Sharjah FC 4-1 Al-Wasl FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Wasl FC at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sharjah FC vs Al-Wasl FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Wasl FC make the trip to Sharjah Stadium to face Sharjah FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Sunday 25 May 2025 at 15:10 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sharjah FC have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sharjah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sharjah FC have posted 6W 1D 3L at Sharjah Stadium — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sharjah Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Sharjah FC are significantly better at Sharjah Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Wasl FC's overall Pro League record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Wasl FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Wasl FC have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al-Wasl FC are 1.40 PPG clear of Sharjah FC in recent Pro League fixtures (2.50 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Sharjah FC, 3 for Al-Wasl FC and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Jan 2025, ended 1–0 with Sharjah FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Sharjah FC — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Al-Wasl FC — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sharjah FC 59% versus Al-Wasl FC 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sharjah FC 57% | Al-Wasl FC 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sharjah FC 1.21 xG and Al-Wasl FC 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sharjah FC attack 0.913 / defence 0.844 | Al-Wasl FC attack 1.213 / defence 0.874. League average goals — home 1.515 / away 1.501. Al-Wasl FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.213 — the away xG of 1.54 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 51 Sharjah FC games / 51 Al-Wasl FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sharjah FC 30% | Draw 26% | Al-Wasl FC 44%. Fair-value odds: Sharjah FC 3.33 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Wasl FC 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Wasl FC are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Wasl FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Sharjah FC 20% | Al-Wasl FC 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sharjah FC vs Al-Wasl FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Sharjah Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 25 May 2025, 15:10 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sharjah FC 30% | Draw 26% | Al-Wasl FC 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Sharjah FC 1.21 / Al-Wasl FC 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Sharjah FC attack 0.913 / def 0.844 | Al-Wasl FC attack 1.213 / def 0.874 | league avg home 1.515 / away 1.501 • Poisson stance: Al-Wasl FC (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Sharjah FC xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Al-Wasl FC xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sharjah FC vs Al-Wasl FC kick off?
Sharjah FC vs Al-Wasl FC kicked off at 15:10 on Sunday 25 May 2025 at Sharjah Stadium.
What was the final score in Sharjah FC vs Al-Wasl FC?
Sharjah FC 4 - 1 Al-Wasl FC.
Where is Sharjah FC vs Al-Wasl FC being played?
The match is being played at Sharjah Stadium.
What competition is Sharjah FC vs Al-Wasl FC part of?
Sharjah FC vs Al-Wasl FC is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Sharjah FC vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our statistical model gives Sharjah FC a 30% chance of winning, Al-Wasl FC a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Wasl FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sharjah FC vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Sharjah FC and Al-Wasl FC will score (BTTS).
Will Sharjah FC vs Al-Wasl FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Al-Wasl FC?
Record (7 meetings): Sharjah FC 2W | Draws 2 | Al-Wasl FC 3W.
What form are Sharjah FC and Al-Wasl FC in?
Sharjah FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Al-Wasl FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sharjah FC's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Al-Wasl FC's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. Flip it around — Al-Wasl FC's attack (1.21x) against Sharjah FC's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 1.54.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Wasl FC Win
30%
3.38
26%
3.84
44%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Sharjah FC xG
Total xG
2.75
1.54
Al-Wasl FC xG
3.38
30%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.25
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
22%
4.65
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
6%
15.72
13%
7.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 9.9 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.9 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.2 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sharjah FC vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Sharjah FC and Al-Wasl FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Sharjah FC and 1.54 for Al-Wasl FC, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Sharjah FC vs Al-Wasl FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 51 outings, Sharjah FC have picked up 1.76 PPG on a 25W 15D 11L record — D-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Sharjah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Wasl FC's form line: 34W 11D 6L from 51 games, 2.22 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-W. The sample for Al-Wasl FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Wasl FC are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sharjah FC.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sharjah FC have posted 1.76 PPG from 25 outings (12W 8D 5L).
On the road, Al-Wasl FC have gone 16W 6D 3L from 25 away games — 2.16 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Wasl FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sharjah FC are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Al-Wasl FC are on 2.35 scored and 1.14 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Wasl FC in 61%.
Defensively: Al-Wasl FC in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sharjah FC
Blended
Al-Wasl FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sharjah FC and Al-Wasl FC in coming into this match?
Sharjah FC have gone 25W 15D 11L in their last 51 games (1.76 PPG), while Al-Wasl FC have gone 34W 11D 6L in their last 51 (2.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sharjah FC at home or Al-Wasl FC away?
Al-Wasl FC's away record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sharjah FC at home: 1.76 PPG; Al-Wasl FC away: 2.16 PPG.
Have Sharjah FC or Al-Wasl FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sharjah FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Al-Wasl FC in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sharjah FC won 4-1 on 25 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sharjah FC have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Wasl FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sharjah FC
2
Draws
4
Al-Wasl FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Al-Wasl FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Sharjah FC have won 4, Al-Wasl FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sharjah FC and Al-Wasl FC last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Sharjah FC 2-1 Al-Wasl FC.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Al-Wasl FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sharjah FC 48%, Al-Wasl FC 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Sharjah FC and 76% for Al-Wasl FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sharjah FC keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Al-Wasl FC in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sharjah FC home games / Al-Wasl FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sharjah FC play Al-Wasl FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Sharjah FC's games and 64% of Al-Wasl FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sharjah FC vs Al-Wasl FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Sharjah FC's matches and 76% of Al-Wasl FC's.
Do Sharjah FC and Al-Wasl FC tend to score early?
Sharjah FC have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Al-Wasl FC in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sharjah FC run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Al-Wasl FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sharjah FC beat Al-Wasl FC 4-1 at Sharjah Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sharjah FC 1.21 xG and Al-Wasl FC 1.54 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Sharjah FC beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sharjah FC attack 0.91 / defence 0.84 against Al-Wasl FC attack 1.21 / defence 0.87, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sharjah FC 30% | Draw 26% | Al-Wasl FC 44%, with Al-Wasl FC to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Sharjah FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sharjah FC 57%, Al-Wasl FC 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sharjah FC's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Wasl FC's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Wasl FC arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 1.76. Form was overturned, with Sharjah FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Wasl FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.48 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.28 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.