Veres Rivne 0-0 LNZ Cherkasy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Veres Rivne at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Veres Rivne face LNZ Cherkasy.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Avanhard plays host to Veres Rivne versus LNZ Cherkasy in Premier League (matchday 9). Kick-off: Saturday 30 September 2023 at 14:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Veres Rivne have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Veres Rivne's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Veres Rivne are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
LNZ Cherkasy's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
LNZ Cherkasy away from home: 1W 2D 1L from their last 4 away games — 1.25 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from their last 4 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Veres Rivne — key trading statistics (last 10 games, 4 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
LNZ Cherkasy — key trading statistics (last 10 games, 4 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Veres Rivne 50% versus LNZ Cherkasy 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Veres Rivne 40% | LNZ Cherkasy 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Veres Rivne 1.13 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Veres Rivne attack 1.049 / defence 1.037 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.796 / defence 0.943. League average goals — home 1.139 / away 1.199. LNZ Cherkasy's attack rating of 0.796 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.99. Data: built from Veres Rivne's last 37 games and LNZ Cherkasy's last 8.
Result probabilities: Veres Rivne 38% | Draw 31% | LNZ Cherkasy 31%. Fair-value odds: Veres Rivne 2.62 | Draw 3.25 | LNZ Cherkasy 3.22. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Veres Rivne are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Veres Rivne if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.11 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 65% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Veres Rivne 60% (last 10 home games) | LNZ Cherkasy 25% (last 4 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Veres Rivne vs LNZ Cherkasy | Competition: Premier League, matchday 9 | Venue: Stadion Avanhard • Kick-off: Saturday 30 September 2023 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Veres Rivne 38% | Draw 31% | LNZ Cherkasy 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Veres Rivne 1.13 / LNZ Cherkasy 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Veres Rivne attack 1.049 / def 1.037 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.796 / def 0.943 | league avg home 1.139 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: Veres Rivne (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Veres Rivne xG
Expected Goals
0.99
LNZ Cherkasy xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Veres Rivne vs LNZ Cherkasy FAQs
What time does Veres Rivne vs LNZ Cherkasy kick off?
Veres Rivne vs LNZ Cherkasy kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 30 September 2023 at Stadion Avanhard.
What was the final score in Veres Rivne vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Veres Rivne 0 - 0 LNZ Cherkasy.
Where is Veres Rivne vs LNZ Cherkasy being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Avanhard.
What competition is Veres Rivne vs LNZ Cherkasy part of?
Veres Rivne vs LNZ Cherkasy is a Premier League fixture (matchday 9) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Veres Rivne vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our statistical model gives Veres Rivne a 38% chance of winning, LNZ Cherkasy a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Veres Rivne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Veres Rivne vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Veres Rivne and LNZ Cherkasy will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Veres Rivne vs LNZ Cherkasy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Veres Rivne's attack rating (1.05) and LNZ Cherkasy's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — LNZ Cherkasy's attack (0.80x) against Veres Rivne's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from Veres Rivne's last 37 games and LNZ Cherkasy's last 8 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Veres Rivne Win
38%
2.62
31%
3.25
31%
3.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Veres Rivne xG
Total xG
2.11
0.99
LNZ Cherkasy xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
3.22
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
14%
7.06
10%
9.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 11.9 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.4 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Veres Rivne vs LNZ Cherkasy Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Veres Rivne vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Veres Rivne and LNZ Cherkasy expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Veres Rivne and 0.99 for LNZ Cherkasy, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Veres Rivne vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Veres Rivne's recent record stands at 3W 2D 5L from 10 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-D in the last five.
LNZ Cherkasy, meanwhile, have gone 3W 2D 5L across 10 games — 1.10 PPG, with L-L-D-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for Veres Rivne against 1.10 for LNZ Cherkasy. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Veres Rivne have managed 1W 1D 2L from their last 4 home games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
LNZ Cherkasy's away record stands at 1W 2D 1L across their last 4 away games, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Veres Rivne are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; LNZ Cherkasy are on 1.10 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 10 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Veres Rivne
Early Season
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
Veres Rivne (Home) vs LNZ Cherkasy (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Veres Rivne
Early Season
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
❓ Veres Rivne vs LNZ Cherkasy Form FAQs
What form are Veres Rivne and LNZ Cherkasy in coming into this match?
Veres Rivne have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 games (1.10 PPG), while LNZ Cherkasy have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Veres Rivne at home or LNZ Cherkasy away?
LNZ Cherkasy's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Veres Rivne at home: 1.00 PPG; LNZ Cherkasy away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 7 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 30 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: LNZ Cherkasy won Veres Rivne 0-3 LNZ Cherkasy on 9 Mar 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Veres Rivne have gone 0W 2D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against LNZ Cherkasy — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Veres Rivne
2
Draws
2
LNZ Cherkasy
Recent Meetings
❓ Veres Rivne vs LNZ Cherkasy H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Veres Rivne and LNZ Cherkasy?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Veres Rivne have won 3, LNZ Cherkasy have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Veres Rivne and LNZ Cherkasy last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 August 2026: LNZ Cherkasy 0-1 Veres Rivne.
Who has won more matches between Veres Rivne and LNZ Cherkasy?
Veres Rivne have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Veres Rivne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
LNZ Cherkasy see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Veres Rivne 75%, LNZ Cherkasy 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Veres Rivne) and 25% (LNZ Cherkasy).
On the defensive side: LNZ Cherkasy in 50%; LNZ Cherkasy in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Veres Rivne home games / LNZ Cherkasy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Veres Rivne vs LNZ Cherkasy Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Veres Rivne and LNZ Cherkasy matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Veres Rivne's recent matches and 25% of LNZ Cherkasy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Veres Rivne and LNZ Cherkasy matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Veres Rivne's recent games and 25% of LNZ Cherkasy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Veres Rivne and LNZ Cherkasy matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Veres Rivne's recent matches and 50% of LNZ Cherkasy's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Veres Rivne's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Avanhard, Regular Season - 9, as Veres Rivne and LNZ Cherkasy drew 0-0 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Veres Rivne 1.13 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 0.99 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Veres Rivne fell 1.1 short of their projected output. LNZ Cherkasy landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Veres Rivne attack 1.05 / defence 1.04 against LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.80 / defence 0.94, drawn from 37/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Veres Rivne 38% | Draw 31% | LNZ Cherkasy 31%, with Veres Rivne to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Veres Rivne 40%, LNZ Cherkasy 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Veres Rivne's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Veres Rivne 1.10 PPG, LNZ Cherkasy 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Veres Rivne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.