Obolon'-Brovar 1-1 Minai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Minai at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Obolon'-Brovar vs Minai fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Obolon'-Brovar and Minai meet at Obolon Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 13 April 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Obolon'-Brovar have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Obolon'-Brovar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Obolon'-Brovar have posted 2W 3D 5L at Obolon Arena — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Minai (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Minai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Minai away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.60 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Obolon'-Brovar lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2023, ended 1–0 with Obolon'-Brovar winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Obolon'-Brovar goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 64% of games.
Minai goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Obolon'-Brovar 23% | Minai 46%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Obolon'-Brovar 32% | Minai 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Obolon'-Brovar 0.89 xG and Minai 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.688 / defence 1.023 | Minai attack 0.740 / defence 1.140. League average goals — home 1.127 / away 1.349. Obolon'-Brovar's attack strength of 0.688 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 22 Obolon'-Brovar games / 52 Minai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Obolon'-Brovar 30% | Draw 33% | Minai 37%. Fair-value odds: Obolon'-Brovar 3.33 | Draw 3.03 | Minai 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Minai at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Minai if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.91 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: Obolon'-Brovar 30% | Minai 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Obolon'-Brovar vs Minai | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Obolon Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Apr 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Obolon'-Brovar 30% | Draw 33% | Minai 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG Obolon'-Brovar 0.89 / Minai 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.688 / def 1.023 | Minai attack 0.740 / def 1.140 | league avg home 1.127 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Minai (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Obolon'-Brovar xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Minai xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Obolon'-Brovar vs Minai kick off?
Obolon'-Brovar vs Minai kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 13 April 2024 at Obolon Arena.
What was the final score in Obolon'-Brovar vs Minai?
Obolon'-Brovar 1 - 1 Minai.
Where is Obolon'-Brovar vs Minai being played?
The match is being played at Obolon Arena.
What competition is Obolon'-Brovar vs Minai part of?
Obolon'-Brovar vs Minai is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Obolon'-Brovar vs Minai?
Our statistical model gives Obolon'-Brovar a 30% chance of winning, Minai a 37% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Minai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Obolon'-Brovar vs Minai?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Obolon'-Brovar and Minai will score (BTTS).
Will Obolon'-Brovar vs Minai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Obolon'-Brovar and Minai?
Record (1 meetings): Obolon'-Brovar 1W | Draws 0 | Minai 0W.
What form are Obolon'-Brovar and Minai in?
Obolon'-Brovar (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Minai (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Obolon'-Brovar's attack rating (0.69) and Minai's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 0.89 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Minai's attack (0.74x) against Obolon'-Brovar's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 22/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Minai Win
30%
3.33
33%
3.07
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Obolon'-Brovar xG
Total xG
1.91
1.02
Minai xG
3.33
30%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.63
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
41%
2.42
Win to Nil
11%
9.23
15%
6.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.9 | 15.2 | 7.7 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.4 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Obolon'-Brovar vs Minai?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.6%.
How many goals are Obolon'-Brovar and Minai expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Obolon'-Brovar and 1.02 for Minai, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Obolon'-Brovar vs Minai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 22 outings, Obolon'-Brovar have picked up 0.82 PPG on a 4W 6D 12L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Obolon'-Brovar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Minai's form line: 2W 8D 12L from 22 games, 0.64 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-L. The sample for Minai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.82 PPG for Obolon'-Brovar against 0.64 for Minai. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Obolon'-Brovar have posted 0.91 PPG from 11 outings (2W 4D 5L).
On the road, Minai have gone 1W 3D 7L from 11 away games — 0.55 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Obolon'-Brovar are averaging 0.55 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Minai are on 0.68 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Obolon'-Brovar have seen both teams score in 23% of their recent games.
Last 22 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Obolon'-Brovar
Blended
Minai
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Obolon'-Brovar and Minai in coming into this match?
Obolon'-Brovar have gone 4W 6D 12L in their last 22 games (0.82 PPG), while Minai have gone 2W 8D 12L in their last 22 (0.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Obolon'-Brovar at home or Minai away?
Obolon'-Brovar's home record (0.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Obolon'-Brovar at home: 0.91 PPG; Minai away: 0.55 PPG.
Have Obolon'-Brovar or Minai been keeping clean sheets recently?
Obolon'-Brovar have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Minai in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Obolon'-Brovar
1
Draws
0
Minai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Obolon'-Brovar and Minai?
From 2 meetings on record, Obolon'-Brovar have won 1, Minai have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Obolon'-Brovar and Minai last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2024, when Obolon'-Brovar 1-1 Minai.
Who has won more matches between Obolon'-Brovar and Minai?
Obolon'-Brovar have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Obolon'-Brovar see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Minai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Obolon'-Brovar 27%, Minai 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 27% for Obolon'-Brovar and 36% for Minai.
On the defensive side: Obolon'-Brovar keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Obolon'-Brovar have failed to score in 54% of games; Minai in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Obolon'-Brovar home games / Minai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Obolon'-Brovar play Minai?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of Obolon'-Brovar's recent matches and 46% of Minai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Obolon'-Brovar vs Minai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Obolon'-Brovar's recent games and 36% of Minai's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Obolon'-Brovar and Minai tend to score early?
Obolon'-Brovar have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Minai in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Obolon'-Brovar and Minai share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Obolon Arena, Regular Season - 24, as Obolon'-Brovar and Minai drew 1-1 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Obolon'-Brovar 0.89 xG and Minai 1.02 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.69 / defence 1.02 against Minai attack 0.74 / defence 1.14, drawn from 22/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Obolon'-Brovar 30% | Draw 33% | Minai 37%, with Minai to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Obolon'-Brovar 32%, Minai 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 34%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 23% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Minai's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Obolon'-Brovar 0.82 PPG, Minai 0.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.