Chornomorets 3-2 Oleksandria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Oleksandria at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chornomorets vs Oleksandria encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Oleksandria make the trip to Stadion Chornomorets to face Chornomorets in Premier League, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Sunday 7 April 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Chornomorets's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chornomorets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chornomorets's home record at Stadion Chornomorets: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Chornomorets. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Chornomorets are significantly better at Stadion Chornomorets than their overall form suggests.
Oleksandria (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Oleksandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Oleksandria have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Oleksandria are 0.80 PPG clear of Chornomorets in recent Premier League fixtures (1.50 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Chornomorets lead 1W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.8 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2023, ended 5–1 with Chornomorets winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Chornomorets — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Oleksandria — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chornomorets 51% versus Oleksandria 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chornomorets 51% | Oleksandria 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chornomorets 1.02 xG and Oleksandria 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chornomorets attack 0.892 / defence 1.012 | Oleksandria attack 1.033 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 1.065 / away 1.287. Data: 51 Chornomorets games / 51 Oleksandria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chornomorets 28% | Draw 27% | Oleksandria 44%. Fair-value odds: Chornomorets 3.57 | Draw 3.70 | Oleksandria 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Oleksandria are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Oleksandria if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Chornomorets 30% | Oleksandria 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chornomorets vs Oleksandria | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadion Chornomorets • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Apr 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chornomorets 28% | Draw 27% | Oleksandria 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Chornomorets 1.02 / Oleksandria 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Chornomorets attack 0.892 / def 1.012 | Oleksandria attack 1.033 / def 1.079 | league avg home 1.065 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: Oleksandria (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Chornomorets xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Oleksandria xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chornomorets vs Oleksandria kick off?
Chornomorets vs Oleksandria kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 7 April 2024 at Stadion Chornomorets.
What was the final score in Chornomorets vs Oleksandria?
Chornomorets 3 - 2 Oleksandria.
Where is Chornomorets vs Oleksandria being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Chornomorets.
What competition is Chornomorets vs Oleksandria part of?
Chornomorets vs Oleksandria is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Chornomorets vs Oleksandria?
Our statistical model gives Chornomorets a 28% chance of winning, Oleksandria a 44% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Oleksandria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chornomorets vs Oleksandria?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Chornomorets and Oleksandria will score (BTTS).
Will Chornomorets vs Oleksandria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Oleksandria?
Record (4 meetings): Chornomorets 1W | Draws 2 | Oleksandria 1W.
What form are Chornomorets and Oleksandria in?
Chornomorets (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Oleksandria (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Chornomorets's attack at 0.89x the league average against Oleksandria's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Oleksandria's attack (1.03x) against Chornomorets's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oleksandria Win
28%
3.51
27%
3.65
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Chornomorets xG
Total xG
2.37
1.35
Oleksandria xG
3.51
28%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
26%
3.84
36%
2.79
Win to Nil
7%
13.48
16%
6.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 12.6 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.9 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.6 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chornomorets vs Oleksandria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Chornomorets and Oleksandria expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Chornomorets and 1.35 for Oleksandria, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Chornomorets vs Oleksandria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Chornomorets come into this having played 51 games, going 17W 10D 24L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-W. The sample for Chornomorets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Oleksandria sit at 1.33 PPG from 51 outings (16W 20D 15L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Oleksandria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Chornomorets against 1.33 for Oleksandria. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Chornomorets's home form reads 7W 5D 13L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.04 PPG return.
Away from home, Oleksandria have taken 1.08 points per game from 25 outings (5W 12D 8L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Chornomorets are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Oleksandria are on 1.16 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Defensively: Oleksandria in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chornomorets
Blended
Oleksandria
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chornomorets and Oleksandria in coming into this match?
Chornomorets have gone 17W 10D 24L in their last 51 games (1.20 PPG), while Oleksandria have gone 16W 20D 15L in their last 51 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chornomorets at home or Oleksandria away?
Oleksandria's away record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chornomorets at home: 1.04 PPG; Oleksandria away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Chornomorets or Oleksandria been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chornomorets have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Oleksandria in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Chornomorets won 1-5 on 22 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chornomorets have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Oleksandria — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Chornomorets
3
Draws
2
Oleksandria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Oleksandria?
From 7 meetings on record, Chornomorets have won 2, Oleksandria have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Chornomorets and Oleksandria last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2025, when Chornomorets 0-0 Oleksandria.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Oleksandria see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chornomorets 36%, Oleksandria 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Chornomorets) and 48% (Oleksandria).
On the defensive side: Chornomorets keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Oleksandria in 40%; Chornomorets have failed to score in 40% of games; Oleksandria in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chornomorets home games / Oleksandria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chornomorets play Oleksandria?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Chornomorets's recent matches and 52% of Oleksandria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chornomorets vs Oleksandria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Chornomorets's recent games and 48% of Oleksandria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chornomorets and Oleksandria tend to score early?
Chornomorets have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Oleksandria in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Chornomorets defy the odds to beat Oleksandria 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chornomorets beat Oleksandria 3-2 at Stadion Chornomorets, Regular Season - 23, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chornomorets 1.02 xG and Oleksandria 1.35 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Chornomorets beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chornomorets attack 0.89 / defence 1.01 against Oleksandria attack 1.03 / defence 1.08, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chornomorets 28% | Draw 27% | Oleksandria 44%, with Oleksandria to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Chornomorets win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chornomorets 51%, Oleksandria 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chornomorets's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Oleksandria's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chornomorets 1.20 PPG, Oleksandria 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chornomorets win broke the near-deadlock. Chornomorets (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Oleksandria (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.