Kryvbas KR 1-3 Ruh Lviv – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Kryvbas KR at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Kryvbas KR face Ruh Lviv.

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Analysis & Preview

Ruh Lviv travel to Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva to take on Kryvbas KR in Premier League (matchday 9). The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 October 2023 at 14:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Kryvbas KR have gone 6W 2D 2L — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: D D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Kryvbas KR's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Ruh Lviv — last 10 games: 4W 5D 1L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Ruh Lviv have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (Kryvbas KR) versus 1.70 (Ruh Lviv). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Kryvbas KR have won 1, Ruh Lviv 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 May 2023, ended Kryvbas KR 1–0 Ruh Lviv — a Kryvbas KR win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Kryvbas KR trading profile (last 37 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 47% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

Ruh Lviv trading profile (last 37 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kryvbas KR 35% versus Ruh Lviv 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kryvbas KR 40% | Ruh Lviv 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Kryvbas KR 1.50 xG and Ruh Lviv 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kryvbas KR attack 1.318 / defence 1.002 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.874 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 1.082 / away 1.186. Kryvbas KR carry an above-average attack rating of 1.318 — their 1.50 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Kryvbas KR's last 38 games and Ruh Lviv's last 37.

Result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 47% | Draw 28% | Ruh Lviv 25%. Fair-value odds: Kryvbas KR 2.13 | Draw 3.63 | Ruh Lviv 3.93. Kryvbas KR hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Kryvbas KR as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kryvbas KR offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Kryvbas KR 40% (last 10 home games) | Ruh Lviv 30% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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