Ajman 0-3 Al Nasr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Nasr at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Ajman face Al Nasr.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ajman and Al Nasr meet at Ajman Stadium in Pro League (matchday 11). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 December 2023 at 12:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Ajman have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.40 conceded. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Ajman's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al Nasr's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Al Nasr's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Ajman, 0.90 for Al Nasr — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Ajman edge it 2 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Feb 2023, ended Ajman 4–1 Al Nasr — a Ajman win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Ajman half-time and goal-timing data (last 36 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Al Nasr half-time and goal-timing data (last 36 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 57%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ajman 64% versus Al Nasr 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ajman 56% | Al Nasr 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajman 1.58 xG and Al Nasr 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajman attack 0.855 / defence 1.106 | Al Nasr attack 0.889 / defence 1.073. League average goals — home 1.720 / away 1.742. Data: built from Ajman's last 36 games and Al Nasr's last 36.
Result probabilities: Ajman 34% | Draw 26% | Al Nasr 40%. Fair-value odds: Ajman 2.91 | Draw 3.90 | Al Nasr 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (1.58 / 1.71) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al Nasr as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Nasr if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.29 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Ajman's last 10 home games and Al Nasr's last 10 away games) averaging 3.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Ajman 80% (last 10 home games) | Al Nasr 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajman vs Al Nasr | Competition: Pro League, matchday 11 | Venue: Ajman Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 December 2023 at 12:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajman 34% | Draw 26% | Al Nasr 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 66% (No 34%) | xG Ajman 1.58 / Al Nasr 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Ajman attack 0.855 / def 1.106 | Al Nasr attack 0.889 / def 1.073 | league avg home 1.720 / away 1.742 • Poisson stance: Al Nasr (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Ajman xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Al Nasr xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ajman vs Al Nasr FAQs
What time does Ajman vs Al Nasr kick off?
Ajman vs Al Nasr kicked off at 12:45 UK time on Saturday 16 December 2023 at Ajman Stadium.
What was the final score in Ajman vs Al Nasr?
Ajman 0 - 3 Al Nasr.
Where is Ajman vs Al Nasr being played?
The match is being played at Ajman Stadium.
What competition is Ajman vs Al Nasr part of?
Ajman vs Al Nasr is a Pro League fixture (matchday 11) (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Ajman vs Al Nasr?
Our statistical model gives Ajman a 34% chance of winning, Al Nasr a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al Nasr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajman vs Al Nasr?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Ajman and Al Nasr will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Ajman vs Al Nasr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Ajman's attack rating (0.85) and Al Nasr's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.58 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Nasr's attack (0.89x) against Ajman's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.71.
These ratings are built from Ajman's last 36 games and Al Nasr's last 36 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Nasr Win
34%
2.91
26%
3.90
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Ajman xG
Total xG
3.29
1.71
Al Nasr xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.97
Clean Sheet
18%
5.55
21%
4.85
Win to Nil
6%
16.15
8%
12.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.1 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.9 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ajman vs Al Nasr Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajman vs Al Nasr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Ajman and Al Nasr expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Ajman and 1.71 for Al Nasr, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajman vs Al Nasr?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ajman come into this having played 36 games, going 15W 9D 12L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-W.
On the other side, Al Nasr sit at 1.00 PPG from 36 outings (9W 9D 18L), a run that reads D-L-D-D-L across their last five.
Ajman carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Al Nasr — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Ajman's home form reads 7W 4D 6L across their last 17 home games, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Nasr have taken 0.65 points per game from their last 17 away games (2W 5D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ajman come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ajman are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Al Nasr are on 1.08 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ajman have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 36 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajman
Blended
Al Nasr
Blended
Ajman (Home) vs Al Nasr (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ajman
Blended
Al Nasr
Blended
❓ Ajman vs Al Nasr Form FAQs
What form are Ajman and Al Nasr in coming into this match?
Ajman have gone 15W 9D 12L in their last 36 games (1.50 PPG), while Al Nasr have gone 9W 9D 18L in their last 36 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajman at home or Al Nasr away?
Ajman's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajman at home: 1.47 PPG; Al Nasr away: 0.65 PPG.
Have Ajman or Al Nasr been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ajman have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Al Nasr in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to February 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 6 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ajman won Ajman 4-1 Al Nasr on 4 Feb 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ajman have gone 2W 1D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Al Nasr — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Ajman
2
Draws
4
Al Nasr
Recent Meetings
❓ Ajman vs Al Nasr H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ajman and Al Nasr?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Ajman have won 4, Al Nasr have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ajman and Al Nasr last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 September 2026: Al Nasr 1-2 Ajman.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ajman are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Al Nasr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ajman 71%, Al Nasr 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Ajman) and 59% (Al Nasr). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Nasr in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajman home games / Al Nasr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ajman vs Al Nasr Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ajman and Al Nasr matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Ajman's games and 53% of Al Nasr's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Ajman and Al Nasr matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Ajman's matches and 59% of Al Nasr's.
Do Ajman and Al Nasr matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Ajman's recent matches and 65% of Al Nasr's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al Nasr run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Ajman.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Nasr beat Ajman 0-3 at Ajman Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajman 1.58 xG and Al Nasr 1.71 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Ajman fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Al Nasr outscored their 1.71 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajman attack 0.85 / defence 1.11 against Al Nasr attack 0.89 / defence 1.07, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajman 34% | Draw 26% | Al Nasr 40%, with Al Nasr to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajman 56%, Al Nasr 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajman's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Nasr's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Ajman arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Al Nasr winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ajman (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Nasr (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.