Shakhtar Donetsk 4-1 Veres Rivne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shakhtar Donetsk at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shakhtar Donetsk vs Veres Rivne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Shakhtar Donetsk host Veres Rivne at NSK Olimpijs'kyj in Premier League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 25 September 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shakhtar Donetsk stand at 6W 1D 1L from 8 Premier League matches — 2.38 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.38 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 8 games (62%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Shakhtar Donetsk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shakhtar Donetsk's form when playing at home: 3W 0D 1L across 4 games at NSK Olimpijs'kyj this term (2.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at NSK Olimpijs'kyj.
Across all Premier League games this season, Veres Rivne have recorded 3W 2D 3L from 8 outings — 1.38 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets from 8 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Veres Rivne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Veres Rivne's away record: 1W 0D 3L from 4 road trips in Premier League this season (0.75 PPG). Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.75 is notably below their overall 1.38 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Shakhtar Donetsk have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.38 vs 1.38) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Profile
Shakhtar Donetsk in-play tendencies (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time.
Veres Rivne in-play tendencies (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 38% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Shakhtar Donetsk 38% | Veres Rivne 25%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shakhtar Donetsk 62% | Veres Rivne 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shakhtar Donetsk 1.47 xG and Veres Rivne 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.140 / defence 1.025 | Veres Rivne attack 0.978 / defence 1.191. League average goals — home 1.082 / away 1.155. Data: 8 Shakhtar Donetsk games / 8 Veres Rivne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 44% | Draw 26% | Veres Rivne 30%. Fair-value odds: Shakhtar Donetsk 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Veres Rivne 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shakhtar Donetsk are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shakhtar Donetsk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Shakhtar Donetsk 50% | Veres Rivne 25% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shakhtar Donetsk vs Veres Rivne | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: NSK Olimpijs'kyj • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Sep 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 44% | Draw 26% | Veres Rivne 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Shakhtar Donetsk 1.47 / Veres Rivne 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.140 / def 1.025 | Veres Rivne attack 0.978 / def 1.191 | league avg home 1.082 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: Shakhtar Donetsk (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Veres Rivne xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shakhtar Donetsk vs Veres Rivne kick off?
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Veres Rivne kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 25 September 2021 at NSK Olimpijs'kyj.
What was the final score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs Veres Rivne?
Shakhtar Donetsk 4 - 1 Veres Rivne.
Where is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Veres Rivne being played?
The match is being played at NSK Olimpijs'kyj.
What competition is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Veres Rivne part of?
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Veres Rivne is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Shakhtar Donetsk vs Veres Rivne?
Our statistical model gives Shakhtar Donetsk a 44% chance of winning, Veres Rivne a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Shakhtar Donetsk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs Veres Rivne?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Shakhtar Donetsk and Veres Rivne will score (BTTS).
Will Shakhtar Donetsk vs Veres Rivne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shakhtar Donetsk and Veres Rivne?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shakhtar Donetsk and Veres Rivne in?
Shakhtar Donetsk (all comps): 6W-1D-1L in 8 | 2.38 PPG | GF 2.38 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Veres Rivne (all comps): 3W-2D-3L in 8 | 1.38 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Shakhtar Donetsk's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Veres Rivne's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. The same calculation in reverse, Veres Rivne's attack versus Shakhtar Donetsk's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shakhtar Donetsk Win
44%
2.26
26%
3.87
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
Total xG
2.63
1.16
Veres Rivne xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
23%
4.35
Win to Nil
14%
7.17
7%
14.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 8.4 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.3 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.0 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Veres Rivne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Shakhtar Donetsk and Veres Rivne expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Shakhtar Donetsk and 1.16 for Veres Rivne, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Veres Rivne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Shakhtar Donetsk come into this having played 8 games, going 6W 1D 1L for 2.38 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W. The sample for Shakhtar Donetsk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Veres Rivne sit at 1.38 PPG from 8 outings (3W 2D 3L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Veres Rivne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shakhtar Donetsk carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Veres Rivne — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Shakhtar Donetsk's home form reads 3W 0D 1L across 4 games on their own ground, a 2.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Veres Rivne have taken 0.75 points per game from 4 outings (1W 0D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.38 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Veres Rivne's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shakhtar Donetsk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Shakhtar Donetsk are averaging 2.38 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Veres Rivne are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Shakhtar Donetsk's scoring rate against Veres Rivne's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Veres Rivne in 25%.
Defensively: Shakhtar Donetsk have kept a clean sheet in 62% of their games; Veres Rivne in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shakhtar Donetsk
Blended
Veres Rivne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shakhtar Donetsk and Veres Rivne in coming into this match?
Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 6W 1D 1L in their last 8 games (2.38 PPG), while Veres Rivne have gone 3W 2D 3L in their last 8 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shakhtar Donetsk at home or Veres Rivne away?
Shakhtar Donetsk's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shakhtar Donetsk at home: 2.25 PPG; Veres Rivne away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Shakhtar Donetsk or Veres Rivne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shakhtar Donetsk have kept a clean sheet in 62% of their recent games, Veres Rivne in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Shakhtar Donetsk go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Sep 2021, when Shakhtar Donetsk won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shakhtar Donetsk's record when hosting Veres Rivne specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
7
Shakhtar Donetsk
2
Draws
0
Veres Rivne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shakhtar Donetsk and Veres Rivne?
From 9 meetings on record, Shakhtar Donetsk have won 7, Veres Rivne have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shakhtar Donetsk and Veres Rivne last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Shakhtar Donetsk 1-0 Veres Rivne.
Who has won more matches between Shakhtar Donetsk and Veres Rivne?
Shakhtar Donetsk have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shakhtar Donetsk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Veres Rivne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shakhtar Donetsk 50%, Veres Rivne 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Shakhtar Donetsk and 75% for Veres Rivne. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shakhtar Donetsk keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Veres Rivne in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shakhtar Donetsk home games / Veres Rivne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shakhtar Donetsk play Veres Rivne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Shakhtar Donetsk's recent matches and 25% of Veres Rivne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Veres Rivne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Shakhtar Donetsk's matches and 75% of Veres Rivne's.
Do Shakhtar Donetsk and Veres Rivne tend to score early?
Shakhtar Donetsk have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Veres Rivne in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shakhtar Donetsk run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Veres Rivne.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shakhtar Donetsk beat Veres Rivne 4-1 at NSK Olimpijs'kyj, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shakhtar Donetsk 1.47 xG and Veres Rivne 1.16 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Shakhtar Donetsk beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.14 / defence 1.02 against Veres Rivne attack 0.98 / defence 1.19, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shakhtar Donetsk 44% | Draw 26% | Veres Rivne 30%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shakhtar Donetsk 62%, Veres Rivne 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 31%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time, and conceded here.
Veres Rivne's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shakhtar Donetsk arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 1.38. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Shakhtar Donetsk (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm. Veres Rivne (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.