Sharjah FC 1-1 Ajman – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sharjah FC (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sharjah FC face Ajman.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sharjah FC host Ajman at Sharjah Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 24 December 2023 at 12:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Sharjah FC — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: D D W W D. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Sharjah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sharjah FC at Sharjah Stadium this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Ajman have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ajman, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ajman have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Sharjah FC have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Sharjah FC have won 3, Ajman 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 10 Feb 2023, ended 4–0 with Sharjah FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Sharjah FC trading profile (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Ajman trading profile (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sharjah FC 46% versus Ajman 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sharjah FC 51% | Ajman 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sharjah FC 2.17 xG and Ajman 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sharjah FC attack 1.292 / defence 0.865 | Ajman attack 1.169 / defence 0.996. League average goals — home 1.690 / away 1.726. Sharjah FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.292 — their λ of 2.17 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 37 Sharjah FC games / 37 Ajman games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sharjah FC 47% | Draw 23% | Ajman 30%. Fair-value odds: Sharjah FC 2.13 | Draw 4.35 | Ajman 3.33. Sharjah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 75% | Total xG 3.92. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.92 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 75% reflects that both xG figures (2.17 / 1.75) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sharjah FC at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sharjah FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 75% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 75% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sharjah FC 70% | Ajman 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sharjah FC vs Ajman | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Sharjah Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Dec 2023, 12:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sharjah FC 47% | Draw 23% | Ajman 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 75% | xG Sharjah FC 2.17 / Ajman 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: Sharjah FC attack 1.292 / def 0.865 | Ajman attack 1.169 / def 0.996 | league avg home 1.690 / away 1.726 • Poisson stance: Sharjah FC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
Sharjah FC xG
Expected Goals
1.75
Ajman xG
75%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sharjah FC vs Ajman kick off?
Sharjah FC vs Ajman kicked off at 12:45 on Sunday 24 December 2023 at Sharjah Stadium.
What was the final score in Sharjah FC vs Ajman?
Sharjah FC 1 - 1 Ajman.
Where is Sharjah FC vs Ajman being played?
The match is being played at Sharjah Stadium.
What competition is Sharjah FC vs Ajman part of?
Sharjah FC vs Ajman is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Sharjah FC vs Ajman?
Our statistical model gives Sharjah FC a 47% chance of winning, Ajman a 30% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Sharjah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sharjah FC vs Ajman?
Our model estimates a 75% probability that both Sharjah FC and Ajman will score (BTTS).
Will Sharjah FC vs Ajman have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Ajman?
Record (4 meetings): Sharjah FC 3W | Draws 0 | Ajman 1W.
What form are Sharjah FC and Ajman in?
Sharjah FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. Ajman (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sharjah FC's attack at 1.29x the league average against Ajman's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 2.17 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ajman's attack versus Sharjah FC's defence, projects 1.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.2%), 2-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sharjah FC Win
47%
2.14
23%
4.29
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.5%
Draw
2 – 2
7.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
Sharjah FC xG
Total xG
3.92
1.75
Ajman xG
2.14
47%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
75%
BTTS Yes
1.34
25%
BTTS No
3.93
Clean Sheet
17%
5.73
11%
8.80
Win to Nil
8%
12.29
3%
29.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 7.5 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 8.2 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.9 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sharjah FC vs Ajman?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.5%.
How many goals are Sharjah FC and Ajman expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Sharjah FC and 1.75 for Ajman, a combined total of 3.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Sharjah FC vs Ajman?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sharjah FC come into this having played 37 games, going 18W 10D 9L for 1.73 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-D. The sample for Sharjah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ajman sit at 1.46 PPG from 37 outings (15W 9D 13L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Ajman is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sharjah FC on 1.73 PPG, Ajman on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sharjah FC's home form reads 7W 5D 6L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Ajman have taken 1.61 points per game from 18 outings (8W 5D 5L).
The Goals Picture
Sharjah FC are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Ajman are on 1.57 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ajman in 62%.
Defensively: Sharjah FC have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sharjah FC
Blended
Ajman
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sharjah FC and Ajman in coming into this match?
Sharjah FC have gone 18W 10D 9L in their last 37 games (1.73 PPG), while Ajman have gone 15W 9D 13L in their last 37 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sharjah FC at home or Ajman away?
Ajman's away record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sharjah FC at home: 1.44 PPG; Ajman away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Sharjah FC or Ajman been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sharjah FC have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Ajman in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sharjah FC and Ajman runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ajman go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Feb 2023, when Sharjah FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sharjah FC's record when hosting Ajman specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Sharjah FC
2
Draws
3
Ajman
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Ajman?
From 10 meetings on record, Sharjah FC have won 5, Ajman have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sharjah FC and Ajman last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Ajman 3-2 Sharjah FC.
Who has won more matches between Sharjah FC and Ajman?
Sharjah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Ajman are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sharjah FC 50%, Ajman 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Sharjah FC) and 56% (Ajman). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sharjah FC keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sharjah FC home games / Ajman away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sharjah FC play Ajman?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Sharjah FC's games and 61% of Ajman's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sharjah FC vs Ajman usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Sharjah FC's matches and 56% of Ajman's.
Do Sharjah FC and Ajman tend to score early?
Sharjah FC have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Ajman in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sharjah FC and Ajman share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sharjah Stadium, Regular Season - 12, as Sharjah FC and Ajman drew 1-1 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sharjah FC 2.17 xG and Ajman 1.75 xG, a combined 3.92. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Sharjah FC fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sharjah FC attack 1.29 / defence 0.86 against Ajman attack 1.17 / defence 1.00, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sharjah FC 47% | Draw 23% | Ajman 30%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 75% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sharjah FC 51%, Ajman 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sharjah FC's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Ajman's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sharjah FC 1.73 PPG, Ajman 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.