LNZ Cherkasy 1-2 Minai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates LNZ Cherkasy at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this LNZ Cherkasy vs Minai encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 17 as LNZ Cherkasy welcome Minai to Cherkasy Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 23 March 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, LNZ Cherkasy have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W L W D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Cherkasy Arena, LNZ Cherkasy have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Cherkasy Arena this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Minai stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Minai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Minai have gone 0W 3D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
LNZ Cherkasy carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, LNZ Cherkasy have won 1, Minai 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Aug 2023, ended 3–0 with LNZ Cherkasy winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
LNZ Cherkasy trading profile (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Minai trading profile (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 59% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — LNZ Cherkasy 46% versus Minai 36%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (LNZ Cherkasy 46% | Minai 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects LNZ Cherkasy 1.07 xG and Minai 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.830 / defence 1.218 | Minai attack 0.687 / defence 1.188. League average goals — home 1.082 / away 1.128. Data: 20 LNZ Cherkasy games / 49 Minai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 38% | Draw 31% | Minai 31%. Fair-value odds: LNZ Cherkasy 2.63 | Draw 3.23 | Minai 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is LNZ Cherkasy at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on LNZ Cherkasy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.01 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: LNZ Cherkasy 50% | Minai 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: LNZ Cherkasy vs Minai | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Cherkasy Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Mar 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 38% | Draw 31% | Minai 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG LNZ Cherkasy 1.07 / Minai 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.830 / def 1.218 | Minai attack 0.687 / def 1.188 | league avg home 1.082 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: LNZ Cherkasy (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Minai xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does LNZ Cherkasy vs Minai kick off?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Minai kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 23 March 2024 at Cherkasy Arena.
What was the final score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Minai?
LNZ Cherkasy 1 - 2 Minai.
Where is LNZ Cherkasy vs Minai being played?
The match is being played at Cherkasy Arena.
What competition is LNZ Cherkasy vs Minai part of?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Minai is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win LNZ Cherkasy vs Minai?
Our statistical model gives LNZ Cherkasy a 38% chance of winning, Minai a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making LNZ Cherkasy the favourite.
Will both teams score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Minai?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both LNZ Cherkasy and Minai will score (BTTS).
Will LNZ Cherkasy vs Minai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Minai?
Record (1 meetings): LNZ Cherkasy 1W | Draws 0 | Minai 0W.
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Minai in?
LNZ Cherkasy (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-D. Minai (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
LNZ Cherkasy's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Minai's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.07. The same calculation in reverse, Minai's attack versus LNZ Cherkasy's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.2%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
LNZ Cherkasy Win
38%
2.64
31%
3.26
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Total xG
2.01
0.94
Minai xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
34%
2.91
Win to Nil
15%
6.78
11%
9.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 12.6 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for LNZ Cherkasy vs Minai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are LNZ Cherkasy and Minai expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for LNZ Cherkasy and 0.94 for Minai, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for LNZ Cherkasy vs Minai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
LNZ Cherkasy's recent record stands at 7W 8D 7L from 22 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for LNZ Cherkasy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Minai, meanwhile, have gone 2W 8D 12L across 22 games — 0.64 PPG, with L-D-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Minai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours LNZ Cherkasy by 0.68 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Minai heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, LNZ Cherkasy have managed 3W 3D 5L from 11 games — 1.09 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Minai's away record stands at 1W 3D 7L across 11 trips, a 0.55 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, LNZ Cherkasy come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
LNZ Cherkasy are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Minai are on 0.50 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
Minai
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Minai in coming into this match?
LNZ Cherkasy have gone 7W 8D 7L in their last 22 games (1.32 PPG), while Minai have gone 2W 8D 12L in their last 22 (0.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — LNZ Cherkasy at home or Minai away?
LNZ Cherkasy's home record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — LNZ Cherkasy at home: 1.09 PPG; Minai away: 0.55 PPG.
Have LNZ Cherkasy or Minai been keeping clean sheets recently?
LNZ Cherkasy have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Minai in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between LNZ Cherkasy and Minai runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
LNZ Cherkasy
0
Draws
1
Minai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Minai?
From 2 meetings on record, LNZ Cherkasy have won 1, Minai have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did LNZ Cherkasy and Minai last play each other?
They last met on 23 March 2024, when LNZ Cherkasy 1-2 Minai.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
LNZ Cherkasy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Minai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — LNZ Cherkasy 54%, Minai 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (LNZ Cherkasy) and 36% (Minai).
On the defensive side: LNZ Cherkasy have failed to score in 36% of games; Minai in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = LNZ Cherkasy home games / Minai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when LNZ Cherkasy play Minai?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent matches and 46% of Minai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is LNZ Cherkasy vs Minai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent games and 36% of Minai's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do LNZ Cherkasy and Minai tend to score early?
LNZ Cherkasy have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Minai in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Minai defy the odds to beat LNZ Cherkasy 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Minai beat LNZ Cherkasy 1-2 at Cherkasy Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting LNZ Cherkasy 1.07 xG and Minai 0.94 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Minai outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.83 / defence 1.22 against Minai attack 0.69 / defence 1.19, drawn from 20/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it LNZ Cherkasy 38% | Draw 31% | Minai 31%, with LNZ Cherkasy to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Minai win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (LNZ Cherkasy 46%, Minai 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Minai's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, LNZ Cherkasy arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.64. Form was overturned, with Minai winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Minai (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.55 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.