FC Kharkiv 3-2 Vorskla Poltava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vorskla Poltava at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Kharkiv vs Vorskla Poltava fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Vorskla Poltava travel to Stadion Livyi Bereh to take on FC Kharkiv. The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 May 2024, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, FC Kharkiv have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Kharkiv at Stadion Livyi Bereh this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — FC Kharkiv are significantly better at Stadion Livyi Bereh than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vorskla Poltava stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vorskla Poltava away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.40 PPG (FC Kharkiv) versus 0.80 (Vorskla Poltava). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for FC Kharkiv, 1 for Vorskla Poltava and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
FC Kharkiv in-play tendencies (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Vorskla Poltava in-play tendencies (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Kharkiv 45% versus Vorskla Poltava 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Kharkiv 43% | Vorskla Poltava 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Kharkiv 0.98 xG and Vorskla Poltava 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Kharkiv attack 0.977 / defence 1.291 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.701 / defence 0.869. League average goals — home 1.153 / away 1.235. Data: 56 FC Kharkiv games / 56 Vorskla Poltava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 31% | Draw 31% | Vorskla Poltava 38%. Fair-value odds: FC Kharkiv 3.23 | Draw 3.23 | Vorskla Poltava 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Vorskla Poltava as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vorskla Poltava offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.10 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: FC Kharkiv 80% | Vorskla Poltava 30%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Kharkiv vs Vorskla Poltava | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadion Livyi Bereh • Kick-off: Saturday 4 May 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 31% | Draw 31% | Vorskla Poltava 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG FC Kharkiv 0.98 / Vorskla Poltava 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: FC Kharkiv attack 0.977 / def 1.291 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.701 / def 0.869 | league avg home 1.153 / away 1.235 • Poisson stance: Vorskla Poltava (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
FC Kharkiv xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Vorskla Poltava xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Kharkiv vs Vorskla Poltava kick off?
FC Kharkiv vs Vorskla Poltava kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 4 May 2024 at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
What was the final score in FC Kharkiv vs Vorskla Poltava?
FC Kharkiv 3 - 2 Vorskla Poltava.
Where is FC Kharkiv vs Vorskla Poltava being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
What competition is FC Kharkiv vs Vorskla Poltava part of?
FC Kharkiv vs Vorskla Poltava is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win FC Kharkiv vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our statistical model gives FC Kharkiv a 31% chance of winning, Vorskla Poltava a 38% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Vorskla Poltava the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Kharkiv vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both FC Kharkiv and Vorskla Poltava will score (BTTS).
Will FC Kharkiv vs Vorskla Poltava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Vorskla Poltava?
Record (4 meetings): FC Kharkiv 1W | Draws 2 | Vorskla Poltava 1W.
What form are FC Kharkiv and Vorskla Poltava in?
FC Kharkiv (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-D-D-L. Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FC Kharkiv's attack rating (0.98) and Vorskla Poltava's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 0.98 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Vorskla Poltava's attack versus FC Kharkiv's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 0-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vorskla Poltava Win
31%
3.24
31%
3.22
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
FC Kharkiv xG
Total xG
2.10
1.12
Vorskla Poltava xG
3.24
31%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
10%
9.91
14%
7.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 13.7 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Kharkiv vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are FC Kharkiv and Vorskla Poltava expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for FC Kharkiv and 1.12 for Vorskla Poltava, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Kharkiv vs Vorskla Poltava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Kharkiv's recent record stands at 10W 21D 25L from 56 games, a 0.91 PPG return, with L-D-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for FC Kharkiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vorskla Poltava, meanwhile, have gone 21W 12D 23L across 56 games — 1.34 PPG, with L-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Vorskla Poltava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Vorskla Poltava by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Kharkiv heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FC Kharkiv have managed 7W 9D 11L from 27 games — 1.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vorskla Poltava's away record stands at 10W 6D 11L across 27 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
FC Kharkiv are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Vorskla Poltava are on 1.09 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Kharkiv
Blended
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Kharkiv and Vorskla Poltava in coming into this match?
FC Kharkiv have gone 10W 21D 25L in their last 56 games (0.91 PPG), while Vorskla Poltava have gone 21W 12D 23L in their last 56 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Kharkiv at home or Vorskla Poltava away?
Vorskla Poltava's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Kharkiv at home: 1.11 PPG; Vorskla Poltava away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Kharkiv and Vorskla Poltava runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC Kharkiv's record when hosting Vorskla Poltava specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
FC Kharkiv
2
Draws
1
Vorskla Poltava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Vorskla Poltava?
From 5 meetings on record, FC Kharkiv have won 2, Vorskla Poltava have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Kharkiv and Vorskla Poltava last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2024, when FC Kharkiv 3-2 Vorskla Poltava.
Who has won more matches between FC Kharkiv and Vorskla Poltava?
FC Kharkiv have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Kharkiv see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Vorskla Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Kharkiv 52%, Vorskla Poltava 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (FC Kharkiv) and 41% (Vorskla Poltava).
On the defensive side: FC Kharkiv have failed to score in 37% of games; Vorskla Poltava in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Kharkiv home games / Vorskla Poltava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Kharkiv play Vorskla Poltava?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of FC Kharkiv's recent matches and 48% of Vorskla Poltava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Kharkiv vs Vorskla Poltava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of FC Kharkiv's recent games and 41% of Vorskla Poltava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Kharkiv and Vorskla Poltava tend to score early?
FC Kharkiv have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Vorskla Poltava in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Kharkiv defy the odds to beat Vorskla Poltava 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Kharkiv beat Vorskla Poltava 3-2 at Stadion Livyi Bereh, Regular Season - 27, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Kharkiv 0.98 xG and Vorskla Poltava 1.12 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. FC Kharkiv beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Vorskla Poltava outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Kharkiv attack 0.98 / defence 1.29 against Vorskla Poltava attack 0.70 / defence 0.87, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Kharkiv 31% | Draw 31% | Vorskla Poltava 38%, with Vorskla Poltava to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual FC Kharkiv win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Kharkiv 43%, Vorskla Poltava 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Vorskla Poltava arrived the stronger side — 1.34 PPG against 0.91. Form was overturned, with FC Kharkiv winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Kharkiv (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.