LNZ Cherkasy 0-3 Kryvbas KR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kryvbas KR at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as LNZ Cherkasy face Kryvbas KR.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kryvbas KR make the trip to Stadion Kolos to face LNZ Cherkasy in Premier League (matchday 18). The match kicks off on Friday 23 February 2024 at 13:30 UK time.
Form
LNZ Cherkasy (all games): 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, LNZ Cherkasy have posted 3W 2D 4L from their last 9 home games — 1.22 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Kryvbas KR have collected 2.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: D L W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Kryvbas KR have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 2.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Kryvbas KR edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 13 Aug 2023, ended LNZ Cherkasy 0–2 Kryvbas KR — a Kryvbas KR win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
LNZ Cherkasy half-time and goal-timing data (last 18 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Kryvbas KR half-time and goal-timing data (last 18 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — LNZ Cherkasy 44% versus Kryvbas KR 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (LNZ Cherkasy 50% | Kryvbas KR 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects LNZ Cherkasy 0.94 xG and Kryvbas KR 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.926 / defence 1.130 | Kryvbas KR attack 1.129 / defence 0.880. League average goals — home 1.148 / away 1.203. Data: built from LNZ Cherkasy's last 16 games and Kryvbas KR's last 47.
Result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 21% | Draw 29% | Kryvbas KR 49%. Fair-value odds: LNZ Cherkasy 4.74 | Draw 3.39 | Kryvbas KR 2.02. Kryvbas KR hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Kryvbas KR as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kryvbas KR if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: LNZ Cherkasy 56% (last 9 home games) | Kryvbas KR 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: LNZ Cherkasy vs Kryvbas KR | Competition: Premier League, matchday 18 | Venue: Stadion Kolos • Kick-off: Friday 23 February 2024 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 21% | Draw 29% | Kryvbas KR 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG LNZ Cherkasy 0.94 / Kryvbas KR 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.926 / def 1.130 | Kryvbas KR attack 1.129 / def 0.880 | league avg home 1.148 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Kryvbas KR (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Kryvbas KR xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ LNZ Cherkasy vs Kryvbas KR FAQs
What time does LNZ Cherkasy vs Kryvbas KR kick off?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Kryvbas KR kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Friday 23 February 2024 at Stadion Kolos.
What was the final score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Kryvbas KR?
LNZ Cherkasy 0 - 3 Kryvbas KR.
Where is LNZ Cherkasy vs Kryvbas KR being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Kolos.
What competition is LNZ Cherkasy vs Kryvbas KR part of?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Kryvbas KR is a Premier League fixture (matchday 18) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win LNZ Cherkasy vs Kryvbas KR?
Our statistical model gives LNZ Cherkasy a 21% chance of winning, Kryvbas KR a 49% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Kryvbas KR the favourite.
Will both teams score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Kryvbas KR?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both LNZ Cherkasy and Kryvbas KR will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will LNZ Cherkasy vs Kryvbas KR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates LNZ Cherkasy's attack at 0.93x the league average against Kryvbas KR's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 0.94 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Kryvbas KR's attack (1.13x) against LNZ Cherkasy's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.53.
These ratings are built from LNZ Cherkasy's last 16 games and Kryvbas KR's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.4%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kryvbas KR Win
21%
4.74
29%
3.39
49%
2.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
0 – 2
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Total xG
2.47
1.53
Kryvbas KR xG
4.74
21%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
2.02
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
22%
4.64
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
5%
21.99
19%
5.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 13.0 | 10.0 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.1 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 5.7 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ LNZ Cherkasy vs Kryvbas KR Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for LNZ Cherkasy vs Kryvbas KR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are LNZ Cherkasy and Kryvbas KR expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for LNZ Cherkasy and 1.53 for Kryvbas KR, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for LNZ Cherkasy vs Kryvbas KR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
LNZ Cherkasy's recent record stands at 6W 6D 6L from 18 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-W in the last five.
Kryvbas KR, meanwhile, have gone 10W 4D 4L across 18 games — 1.89 PPG, with D-L-W-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Kryvbas KR by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over LNZ Cherkasy heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, LNZ Cherkasy have managed 3W 2D 4L from their last 9 home games — 1.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kryvbas KR's away record stands at 5W 2D 2L across their last 9 away games, a 1.89 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kryvbas KR come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
LNZ Cherkasy are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Kryvbas KR are on 1.72 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 18 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
Kryvbas KR
Blended
LNZ Cherkasy (Home) vs Kryvbas KR (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
Kryvbas KR
Blended
❓ LNZ Cherkasy vs Kryvbas KR Form FAQs
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Kryvbas KR in coming into this match?
LNZ Cherkasy have gone 6W 6D 6L in their last 18 games (1.33 PPG), while Kryvbas KR have gone 10W 4D 4L in their last 18 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — LNZ Cherkasy at home or Kryvbas KR away?
Kryvbas KR's away record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — LNZ Cherkasy at home: 1.22 PPG; Kryvbas KR away: 1.89 PPG.
Have LNZ Cherkasy or Kryvbas KR been keeping clean sheets recently?
LNZ Cherkasy have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Kryvbas KR in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 7 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 18 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: LNZ Cherkasy have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kryvbas KR won LNZ Cherkasy 0-3 Kryvbas KR on 23 Feb 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, LNZ Cherkasy have gone 0W 2D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Kryvbas KR — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
LNZ Cherkasy
2
Draws
3
Kryvbas KR
Recent Meetings
❓ LNZ Cherkasy vs Kryvbas KR H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Kryvbas KR?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, LNZ Cherkasy have won 2, Kryvbas KR have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did LNZ Cherkasy and Kryvbas KR last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 October 2026: Kryvbas KR 0-3 LNZ Cherkasy.
Who has won more matches between LNZ Cherkasy and Kryvbas KR?
Kryvbas KR have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
LNZ Cherkasy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Kryvbas KR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — LNZ Cherkasy 56%, Kryvbas KR 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (LNZ Cherkasy) and 44% (Kryvbas KR).
On the defensive side: Kryvbas KR in 33%; LNZ Cherkasy have failed to score in 33% of games; Kryvbas KR in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = LNZ Cherkasy home games / Kryvbas KR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ LNZ Cherkasy vs Kryvbas KR Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in LNZ Cherkasy and Kryvbas KR matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent matches and 44% of Kryvbas KR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are LNZ Cherkasy and Kryvbas KR matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent games and 44% of Kryvbas KR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do LNZ Cherkasy and Kryvbas KR matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent matches and 67% of Kryvbas KR's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Kryvbas KR run riot with a 0-3 hammering of LNZ Cherkasy.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kryvbas KR beat LNZ Cherkasy 0-3 at Stadion Kolos, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting LNZ Cherkasy 0.94 xG and Kryvbas KR 1.53 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. LNZ Cherkasy fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Kryvbas KR outscored their 1.53 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.93 / defence 1.13 against Kryvbas KR attack 1.13 / defence 0.88, drawn from 16/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it LNZ Cherkasy 21% | Draw 29% | Kryvbas KR 49%, with Kryvbas KR to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (LNZ Cherkasy 50%, Kryvbas KR 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Kryvbas KR's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Kryvbas KR arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was vindicated by the result. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kryvbas KR (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.