Khorfakkan 2-4 Sharjah FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Khorfakkan at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Khorfakkan vs Sharjah FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium plays host to Khorfakkan versus Sharjah FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Thursday 22 May 2025 at 16:40 UTC.
Form
Khorfakkan (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Khorfakkan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Khorfakkan have posted 4W 5D 1L at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sharjah FC have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sharjah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Sharjah FC have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Khorfakkan. A 1.00 PPG lead over Sharjah FC (1.80 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 7 meetings, Sharjah FC have the stronger historical record — 6 wins to Khorfakkan's 1, with 0 draws in the mix.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.1 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Jan 2025, ended 0–1 with Sharjah FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Sharjah FC have won 6 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Khorfakkan goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Sharjah FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Khorfakkan 68% and Sharjah FC 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khorfakkan 68% | Sharjah FC 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khorfakkan 1.57 xG and Sharjah FC 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khorfakkan attack 1.115 / defence 0.977 | Sharjah FC attack 0.794 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.524 / away 1.448. Data: 50 Khorfakkan games / 50 Sharjah FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khorfakkan 47% | Draw 26% | Sharjah FC 27%. Fair-value odds: Khorfakkan 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Sharjah FC 3.70. Khorfakkan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Sharjah FC lead the H2H ledger, but Khorfakkan carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Khorfakkan as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Khorfakkan if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Khorfakkan 70% | Sharjah FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khorfakkan vs Sharjah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 22 May 2025, 16:40 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khorfakkan 47% | Draw 26% | Sharjah FC 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Khorfakkan 1.57 / Sharjah FC 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Khorfakkan attack 1.115 / def 0.977 | Sharjah FC attack 0.794 / def 0.923 | league avg home 1.524 / away 1.448 • Poisson stance: Khorfakkan (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Khorfakkan xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Sharjah FC xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khorfakkan vs Sharjah FC kick off?
Khorfakkan vs Sharjah FC kicked off at 16:40 on Thursday 22 May 2025 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What was the final score in Khorfakkan vs Sharjah FC?
Khorfakkan 2 - 4 Sharjah FC.
Where is Khorfakkan vs Sharjah FC being played?
The match is being played at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What competition is Khorfakkan vs Sharjah FC part of?
Khorfakkan vs Sharjah FC is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Khorfakkan vs Sharjah FC?
Our statistical model gives Khorfakkan a 47% chance of winning, Sharjah FC a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Khorfakkan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khorfakkan vs Sharjah FC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Khorfakkan and Sharjah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Khorfakkan vs Sharjah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Sharjah FC?
Record (7 meetings): Khorfakkan 1W | Draws 0 | Sharjah FC 6W.
What form are Khorfakkan and Sharjah FC in?
Khorfakkan (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-D-D. Sharjah FC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Khorfakkan's attack at 1.11x the league average against Sharjah FC's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sharjah FC's attack (0.79x) against Khorfakkan's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Khorfakkan Win
47%
2.12
26%
3.85
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Khorfakkan xG
Total xG
2.69
1.12
Sharjah FC xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
21%
4.80
Win to Nil
15%
6.51
6%
17.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.6 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.9 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khorfakkan vs Sharjah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Khorfakkan and Sharjah FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Khorfakkan and 1.12 for Sharjah FC, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Khorfakkan vs Sharjah FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Khorfakkan's recent record stands at 15W 12D 23L from 50 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Khorfakkan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sharjah FC, meanwhile, have gone 24W 15D 11L across 50 games — 1.74 PPG, with W-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Sharjah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sharjah FC by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Khorfakkan heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Khorfakkan have managed 9W 7D 9L from 25 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sharjah FC's away record stands at 12W 7D 6L across 25 trips, a 1.72 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Khorfakkan are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.96 conceded per game recently; Sharjah FC are on 1.78 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Khorfakkan have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 50 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khorfakkan
Blended
Sharjah FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khorfakkan and Sharjah FC in coming into this match?
Khorfakkan have gone 15W 12D 23L in their last 50 games (1.14 PPG), while Sharjah FC have gone 24W 15D 11L in their last 50 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khorfakkan at home or Sharjah FC away?
Sharjah FC's away record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khorfakkan at home: 1.36 PPG; Sharjah FC away: 1.72 PPG.
Have Khorfakkan or Sharjah FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Khorfakkan have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Sharjah FC in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 15 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sharjah FC won 3-0 on 1 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Khorfakkan have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sharjah FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Khorfakkan
1
Draws
8
Sharjah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Sharjah FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Khorfakkan have won 1, Sharjah FC have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Khorfakkan and Sharjah FC last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Sharjah FC 3-1 Khorfakkan.
Who has won more matches between Khorfakkan and Sharjah FC?
Sharjah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 64% for Khorfakkan, 68% for Sharjah FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Khorfakkan and 56% for Sharjah FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Khorfakkan have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khorfakkan home games / Sharjah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khorfakkan play Sharjah FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Khorfakkan's games and 68% of Sharjah FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Khorfakkan vs Sharjah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Khorfakkan's matches and 56% of Sharjah FC's.
Do Khorfakkan and Sharjah FC tend to score early?
Khorfakkan have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Sharjah FC in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sharjah FC cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Khorfakkan.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sharjah FC beat Khorfakkan 2-4 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khorfakkan 1.57 xG and Sharjah FC 1.12 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Sharjah FC outscored their 1.12 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khorfakkan attack 1.11 / defence 0.98 against Sharjah FC attack 0.79 / defence 0.92, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khorfakkan 47% | Draw 26% | Sharjah FC 27%, with Khorfakkan to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Sharjah FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khorfakkan 68%, Sharjah FC 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khorfakkan's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Sharjah FC's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sharjah FC arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.14. That form edge translated into the three points. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.76 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.