Oleksandria 1-0 Dnipro-1 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dnipro-1 at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Oleksandria face Dnipro-1.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
CSC Nika plays host to Oleksandria versus Dnipro-1 in Premier League (matchday 28). Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024 at 12:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Oleksandria have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Oleksandria's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Dnipro-1's record over their last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). Last five: D D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Dnipro-1's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 4D 1L (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Oleksandria, 1.40 for Dnipro-1 — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Dnipro-1 edge it 2 wins to 0, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 6 Nov 2023, ended Oleksandria 0–1 Dnipro-1 — a Dnipro-1 win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Oleksandria goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Dnipro-1 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oleksandria 53% versus Dnipro-1 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oleksandria 49% | Dnipro-1 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oleksandria 0.91 xG and Dnipro-1 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oleksandria attack 0.901 / defence 1.137 | Dnipro-1 attack 1.013 / defence 0.824. League average goals — home 1.218 / away 1.193. Data: built from Oleksandria's last 57 games and Dnipro-1's last 57.
Result probabilities: Oleksandria 25% | Draw 28% | Dnipro-1 48%. Fair-value odds: Oleksandria 4.07 | Draw 3.60 | Dnipro-1 2.10. Dnipro-1 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dnipro-1 are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dnipro-1 if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.28 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 55%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Oleksandria 40% (last 10 home games) | Dnipro-1 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oleksandria vs Dnipro-1 | Competition: Premier League, matchday 28 | Venue: CSC Nika • Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oleksandria 25% | Draw 28% | Dnipro-1 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Oleksandria 0.91 / Dnipro-1 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Oleksandria attack 0.901 / def 1.137 | Dnipro-1 attack 1.013 / def 0.824 | league avg home 1.218 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Dnipro-1 (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Oleksandria xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Dnipro-1 xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Oleksandria vs Dnipro-1 FAQs
What time does Oleksandria vs Dnipro-1 kick off?
Oleksandria vs Dnipro-1 kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Sunday 12 May 2024 at CSC Nika.
What was the final score in Oleksandria vs Dnipro-1?
Oleksandria 1 - 0 Dnipro-1.
Where is Oleksandria vs Dnipro-1 being played?
The match is being played at CSC Nika.
What competition is Oleksandria vs Dnipro-1 part of?
Oleksandria vs Dnipro-1 is a Premier League fixture (matchday 28) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Oleksandria vs Dnipro-1?
Our statistical model gives Oleksandria a 25% chance of winning, Dnipro-1 a 48% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Dnipro-1 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oleksandria vs Dnipro-1?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Oleksandria and Dnipro-1 will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Oleksandria vs Dnipro-1 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Oleksandria's attack at 0.90x the league average against Dnipro-1's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 0.91 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dnipro-1's attack (1.01x) against Oleksandria's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from Oleksandria's last 57 games and Dnipro-1's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.4%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dnipro-1 Win
25%
4.07
28%
3.60
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Oleksandria xG
Total xG
2.28
1.37
Dnipro-1 xG
4.07
25%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
25%
3.95
40%
2.47
Win to Nil
6%
16.06
19%
5.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 14.1 | 9.7 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.7 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.8 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Oleksandria vs Dnipro-1 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Oleksandria vs Dnipro-1?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Oleksandria and Dnipro-1 expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Oleksandria and 1.37 for Dnipro-1, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Oleksandria vs Dnipro-1?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Oleksandria's recent record stands at 16W 23D 18L from 57 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-D in the last five.
Dnipro-1, meanwhile, have gone 34W 13D 10L across 57 games — 2.02 PPG, with D-D-D-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dnipro-1 by 0.77 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Oleksandria heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Oleksandria have managed 9W 10D 9L from their last 28 home games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dnipro-1's away record stands at 17W 7D 4L across their last 28 away games, a 2.07 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dnipro-1 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Oleksandria are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Dnipro-1 are on 1.72 scored and 0.91 conceded.
Defensively: Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Dnipro-1 in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oleksandria
Blended
Dnipro-1
Blended
Oleksandria (Home) vs Dnipro-1 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Oleksandria
Blended
Dnipro-1
Blended
❓ Oleksandria vs Dnipro-1 Form FAQs
What form are Oleksandria and Dnipro-1 in coming into this match?
Oleksandria have gone 16W 23D 18L in their last 57 games (1.25 PPG), while Dnipro-1 have gone 34W 13D 10L in their last 57 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oleksandria at home or Dnipro-1 away?
Dnipro-1's away record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oleksandria at home: 1.32 PPG; Dnipro-1 away: 2.07 PPG.
Have Oleksandria or Dnipro-1 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Dnipro-1 in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 5 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 12 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Oleksandria have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Dnipro-1 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Oleksandria
2
Draws
2
Dnipro-1
Recent Meetings
❓ Oleksandria vs Dnipro-1 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Dnipro-1?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Oleksandria have won 1, Dnipro-1 have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Oleksandria and Dnipro-1 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 May 2024: Oleksandria 1-0 Dnipro-1.
Who has won more matches between Oleksandria and Dnipro-1?
Dnipro-1 have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Oleksandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Dnipro-1 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oleksandria 50%, Dnipro-1 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Oleksandria) and 46% (Dnipro-1).
On the defensive side: Oleksandria keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Dnipro-1 in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oleksandria home games / Dnipro-1 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Oleksandria vs Dnipro-1 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Oleksandria and Dnipro-1 matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Oleksandria's recent matches and 50% of Dnipro-1's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Oleksandria and Dnipro-1 matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Oleksandria's recent games and 46% of Dnipro-1's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oleksandria and Dnipro-1 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Oleksandria's recent matches and 68% of Dnipro-1's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Oleksandria defy the odds to beat Dnipro-1 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oleksandria beat Dnipro-1 1-0 at CSC Nika, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oleksandria 0.91 xG and Dnipro-1 1.37 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Dnipro-1 landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oleksandria attack 0.90 / defence 1.14 against Dnipro-1 attack 1.01 / defence 0.82, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oleksandria 25% | Draw 28% | Dnipro-1 48%, with Dnipro-1 to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Oleksandria win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oleksandria 49%, Dnipro-1 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oleksandria's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Dnipro-1's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Dnipro-1 arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.25. Form was overturned, with Oleksandria winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Oleksandria (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line. Dnipro-1 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.