Lviv 0-0 FC Kharkiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lviv at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lviv vs FC Kharkiv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Arena L'viv plays host to Lviv versus FC Kharkiv in Premier League, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Sunday 19 September 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lviv have collected 0.29 PPG across 7 Premier League outings this season: 0W 2D 5L. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.57 goals per game and conceding 1.86 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Lviv have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Arena L'viv, Lviv have gone 0W 2D 2L this season (4 games, 0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Kharkiv's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 0D 5L from 7 games (0.86 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.86 per game is modest, conceding 1.71 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. FC Kharkiv have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Kharkiv's away record: 0W 0D 3L from 3 road trips in Premier League this season (0.00 PPG). Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 0.86 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
FC Kharkiv arrive in superior form — a 0.57 PPG advantage (0.86 vs 0.29) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading & In-Play
Lviv — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; they fail to score in 43% of games.
FC Kharkiv — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; they fail to score in 57% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lviv 57% versus FC Kharkiv 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lviv 43% | FC Kharkiv 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lviv 1.09 xG and FC Kharkiv 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lviv attack 0.811 / defence 1.315 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.548 / defence 1.237. League average goals — home 1.091 / away 1.200. FC Kharkiv bring a strong defensive rating of 1.237 — this is suppressing Lviv's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Lviv games / 7 FC Kharkiv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lviv 41% | Draw 31% | FC Kharkiv 28%. Fair-value odds: Lviv 2.44 | Draw 3.23 | FC Kharkiv 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lviv are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC Kharkiv (0.86 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lviv if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.96 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lviv 75% | FC Kharkiv 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lviv vs FC Kharkiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Arena L'viv • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Sep 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lviv 41% | Draw 31% | FC Kharkiv 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Lviv 1.09 / FC Kharkiv 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Lviv attack 0.811 / def 1.315 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.548 / def 1.237 | league avg home 1.091 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Lviv (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Lviv xG
Expected Goals
0.86
FC Kharkiv xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lviv vs FC Kharkiv kick off?
Lviv vs FC Kharkiv kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 19 September 2021 at Arena L'viv.
What was the final score in Lviv vs FC Kharkiv?
Lviv 0 - 0 FC Kharkiv.
Where is Lviv vs FC Kharkiv being played?
The match is being played at Arena L'viv.
What competition is Lviv vs FC Kharkiv part of?
Lviv vs FC Kharkiv is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Lviv vs FC Kharkiv?
Our statistical model gives Lviv a 41% chance of winning, FC Kharkiv a 28% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Lviv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lviv vs FC Kharkiv?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Lviv and FC Kharkiv will score (BTTS).
Will Lviv vs FC Kharkiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lviv and FC Kharkiv?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lviv and FC Kharkiv in?
Lviv (all comps): 0W-2D-5L in 7 | 0.29 PPG | GF 0.57 / GA 1.86 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. FC Kharkiv (all comps): 2W-0D-5L in 7 | 0.86 PPG | GF 0.86 / GA 1.71 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Lviv's attack at 0.81x the league average against FC Kharkiv's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Kharkiv's attack (0.55x) against Lviv's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lviv Win
41%
2.46
31%
3.23
28%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Lviv xG
Total xG
1.96
0.86
FC Kharkiv xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
3.51
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.60
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
17%
5.85
10%
10.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1 | 12.2 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.4 | 13.3 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lviv vs FC Kharkiv?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Lviv and FC Kharkiv expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Lviv and 0.86 for FC Kharkiv, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Lviv vs FC Kharkiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lviv's recent record stands at 0W 2D 5L from 7 games, a 0.29 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Lviv, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Kharkiv, meanwhile, have gone 2W 0D 5L across 7 games — 0.86 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC Kharkiv by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lviv heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Lviv have managed 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — 0.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Kharkiv's away record stands at 0W 0D 3L across 3 trips, a 0.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.86 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Kharkiv's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lviv are averaging 0.57 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; FC Kharkiv are on 0.86 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 7 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lviv
Early Season
FC Kharkiv
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lviv and FC Kharkiv in coming into this match?
Lviv have gone 0W 2D 5L in their last 7 games (0.29 PPG), while FC Kharkiv have gone 2W 0D 5L in their last 7 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lviv at home or FC Kharkiv away?
Lviv's home record (0.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lviv at home: 0.33 PPG; FC Kharkiv away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lviv have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against FC Kharkiv — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Lviv
2
Draws
1
FC Kharkiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lviv and FC Kharkiv?
From 3 meetings on record, Lviv have won 0, FC Kharkiv have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lviv and FC Kharkiv last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2023, when Lviv 0-2 FC Kharkiv.
Who has won more matches between Lviv and FC Kharkiv?
FC Kharkiv have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC Kharkiv see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 67% (Lviv) and 0% (FC Kharkiv) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 67% for Lviv and 0% for FC Kharkiv.
On the defensive side: Lviv have failed to score in 33% of games; FC Kharkiv in 100%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lviv home games / FC Kharkiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lviv play FC Kharkiv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Lviv's recent matches and 0% of FC Kharkiv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lviv vs FC Kharkiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Lviv's recent games and 0% of FC Kharkiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lviv and FC Kharkiv tend to score early?
Lviv have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, FC Kharkiv in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Lviv's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lviv and FC Kharkiv finished level at 0-0 at Arena L'viv, Regular Season - 8, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lviv 1.09 xG and FC Kharkiv 0.86 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lviv fell 1.1 short of their projected output. FC Kharkiv landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lviv attack 0.81 / defence 1.31 against FC Kharkiv attack 0.55 / defence 1.24, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lviv 41% | Draw 31% | FC Kharkiv 28%, with Lviv to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lviv 43%, FC Kharkiv 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lviv's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 57% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Kharkiv arrived the stronger side — 0.86 PPG against 0.29. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lviv (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. FC Kharkiv (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.