Chornomorets 1-2 Kryvbas KR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kryvbas KR at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chornomorets vs Kryvbas KR encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Chornomorets plays host to Chornomorets versus Kryvbas KR in Premier League, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Saturday 20 April 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Chornomorets have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Chornomorets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chornomorets at Stadion Chornomorets this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Chornomorets are significantly better at Stadion Chornomorets than their overall form suggests.
Kryvbas KR (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Kryvbas KR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Kryvbas KR have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On a straight form reading, Kryvbas KR are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Chornomorets 1W, Kryvbas KR 2W, 0D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2023, ended 0–1 with Kryvbas KR winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Chornomorets goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Kryvbas KR goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chornomorets 51% versus Kryvbas KR 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chornomorets 51% | Kryvbas KR 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chornomorets 1.17 xG and Kryvbas KR 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chornomorets attack 1.058 / defence 1.075 | Kryvbas KR attack 1.207 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.115 / away 1.289. Kryvbas KR have an above-average attack strength of 1.207 — the away xG of 1.67 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 53 Chornomorets games / 54 Kryvbas KR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chornomorets 27% | Draw 24% | Kryvbas KR 49%. Fair-value odds: Chornomorets 3.70 | Draw 4.17 | Kryvbas KR 2.04. Kryvbas KR hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Kryvbas KR as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kryvbas KR if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Chornomorets 40% | Kryvbas KR 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chornomorets vs Kryvbas KR | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadion Chornomorets • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Apr 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chornomorets 27% | Draw 24% | Kryvbas KR 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Chornomorets 1.17 / Kryvbas KR 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Chornomorets attack 1.058 / def 1.075 | Kryvbas KR attack 1.207 / def 0.992 | league avg home 1.115 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Kryvbas KR (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Chornomorets xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Kryvbas KR xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chornomorets vs Kryvbas KR kick off?
Chornomorets vs Kryvbas KR kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Stadion Chornomorets.
What was the final score in Chornomorets vs Kryvbas KR?
Chornomorets 1 - 2 Kryvbas KR.
Where is Chornomorets vs Kryvbas KR being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Chornomorets.
What competition is Chornomorets vs Kryvbas KR part of?
Chornomorets vs Kryvbas KR is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Chornomorets vs Kryvbas KR?
Our statistical model gives Chornomorets a 27% chance of winning, Kryvbas KR a 49% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Kryvbas KR the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chornomorets vs Kryvbas KR?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Chornomorets and Kryvbas KR will score (BTTS).
Will Chornomorets vs Kryvbas KR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Kryvbas KR?
Record (3 meetings): Chornomorets 1W | Draws 0 | Kryvbas KR 2W.
What form are Chornomorets and Kryvbas KR in?
Chornomorets (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Kryvbas KR (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Chornomorets's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Kryvbas KR's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. Flip it around — Kryvbas KR's attack (1.21x) against Chornomorets's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.67.
These ratings are built from 53/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kryvbas KR Win
27%
3.75
24%
4.13
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Chornomorets xG
Total xG
2.84
1.67
Kryvbas KR xG
3.75
27%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
19%
5.32
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
5%
19.94
15%
6.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 9.8 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.4 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.7 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chornomorets vs Kryvbas KR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Chornomorets and Kryvbas KR expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Chornomorets and 1.67 for Kryvbas KR, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Chornomorets vs Kryvbas KR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Chornomorets come into this having played 53 games, going 18W 10D 25L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-L. The sample for Chornomorets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kryvbas KR sit at 1.68 PPG from 53 outings (26W 11D 16L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Kryvbas KR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kryvbas KR carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Chornomorets — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Chornomorets's home form reads 8W 5D 13L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Kryvbas KR have taken 1.50 points per game from 26 outings (11W 6D 9L).
Attack vs Defence
Chornomorets are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Kryvbas KR are on 1.28 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Kryvbas KR in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chornomorets
Blended
Kryvbas KR
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chornomorets and Kryvbas KR in coming into this match?
Chornomorets have gone 18W 10D 25L in their last 53 games (1.21 PPG), while Kryvbas KR have gone 26W 11D 16L in their last 53 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chornomorets at home or Kryvbas KR away?
Kryvbas KR's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chornomorets at home: 1.12 PPG; Kryvbas KR away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Chornomorets or Kryvbas KR been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chornomorets have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Kryvbas KR in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 December 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Kryvbas KR go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chornomorets have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Kryvbas KR — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Chornomorets
0
Draws
5
Kryvbas KR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Kryvbas KR?
From 6 meetings on record, Chornomorets have won 1, Kryvbas KR have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chornomorets and Kryvbas KR last play each other?
They last met on 7 December 2024, when Chornomorets 1-3 Kryvbas KR.
Who has won more matches between Chornomorets and Kryvbas KR?
Kryvbas KR have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Kryvbas KR see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chornomorets 38%, Kryvbas KR 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Chornomorets) and 42% (Kryvbas KR).
On the defensive side: Chornomorets keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Kryvbas KR in 35%; Chornomorets have failed to score in 38% of games; Kryvbas KR in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chornomorets home games / Kryvbas KR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chornomorets play Kryvbas KR?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Chornomorets's recent matches and 42% of Kryvbas KR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chornomorets vs Kryvbas KR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Chornomorets's recent games and 42% of Kryvbas KR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chornomorets and Kryvbas KR tend to score early?
Chornomorets have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Kryvbas KR in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kryvbas KR edge out Chornomorets 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kryvbas KR beat Chornomorets 1-2 at Stadion Chornomorets, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chornomorets 1.17 xG and Kryvbas KR 1.67 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chornomorets attack 1.06 / defence 1.07 against Kryvbas KR attack 1.21 / defence 0.99, drawn from 53/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chornomorets 27% | Draw 24% | Kryvbas KR 49%, with Kryvbas KR to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chornomorets 51%, Kryvbas KR 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chornomorets's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Kryvbas KR's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Kryvbas KR arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.