Dnipro-1 1-1 Minai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Dnipro-1 (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Dnipro-1 face Minai.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dnipro-1 host Minai at Dnipro Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 25 February 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Dnipro-1 have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Dnipro-1, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dnipro-1's home record at Dnipro Arena: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Premier League appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Dnipro Arena.
Minai — All Games: 0W 4D 6L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Minai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Minai's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Dnipro-1 carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 0.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Dnipro-1: 3 wins from 4 previous clashes against 0 for Minai, with 1 draws across those contests.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Dnipro-1 and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Dnipro-1 in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Minai in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dnipro-1 53% versus Minai 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dnipro-1 58% | Minai 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dnipro-1 1.57 xG and Minai 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dnipro-1 attack 1.219 / defence 0.959 | Minai attack 0.799 / defence 1.143. League average goals — home 1.127 / away 1.234. Data: 47 Dnipro-1 games / 45 Minai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dnipro-1 50% | Draw 29% | Minai 21%. Fair-value odds: Dnipro-1 2.00 | Draw 3.45 | Minai 4.76. Dnipro-1 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Dnipro-1 as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dnipro-1 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Dnipro-1 50% | Minai 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dnipro-1 vs Minai | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Dnipro Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Feb 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dnipro-1 50% | Draw 29% | Minai 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Dnipro-1 1.57 / Minai 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Dnipro-1 attack 1.219 / def 0.959 | Minai attack 0.799 / def 1.143 | league avg home 1.127 / away 1.234 • Poisson stance: Dnipro-1 (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Dnipro-1 xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Minai xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dnipro-1 vs Minai kick off?
Dnipro-1 vs Minai kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 25 February 2024 at Dnipro Arena.
What was the final score in Dnipro-1 vs Minai?
Dnipro-1 1 - 1 Minai.
Where is Dnipro-1 vs Minai being played?
The match is being played at Dnipro Arena.
What competition is Dnipro-1 vs Minai part of?
Dnipro-1 vs Minai is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Dnipro-1 vs Minai?
Our statistical model gives Dnipro-1 a 50% chance of winning, Minai a 21% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Dnipro-1 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dnipro-1 vs Minai?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Dnipro-1 and Minai will score (BTTS).
Will Dnipro-1 vs Minai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dnipro-1 and Minai?
Record (4 meetings): Dnipro-1 3W | Draws 1 | Minai 0W.
What form are Dnipro-1 and Minai in?
Dnipro-1 (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Minai (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Dnipro-1's attack rating (1.22) and Minai's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Minai's attack versus Dnipro-1's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 2-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dnipro-1 Win
50%
2.00
29%
3.43
21%
4.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Dnipro-1 xG
Total xG
2.52
0.95
Minai xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
4.81
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
21%
4.81
Win to Nil
19%
5.15
4%
23.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.0 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.4 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dnipro-1 vs Minai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Dnipro-1 and Minai expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Dnipro-1 and 0.95 for Minai, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Dnipro-1 vs Minai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Dnipro-1's recent record stands at 29W 8D 8L from 45 games, a 2.11 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Dnipro-1 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Minai, meanwhile, have gone 8W 15D 22L across 45 games — 0.87 PPG, with L-D-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Minai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dnipro-1 by 1.24 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Minai heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Dnipro-1 have managed 14W 4D 4L from 22 games — 2.09 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Minai's away record stands at 5W 6D 11L across 22 trips, a 0.95 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dnipro-1 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Dnipro-1 are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Minai are on 0.62 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Defensively: Dnipro-1 have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dnipro-1
Blended
Minai
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dnipro-1 and Minai in coming into this match?
Dnipro-1 have gone 29W 8D 8L in their last 45 games (2.11 PPG), while Minai have gone 8W 15D 22L in their last 45 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dnipro-1 at home or Minai away?
Dnipro-1's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dnipro-1 at home: 2.09 PPG; Minai away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Dnipro-1 or Minai been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dnipro-1 have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Minai in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Nov 2021, when Dnipro-1 won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dnipro-1's record when hosting Minai specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Dnipro-1
2
Draws
0
Minai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dnipro-1 and Minai?
From 5 meetings on record, Dnipro-1 have won 3, Minai have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dnipro-1 and Minai last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2024, when Dnipro-1 1-1 Minai.
Who has won more matches between Dnipro-1 and Minai?
Dnipro-1 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dnipro-1 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Minai see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dnipro-1 59%, Minai 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Dnipro-1) and 32% (Minai).
On the defensive side: Dnipro-1 keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Minai in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dnipro-1 home games / Minai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dnipro-1 play Minai?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Dnipro-1's recent matches and 46% of Minai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dnipro-1 vs Minai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Dnipro-1's recent games and 32% of Minai's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dnipro-1 and Minai tend to score early?
Dnipro-1 have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Minai in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dnipro-1 and Minai share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Dnipro Arena, Regular Season - 18, as Dnipro-1 and Minai drew 1-1 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dnipro-1 1.57 xG and Minai 0.95 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dnipro-1 attack 1.22 / defence 0.96 against Minai attack 0.80 / defence 1.14, drawn from 47/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dnipro-1 50% | Draw 29% | Minai 21%, with Dnipro-1 to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dnipro-1 58%, Minai 27%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dnipro-1's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Minai's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Dnipro-1 arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 0.87. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Dnipro-1 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.95 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.