Ruh Lviv 1-1 Kryvbas KR – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Kryvbas KR at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Ruh Lviv face Kryvbas KR.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

Ruh Lviv welcome Kryvbas KR to Arena Lviv in Premier League (matchday 24). Kick-off is Saturday 13 April 2024 at 17:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Ruh Lviv stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Ruh Lviv's form when playing at home: 2W 7D 1L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.80 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

Kryvbas KR — last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Kryvbas KR away from home: 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 away games — 2.30 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ruh Lviv 1.80 PPG, Kryvbas KR 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Ruh Lviv, 1 for Kryvbas KR and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 Oct 2023, ended Ruh Lviv 3–1 Kryvbas KR — a Ruh Lviv win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Ruh Lviv trading profile (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Kryvbas KR trading profile (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ruh Lviv 55% versus Kryvbas KR 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ruh Lviv 42% | Kryvbas KR 42%). Note also that Kryvbas KR surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Ruh Lviv recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ruh Lviv 1.06 xG and Kryvbas KR 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruh Lviv attack 0.959 / defence 0.840 | Kryvbas KR attack 1.213 / defence 0.993. League average goals — home 1.117 / away 1.338. Kryvbas KR have an above-average attack rating of 1.213, which lifts their away xG to 1.36. Data: built from Ruh Lviv's last 53 games and Kryvbas KR's last 53.

Result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 29% | Draw 28% | Kryvbas KR 43%. Fair-value odds: Ruh Lviv 3.49 | Draw 3.54 | Kryvbas KR 2.32. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Kryvbas KR as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kryvbas KR offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.43 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Ruh Lviv 60% (last 10 home games) | Kryvbas KR 50% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights