Vorskla Poltava 2-3 Minai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vorskla Poltava at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Vorskla Poltava face Minai.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Minai travel to Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho to take on Vorskla Poltava in Premier League (matchday 28). The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 May 2024 at 12:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Vorskla Poltava stand at 2W 1D 7L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Vorskla Poltava's form when playing at home: 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 home games (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Minai — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Minai have posted 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Vorskla Poltava at 0.70 PPG versus Minai's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Vorskla Poltava, 1 for Minai and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 5 Nov 2023, ended Vorskla Poltava 0–0 Minai — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Vorskla Poltava trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Minai trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vorskla Poltava 53% versus Minai 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Vorskla Poltava 47% | Minai 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vorskla Poltava 1.25 xG and Minai 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vorskla Poltava attack 0.824 / defence 1.268 | Minai attack 0.813 / defence 1.241. League average goals — home 1.225 / away 1.203. Minai's defence rating of 1.241 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Vorskla Poltava's projected output up. Vorskla Poltava's defence rating of 1.268 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Minai's projected output up. Data: built from Vorskla Poltava's last 57 games and Minai's last 57.
Result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 37% | Draw 27% | Minai 36%. Fair-value odds: Vorskla Poltava 2.73 | Draw 3.64 | Minai 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Vorskla Poltava as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vorskla Poltava offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Vorskla Poltava 60% (last 10 home games) | Minai 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vorskla Poltava vs Minai | Competition: Premier League, matchday 28 | Venue: Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho • Kick-off: Saturday 11 May 2024 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 37% | Draw 27% | Minai 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Vorskla Poltava 1.25 / Minai 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Vorskla Poltava attack 0.824 / def 1.268 | Minai attack 0.813 / def 1.241 | league avg home 1.225 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Vorskla Poltava (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Vorskla Poltava xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Minai xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Vorskla Poltava vs Minai FAQs
What time does Vorskla Poltava vs Minai kick off?
Vorskla Poltava vs Minai kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Saturday 11 May 2024 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho.
What was the final score in Vorskla Poltava vs Minai?
Vorskla Poltava 2 - 3 Minai.
Where is Vorskla Poltava vs Minai being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho.
What competition is Vorskla Poltava vs Minai part of?
Vorskla Poltava vs Minai is a Premier League fixture (matchday 28) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Vorskla Poltava vs Minai?
Our statistical model gives Vorskla Poltava a 37% chance of winning, Minai a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Vorskla Poltava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vorskla Poltava vs Minai?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Vorskla Poltava and Minai will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Vorskla Poltava vs Minai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Vorskla Poltava's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Minai's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. The same calculation in reverse, Minai's attack versus Vorskla Poltava's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Vorskla Poltava's last 57 games and Minai's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vorskla Poltava Win
37%
2.73
27%
3.64
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Vorskla Poltava xG
Total xG
2.49
1.24
Minai xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
11%
9.43
10%
9.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 10.3 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.8 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Vorskla Poltava vs Minai Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Vorskla Poltava vs Minai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Vorskla Poltava and Minai expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Vorskla Poltava and 1.24 for Minai, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Vorskla Poltava vs Minai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Vorskla Poltava come into this having played 57 games, going 21W 12D 24L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Minai sit at 0.91 PPG from 57 outings (11W 19D 27L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-L across their last five.
Vorskla Poltava carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Minai — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Vorskla Poltava's home form reads 11W 6D 11L across their last 28 home games, a 1.39 PPG return.
Away from home, Minai have taken 0.93 points per game from their last 28 away games (6W 8D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vorskla Poltava come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Vorskla Poltava are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Minai are on 0.75 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
Minai
Blended
Vorskla Poltava (Home) vs Minai (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
Minai
Blended
❓ Vorskla Poltava vs Minai Form FAQs
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Minai in coming into this match?
Vorskla Poltava have gone 21W 12D 24L in their last 57 games (1.32 PPG), while Minai have gone 11W 19D 27L in their last 57 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vorskla Poltava at home or Minai away?
Vorskla Poltava's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vorskla Poltava at home: 1.39 PPG; Minai away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 5 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 11 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Vorskla Poltava's record when hosting Minai specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Vorskla Poltava
1
Draws
2
Minai
Recent Meetings
❓ Vorskla Poltava vs Minai H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Minai?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Vorskla Poltava have won 2, Minai have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Vorskla Poltava and Minai last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 May 2024: Vorskla Poltava 2-3 Minai.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Vorskla Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Minai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vorskla Poltava 54%, Minai 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Vorskla Poltava) and 32% (Minai).
On the defensive side: Vorskla Poltava keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Minai in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vorskla Poltava home games / Minai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Vorskla Poltava vs Minai Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Vorskla Poltava and Minai matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Vorskla Poltava's recent matches and 50% of Minai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Vorskla Poltava and Minai matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Vorskla Poltava's recent games and 32% of Minai's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vorskla Poltava and Minai matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Vorskla Poltava's recent matches and 61% of Minai's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Minai defy the odds to beat Vorskla Poltava 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Minai beat Vorskla Poltava 2-3 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vorskla Poltava 1.25 xG and Minai 1.24 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Minai outscored their 1.24 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vorskla Poltava attack 0.82 / defence 1.27 against Minai attack 0.81 / defence 1.24, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vorskla Poltava 37% | Draw 27% | Minai 36%, with Vorskla Poltava to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Minai win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vorskla Poltava 47%, Minai 30%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Minai's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Vorskla Poltava arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.91. Form was overturned, with Minai winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Minai (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.