Al-Jazira 1-5 Ajman – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Jazira at 43% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Jazira vs Ajman encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ajman make the trip to Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium to face Al-Jazira in Pro League (matchday 10). The match kicks off on Friday 8 December 2023 at 12:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Al-Jazira have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D L D L W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Al-Jazira's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ajman's record over their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Last five: D D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Ajman have posted 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Al-Jazira's favour (1.70 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Al-Jazira's last 10 home games and Ajman's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 80% of Al-Jazira's games and 70% of Ajman's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 18 Mar 2023, ended Al-Jazira 1–1 Ajman — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Al-Jazira goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 35 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
Ajman goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 35 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Jazira 74% and Ajman 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Jazira 63% | Ajman 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Jazira 1.81 xG and Ajman 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Jazira attack 1.037 / defence 0.966 | Ajman attack 0.889 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 1.627 / away 1.814. Data: built from Al-Jazira's last 35 games and Ajman's last 35.
Result probabilities: Al-Jazira 43% | Draw 25% | Ajman 32%. Fair-value odds: Al-Jazira 2.35 | Draw 3.92 | Ajman 3.13. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 68% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% — both xG figures (1.81 / 1.56) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Jazira are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Jazira if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.37 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Jazira's last 10 home games and Ajman's last 10 away games) averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Jazira 80% (last 10 home games) | Ajman 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Jazira vs Ajman | Competition: Pro League, matchday 10 | Venue: Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 8 December 2023 at 12:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Jazira 43% | Draw 25% | Ajman 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% (Under 35%) | BTTS Yes 68% (No 32%) | xG Al-Jazira 1.81 / Ajman 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Jazira attack 1.037 / def 0.966 | Ajman attack 0.889 / def 1.075 | league avg home 1.627 / away 1.814 • Poisson stance: Al-Jazira (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Al-Jazira xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Ajman xG
68%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Jazira vs Ajman FAQs
What time does Al-Jazira vs Ajman kick off?
Al-Jazira vs Ajman kicked off at 12:45 UK time on Friday 8 December 2023 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Jazira vs Ajman?
Al-Jazira 1 - 5 Ajman.
Where is Al-Jazira vs Ajman being played?
The match is being played at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium.
What competition is Al-Jazira vs Ajman part of?
Al-Jazira vs Ajman is a Pro League fixture (matchday 10) (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Jazira vs Ajman?
Our statistical model gives Al-Jazira a 43% chance of winning, Ajman a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Jazira the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Jazira vs Ajman?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Al-Jazira and Ajman will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al-Jazira vs Ajman have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al-Jazira's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Ajman's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.81. Flip it around — Ajman's attack (0.89x) against Al-Jazira's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.56.
These ratings are built from Al-Jazira's last 35 games and Ajman's last 35 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Jazira Win
43%
2.35
25%
3.92
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Al-Jazira xG
Total xG
3.37
1.56
Ajman xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.92
25%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.08
Clean Sheet
21%
4.74
16%
6.13
Win to Nil
9%
11.14
5%
19.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.4 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 9.7 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.8 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.3 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Jazira vs Ajman Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Jazira vs Ajman?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Al-Jazira and Ajman expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Al-Jazira and 1.56 for Ajman, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Jazira vs Ajman?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Jazira's recent record stands at 18W 6D 11L from 35 games, a 1.71 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-W in the last five.
Ajman, meanwhile, have gone 14W 9D 12L across 35 games — 1.46 PPG, with D-D-L-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.71 PPG for Al-Jazira against 1.46 for Ajman. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al-Jazira have managed 9W 4D 5L from their last 18 home games — 1.72 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ajman's away record stands at 7W 5D 6L across their last 18 away games, a 1.44 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Jazira are averaging 2.03 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Ajman are on 1.51 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Jazira have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games; Ajman in 63%.
Last 35 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Jazira
Blended
Ajman
Blended
Al-Jazira (Home) vs Ajman (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Jazira
Blended
Ajman
Blended
❓ Al-Jazira vs Ajman Form FAQs
What form are Al-Jazira and Ajman in coming into this match?
Al-Jazira have gone 18W 6D 11L in their last 35 games (1.71 PPG), while Ajman have gone 14W 9D 12L in their last 35 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Jazira at home or Ajman away?
Al-Jazira's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Jazira at home: 1.72 PPG; Ajman away: 1.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 29 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ajman won Al-Jazira 1-5 Ajman on 8 Dec 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Jazira have gone 4W 0D 2L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Ajman — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al-Jazira
3
Draws
3
Ajman
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Jazira vs Ajman H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Jazira and Ajman?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Jazira have won 4, Ajman have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Jazira and Ajman last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 August 2026: Al-Jazira 3-0 Ajman.
Who has won more matches between Al-Jazira and Ajman?
Al-Jazira have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Jazira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Ajman are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Jazira 67%, Ajman 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al-Jazira) and 50% (Ajman).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Jazira home games / Ajman away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Jazira vs Ajman Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Jazira and Ajman matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Al-Jazira's games and 56% of Ajman's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al-Jazira and Ajman matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Al-Jazira's recent games and 50% of Ajman's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Jazira and Ajman matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Al-Jazira's recent matches and 78% of Ajman's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ajman run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Al-Jazira.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajman beat Al-Jazira 1-5 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Jazira 1.81 xG and Ajman 1.56 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Al-Jazira fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Ajman outscored their 1.56 projection by 3.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Jazira attack 1.04 / defence 0.97 against Ajman attack 0.89 / defence 1.07, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Jazira 43% | Draw 25% | Ajman 32%, with Al-Jazira to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Ajman win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Jazira 63%, Ajman 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Jazira's trading profile (35 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Ajman's trading profile (35 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Jazira 1.71 PPG, Ajman 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ajman win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Jazira (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ajman (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.