTTS Yes 75% (No 25%) | xG Ajman 2.21 / Khorfakkan 1.80 • Poisson strength factors: Ajman attack 1.135 / def 1.257 | Khorfakkan attack 0.945 / def 1.257 | league avg home 1.551 / away 1.512 • Poisson stance: Ajman (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.21
Ajman xG
Expected Goals
1.80
Khorfakkan xG
75%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ajman vs Khorfakkan FAQs
What time does Ajman vs Khorfakkan kick off?
Ajman vs Khorfakkan kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Sunday 25 May 2025 at Ajman Stadium.
What was the final score in Ajman vs Khorfakkan?
Ajman 4 - 1 Khorfakkan.
Where is Ajman vs Khorfakkan being played?
The match is being played at Ajman Stadium.
What competition is Ajman vs Khorfakkan part of?
Ajman vs Khorfakkan is a Pro League fixture (matchday 26) (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Ajman vs Khorfakkan?
Our statistical model gives Ajman a 48% chance of winning, Khorfakkan a 32% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Ajman the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajman vs Khorfakkan?
Our model estimates a 75% probability that both Ajman and Khorfakkan will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Ajman vs Khorfakkan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ajman's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Khorfakkan's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.21. The same calculation in reverse, Khorfakkan's attack versus Ajman's defence, projects 1.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Ajman's last 51 games and Khorfakkan's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 8.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.0%), 2-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajman Win
48%
2.10
21%
4.81
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.2%
Draw
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.21
Ajman xG
Total xG
4.01
1.80
Khorfakkan xG
2.10
48%
Home win
4.81
21%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
75%
BTTS Yes
1.34
25%
BTTS No
3.93
Clean Sheet
17%
6.03
11%
9.15
Win to Nil
8%
12.66
3%
28.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 7.2 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 8.0 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.9 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ajman vs Khorfakkan Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajman vs Khorfakkan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.1%.
How many goals are Ajman and Khorfakkan expected to score?
The model projects 2.21 expected goals for Ajman and 1.80 for Khorfakkan, a combined total of 4.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajman vs Khorfakkan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ajman's recent record stands at 15W 15D 21L from 51 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-D in the last five.
Khorfakkan, meanwhile, have gone 15W 12D 24L across 51 games — 1.12 PPG, with D-L-D-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ajman on 1.18 PPG, Khorfakkan on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Ajman have managed 8W 6D 11L from their last 25 home games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Khorfakkan's away record stands at 6W 5D 14L across their last 25 away games, a 0.92 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Ajman are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Khorfakkan are on 1.49 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ajman have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Khorfakkan in 69%.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajman
Blended
Khorfakkan
Blended
Ajman (Home) vs Khorfakkan (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ajman
Blended
Khorfakkan
Blended
❓ Ajman vs Khorfakkan Form FAQs
What form are Ajman and Khorfakkan in coming into this match?
Ajman have gone 15W 15D 21L in their last 51 games (1.18 PPG), while Khorfakkan have gone 15W 12D 24L in their last 51 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajman at home or Khorfakkan away?
Ajman's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajman at home: 1.20 PPG; Khorfakkan away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 14 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 25 May 2025, when Ajman won Ajman 4-1 Khorfakkan.
Ajman's record when hosting Khorfakkan specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Ajman
3
Draws
2
Khorfakkan
Recent Meetings
❓ Ajman vs Khorfakkan H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ajman and Khorfakkan?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Ajman have won 5, Khorfakkan have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ajman and Khorfakkan last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 February 2026: Khorfakkan 2-5 Ajman.
Who has won more matches between Ajman and Khorfakkan?
Ajman have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ajman are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Ajman at 64%, Khorfakkan at 72%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Ajman and 72% for Khorfakkan. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajman home games / Khorfakkan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ajman vs Khorfakkan Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ajman and Khorfakkan matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Ajman's games and 72% of Khorfakkan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Ajman and Khorfakkan matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Ajman's matches and 72% of Khorfakkan's.
Do Ajman and Khorfakkan matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Ajman's recent matches and 72% of Khorfakkan's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ajman run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Khorfakkan.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajman beat Khorfakkan 4-1 at Ajman Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajman 2.21 xG and Khorfakkan 1.80 xG, a combined 4.01. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Ajman beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajman attack 1.14 / defence 1.26 against Khorfakkan attack 0.94 / defence 1.26, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajman 48% | Draw 21% | Khorfakkan 32%, with Ajman to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 75% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajman 57%, Khorfakkan 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajman's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Khorfakkan's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ajman 1.18 PPG, Khorfakkan 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ajman win broke the near-deadlock. Ajman (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.