Minai 1-2 Lviv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Minai at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Minai face Lviv.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Minai and Lviv meet at Stadion Avanhard in Premier League (matchday 9). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 26 September 2021 at 13:00 UK time.
Current Form
Minai's record over their last 7 games: 1W 3D 3L (0.86 PPG). Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 0.71 goals per game and conceding 1.29 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings (14%).
In front of their own supporters, Minai have posted 1W 2D 0L from their last 3 home games — 1.67 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.67 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.86 — Minai are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Lviv have collected 0.38 PPG across their last 8 games: 0W 3D 5L. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.62 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings (12%).
Lviv's away record over their last 3 away games: 0W 0D 3L (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.33 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.86 for Minai, 0.38 for Lviv — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Minai half-time and goal-timing data (last 7 games, 3 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games; they fail to score in 43% of games.
Lviv half-time and goal-timing data (last 7 games, 3 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 43% of their matches; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; they fail to score in 57% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Minai 43% versus Lviv 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Minai 14% | Lviv 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Minai 1.44 xG and Lviv 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Minai attack 0.976 / defence 1.081 | Lviv attack 0.637 / defence 1.344. League average goals — home 1.097 / away 1.170. Lviv's defence rating of 1.344 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Minai's projected output up. Lviv's attack rating of 0.637 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.81. Data: built from Minai's last 7 games and Lviv's last 8.
Result probabilities: Minai 52% | Draw 27% | Lviv 21%. Fair-value odds: Minai 1.92 | Draw 3.71 | Lviv 4.76. Minai hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Minai are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Minai if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.24 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 61% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Minai 67% (last 3 home games) | Lviv 33% (last 3 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Minai vs Lviv | Competition: Premier League, matchday 9 | Venue: Stadion Avanhard • Kick-off: Sunday 26 September 2021 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Minai 52% | Draw 27% | Lviv 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Minai 1.44 / Lviv 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Minai attack 0.976 / def 1.081 | Lviv attack 0.637 / def 1.344 | league avg home 1.097 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Minai (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Minai xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Lviv xG
42%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Minai vs Lviv FAQs
What time does Minai vs Lviv kick off?
Minai vs Lviv kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Sunday 26 September 2021 at Stadion Avanhard.
What was the final score in Minai vs Lviv?
Minai 1 - 2 Lviv.
Where is Minai vs Lviv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Avanhard.
What competition is Minai vs Lviv part of?
Minai vs Lviv is a Premier League fixture (matchday 9) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Minai vs Lviv?
Our statistical model gives Minai a 52% chance of winning, Lviv a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Minai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Minai vs Lviv?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Minai and Lviv will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Minai vs Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Minai's attack rating (0.98) and Lviv's defence rating (1.34), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lviv's attack (0.64x) against Minai's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from Minai's last 7 games and Lviv's last 8 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.7%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Minai Win
52%
1.92
27%
3.71
21%
4.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Minai xG
Total xG
2.24
0.81
Lviv xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
4.76
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
24%
4.21
Win to Nil
23%
4.30
5%
20.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 8.5 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 12.3 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 8.8 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Minai vs Lviv Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Minai vs Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Minai and Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Minai and 0.81 for Lviv, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Minai vs Lviv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Minai's recent record stands at 1W 3D 3L from 7 games, a 0.86 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-L in the last five.
Lviv, meanwhile, have gone 0W 2D 5L across 7 games — 0.29 PPG, with D-L-L-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Minai by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lviv heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Minai have managed 1W 2D 0L from their last 3 home games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.86 PPG overall — Minai are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Lviv's away record stands at 0W 0D 3L across their last 3 away games, a 0.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Minai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Minai are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Lviv are on 0.43 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 7 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Minai
Early Season
Lviv
Early Season
Minai (Home) vs Lviv (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Minai
Early Season
Lviv
Early Season
❓ Minai vs Lviv Form FAQs
What form are Minai and Lviv in coming into this match?
Minai have gone 1W 3D 3L in their last 7 games (0.86 PPG), while Lviv have gone 0W 2D 5L in their last 7 (0.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Minai at home or Lviv away?
Minai's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Minai at home: 1.67 PPG; Lviv away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 3 H2H matches between Minai and Lviv, the earliest from September 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 6 March 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Lviv have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Minai have gone 0W 0D 2L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Lviv — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Minai
0
Draws
3
Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Minai vs Lviv H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Minai and Lviv?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Minai have won 0, Lviv have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Minai and Lviv last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 March 2023: Lviv 1-0 Minai.
Who has won more matches between Minai and Lviv?
Lviv have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Minai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 100% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Lviv see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Minai 67%, Lviv 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Minai and 33% for Lviv.
On the defensive side: Minai keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Lviv in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Minai home games / Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Minai vs Lviv Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Minai and Lviv matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Minai's recent matches and 33% of Lviv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Minai and Lviv matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Minai's recent games and 33% of Lviv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Minai and Lviv matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Minai's recent matches and 33% of Lviv's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lviv defy the odds to beat Minai 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lviv beat Minai 1-2 at Stadion Avanhard, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Minai 1.44 xG and Lviv 0.81 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Lviv outscored their 0.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Minai attack 0.98 / defence 1.08 against Lviv attack 0.64 / defence 1.34, drawn from 7/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Minai 52% | Draw 27% | Lviv 21%, with Minai to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Lviv win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Minai 14%, Lviv 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Minai's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Lviv's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Minai arrived the stronger side — 0.86 PPG against 0.29. Form was overturned, with Lviv winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Minai (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lviv (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.