Veres Rivne 3-0 Obolon'-Brovar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Veres Rivne at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Veres Rivne face Obolon'-Brovar.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Obolon'-Brovar travel to Stadion Avanhard to take on Veres Rivne in Premier League (matchday 23). The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 April 2024 at 14:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Veres Rivne have gone 2W 3D 5L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Veres Rivne at home: 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Obolon'-Brovar stand at 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Obolon'-Brovar away from home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Veres Rivne) versus 0.60 (Obolon'-Brovar). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Veres Rivne, 0 for Obolon'-Brovar and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 1 H2H match in our data, averaging 0.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 22 Sep 2023, ended Veres Rivne 0–0 Obolon'-Brovar — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Veres Rivne trading profile (last 21 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Obolon'-Brovar trading profile (last 21 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 40% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 62% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Veres Rivne 48% versus Obolon'-Brovar 24%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Veres Rivne 33% | Obolon'-Brovar 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Veres Rivne 1.13 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Veres Rivne attack 0.935 / defence 1.133 | Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.647 / defence 1.160. League average goals — home 1.038 / away 1.302. Obolon'-Brovar's attack rating of 0.647 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.95. Data: built from Veres Rivne's last 51 games and Obolon'-Brovar's last 21.
Result probabilities: Veres Rivne 39% | Draw 30% | Obolon'-Brovar 31%. Fair-value odds: Veres Rivne 2.53 | Draw 3.34 | Obolon'-Brovar 3.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Veres Rivne as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Veres Rivne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.08 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Veres Rivne 70% (last 10 home games) | Obolon'-Brovar 20% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Veres Rivne vs Obolon'-Brovar | Competition: Premier League, matchday 23 | Venue: Stadion Avanhard • Kick-off: Saturday 6 April 2024 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Veres Rivne 39% | Draw 30% | Obolon'-Brovar 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Veres Rivne 1.13 / Obolon'-Brovar 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Veres Rivne attack 0.935 / def 1.133 | Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.647 / def 1.160 | league avg home 1.038 / away 1.302 • Poisson stance: Veres Rivne (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Veres Rivne xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Obolon'-Brovar xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Veres Rivne vs Obolon'-Brovar FAQs
What time does Veres Rivne vs Obolon'-Brovar kick off?
Veres Rivne vs Obolon'-Brovar kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Saturday 6 April 2024 at Stadion Avanhard.
What was the final score in Veres Rivne vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Veres Rivne 3 - 0 Obolon'-Brovar.
Where is Veres Rivne vs Obolon'-Brovar being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Avanhard.
What competition is Veres Rivne vs Obolon'-Brovar part of?
Veres Rivne vs Obolon'-Brovar is a Premier League fixture (matchday 23) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Veres Rivne vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our statistical model gives Veres Rivne a 39% chance of winning, Obolon'-Brovar a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Veres Rivne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Veres Rivne vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Veres Rivne and Obolon'-Brovar will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Veres Rivne vs Obolon'-Brovar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Veres Rivne's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Obolon'-Brovar's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. The same calculation in reverse, Obolon'-Brovar's attack versus Veres Rivne's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Veres Rivne's last 51 games and Obolon'-Brovar's last 21 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Veres Rivne Win
39%
2.53
30%
3.34
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Veres Rivne xG
Total xG
2.08
0.95
Obolon'-Brovar xG
2.53
39%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.41
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
15%
6.59
10%
10.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 11.9 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.4 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Veres Rivne vs Obolon'-Brovar Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Veres Rivne vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Veres Rivne and Obolon'-Brovar expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Veres Rivne and 0.95 for Obolon'-Brovar, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Veres Rivne vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 21 outings, Veres Rivne have picked up 0.76 PPG on a 3W 7D 11L record — L-L-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Obolon'-Brovar's form line: 4W 6D 11L from 21 games, 0.86 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Veres Rivne on 0.76 PPG, Obolon'-Brovar on 0.86. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Veres Rivne have posted 1.00 PPG from their last 10 home games (2W 4D 4L).
On the road, Obolon'-Brovar have gone 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Veres Rivne are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Obolon'-Brovar are on 0.57 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Obolon'-Brovar in 24%.
Last 21 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Veres Rivne
Blended
Obolon'-Brovar
Blended
Veres Rivne (Home) vs Obolon'-Brovar (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Veres Rivne
Blended
Obolon'-Brovar
Blended
❓ Veres Rivne vs Obolon'-Brovar Form FAQs
What form are Veres Rivne and Obolon'-Brovar in coming into this match?
Veres Rivne have gone 3W 7D 11L in their last 21 games (0.76 PPG), while Obolon'-Brovar have gone 4W 6D 11L in their last 21 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Veres Rivne at home or Obolon'-Brovar away?
Veres Rivne's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Veres Rivne at home: 1.00 PPG; Obolon'-Brovar away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Veres Rivne or Obolon'-Brovar been keeping clean sheets recently?
Veres Rivne have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Obolon'-Brovar in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 7 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2023. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 16 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 6 Apr 2024, when Veres Rivne won Veres Rivne 3-0 Obolon'-Brovar.
Veres Rivne's record when hosting Obolon'-Brovar specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Veres Rivne
3
Draws
2
Obolon'-Brovar
Recent Meetings
❓ Veres Rivne vs Obolon'-Brovar H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Veres Rivne and Obolon'-Brovar?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Veres Rivne have won 2, Obolon'-Brovar have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Veres Rivne and Obolon'-Brovar last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 October 2026: Obolon'-Brovar 2-0 Veres Rivne.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Veres Rivne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Obolon'-Brovar see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Veres Rivne 70%, Obolon'-Brovar 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Veres Rivne) and 30% (Obolon'-Brovar).
On the defensive side: Veres Rivne have failed to score in 30% of games; Obolon'-Brovar in 70%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Veres Rivne home games / Obolon'-Brovar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Veres Rivne vs Obolon'-Brovar Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Veres Rivne and Obolon'-Brovar matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 70% of Veres Rivne's recent matches and 20% of Obolon'-Brovar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Veres Rivne and Obolon'-Brovar matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Veres Rivne's recent games and 30% of Obolon'-Brovar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Veres Rivne and Obolon'-Brovar matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Veres Rivne's recent matches and 40% of Obolon'-Brovar's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Veres Rivne run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Obolon'-Brovar.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Veres Rivne beat Obolon'-Brovar 3-0 at Stadion Avanhard, Regular Season - 23, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Veres Rivne 1.13 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 0.95 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Veres Rivne beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Obolon'-Brovar landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Veres Rivne attack 0.94 / defence 1.13 against Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.65 / defence 1.16, drawn from 51/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Veres Rivne 39% | Draw 30% | Obolon'-Brovar 31%, with Veres Rivne to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 31% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Veres Rivne 33%, Obolon'-Brovar 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Veres Rivne's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 24% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 62% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Veres Rivne 0.76 PPG, Obolon'-Brovar 0.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Veres Rivne win broke the near-deadlock. Veres Rivne (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line. Obolon'-Brovar (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.