Polessya 1-1 Dnipro-1 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dnipro-1 at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Polessya vs Dnipro-1 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Polessya host Dnipro-1 at Tsentralnyi Stadion in Premier League (matchday 17). Kick-off is Friday 8 December 2023 at 13:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Polessya — last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W D W D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, Polessya have gone 4W 2D 1L in their last 7 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Dnipro-1 stand at 8W 0D 2L — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Dnipro-1 away from home: 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Dnipro-1 — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Polessya have won 0, Dnipro-1 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 6 Aug 2023, ended Polessya 1–2 Dnipro-1 — a Dnipro-1 win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Polessya in-play tendencies (last 16 games, 7 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 75%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Dnipro-1 in-play tendencies (last 16 games, 7 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Polessya 44% versus Dnipro-1 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Polessya 44% | Dnipro-1 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Polessya 1.13 xG and Dnipro-1 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Polessya attack 1.058 / defence 1.029 | Dnipro-1 attack 1.217 / defence 0.940. League average goals — home 1.137 / away 1.219. Dnipro-1 have an above-average attack rating of 1.217, which lifts their away xG to 1.53. Data: built from Polessya's last 16 games and Dnipro-1's last 46.
Result probabilities: Polessya 26% | Draw 29% | Dnipro-1 45%. Fair-value odds: Polessya 3.78 | Draw 3.48 | Dnipro-1 2.23. Dnipro-1 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dnipro-1 at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dnipro-1 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Polessya 71% (last 7 home games) | Dnipro-1 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Polessya vs Dnipro-1 | Competition: Premier League, matchday 17 | Venue: Tsentralnyi Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 8 December 2023 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Polessya 26% | Draw 29% | Dnipro-1 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Polessya 1.13 / Dnipro-1 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Polessya attack 1.058 / def 1.029 | Dnipro-1 attack 1.217 / def 0.940 | league avg home 1.137 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Dnipro-1 (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Polessya xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Dnipro-1 xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Polessya vs Dnipro-1 FAQs
What time does Polessya vs Dnipro-1 kick off?
Polessya vs Dnipro-1 kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Friday 8 December 2023 at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What was the final score in Polessya vs Dnipro-1?
Polessya 1 - 1 Dnipro-1.
Where is Polessya vs Dnipro-1 being played?
The match is being played at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What competition is Polessya vs Dnipro-1 part of?
Polessya vs Dnipro-1 is a Premier League fixture (matchday 17) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Polessya vs Dnipro-1?
Our statistical model gives Polessya a 26% chance of winning, Dnipro-1 a 45% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Dnipro-1 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Polessya vs Dnipro-1?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Polessya and Dnipro-1 will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Polessya vs Dnipro-1 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Polessya's attack rating (1.06) and Dnipro-1's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dnipro-1's attack versus Polessya's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Polessya's last 16 games and Dnipro-1's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dnipro-1 Win
26%
3.78
29%
3.48
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Polessya xG
Total xG
2.66
1.53
Dnipro-1 xG
3.78
26%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
22%
4.60
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
6%
17.38
14%
6.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 10.7 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.1 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.8 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Polessya vs Dnipro-1 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Polessya vs Dnipro-1?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Polessya and Dnipro-1 expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Polessya and 1.53 for Dnipro-1, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Polessya vs Dnipro-1?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 16 outings, Polessya have picked up 1.94 PPG on a 9W 4D 3L record — W-D-W-D-D across the most recent five.
Dnipro-1's form line: 10W 3D 3L from 16 games, 2.06 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Polessya on 1.94 PPG, Dnipro-1 on 2.06. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Polessya have posted 2.00 PPG from their last 7 home games (4W 2D 1L).
On the road, Dnipro-1 have gone 5W 1D 1L from their last 7 away games — 2.29 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Polessya are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 0.69 conceded per game recently; Dnipro-1 are on 1.56 scored and 0.94 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Polessya have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; Dnipro-1 in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Polessya
Blended
Dnipro-1
Blended
Polessya (Home) vs Dnipro-1 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Polessya
Blended
Dnipro-1
Blended
❓ Polessya vs Dnipro-1 Form FAQs
What form are Polessya and Dnipro-1 in coming into this match?
Polessya have gone 9W 4D 3L in their last 16 games (1.94 PPG), while Dnipro-1 have gone 10W 3D 3L in their last 16 (2.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Polessya at home or Dnipro-1 away?
Dnipro-1's away record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Polessya at home: 2.00 PPG; Dnipro-1 away: 2.29 PPG.
Have Polessya or Dnipro-1 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Polessya have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Dnipro-1 in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from August 2023. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 8 December 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Polessya
1
Draws
1
Dnipro-1
Recent Meetings
❓ Polessya vs Dnipro-1 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Polessya and Dnipro-1?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Polessya have won 0, Dnipro-1 have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Polessya and Dnipro-1 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 December 2023: Polessya 1-1 Dnipro-1.
Who has won more matches between Polessya and Dnipro-1?
Dnipro-1 have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Polessya see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Dnipro-1 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Polessya 71%, Dnipro-1 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Polessya) and 43% (Dnipro-1).
On the defensive side: Dnipro-1 in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Polessya home games / Dnipro-1 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Polessya vs Dnipro-1 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Polessya and Dnipro-1 matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Polessya's games and 43% of Dnipro-1's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Polessya and Dnipro-1 matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Polessya's recent games and 43% of Dnipro-1's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Polessya and Dnipro-1 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 57% of Polessya's recent matches and 86% of Dnipro-1's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Polessya and Dnipro-1 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tsentralnyi Stadion, Regular Season - 17, as Polessya and Dnipro-1 drew 1-1 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Polessya 1.13 xG and Dnipro-1 1.53 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Polessya attack 1.06 / defence 1.03 against Dnipro-1 attack 1.22 / defence 0.94, drawn from 16/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Polessya 26% | Draw 29% | Dnipro-1 45%, with Dnipro-1 to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Polessya 44%, Dnipro-1 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Polessya's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Dnipro-1's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Polessya 1.94 PPG, Dnipro-1 2.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.