Polessya 0-1 LNZ Cherkasy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Polessya take on LNZ Cherkasy.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Polessya host LNZ Cherkasy at Tsentralnyi Stadion in Premier League (matchday 19). Kick-off is Friday 1 March 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Polessya have gone 4W 6D 0L — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W D D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Polessya at home: 4W 3D 1L from their last 8 home games — 1.88 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, LNZ Cherkasy stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, LNZ Cherkasy have gone 3W 4D 2L in their last 9 away fixtures (1.44 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 9 away games (44%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Polessya carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for Polessya, 0 for LNZ Cherkasy and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 18 Aug 2023, ended Polessya 2–1 LNZ Cherkasy — a Polessya win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Polessya trading profile (last 18 games, 8 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 75%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
LNZ Cherkasy trading profile (last 18 games, 8 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Polessya 50% versus LNZ Cherkasy 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Polessya 39% | LNZ Cherkasy 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Polessya 1.12 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Polessya attack 0.999 / defence 1.022 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.857 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.088 / away 1.294. Data: built from Polessya's last 18 games and LNZ Cherkasy's last 17.
Result probabilities: Polessya 33% | Draw 34% | LNZ Cherkasy 33%. Fair-value odds: Polessya 3.07 | Draw 2.91 | LNZ Cherkasy 3.03. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 61% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Polessya's last 8 home games and LNZ Cherkasy's last 9 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Polessya 75% (last 8 home games) | LNZ Cherkasy 33% (last 9 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Polessya vs LNZ Cherkasy | Competition: Premier League, matchday 19 | Venue: Tsentralnyi Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 1 March 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Polessya 33% | Draw 34% | LNZ Cherkasy 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Polessya 1.12 / LNZ Cherkasy 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Polessya attack 0.999 / def 1.022 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.857 / def 1.034 | league avg home 1.088 / away 1.294 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Polessya xG
Expected Goals
1.13
LNZ Cherkasy xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Polessya vs LNZ Cherkasy FAQs
What time does Polessya vs LNZ Cherkasy kick off?
Polessya vs LNZ Cherkasy kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Friday 1 March 2024 at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What was the final score in Polessya vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Polessya 0 - 1 LNZ Cherkasy.
Where is Polessya vs LNZ Cherkasy being played?
The match is being played at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What competition is Polessya vs LNZ Cherkasy part of?
Polessya vs LNZ Cherkasy is a Premier League fixture (matchday 19) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Polessya vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our statistical model gives Polessya a 33% chance of winning, LNZ Cherkasy a 33% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Polessya vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Polessya and LNZ Cherkasy will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Polessya vs LNZ Cherkasy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Polessya's attack rating (1.00) and LNZ Cherkasy's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, LNZ Cherkasy's attack versus Polessya's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Polessya's last 18 games and LNZ Cherkasy's last 17 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.07
34%
2.91
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Polessya xG
Total xG
2.26
1.13
LNZ Cherkasy xG
3.07
33%
Home win
2.91
34%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
10%
9.55
11%
9.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 11.9 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.3 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.5 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Polessya vs LNZ Cherkasy Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Polessya vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Polessya and LNZ Cherkasy expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Polessya and 1.13 for LNZ Cherkasy, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Polessya vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 18 outings, Polessya have picked up 1.83 PPG on a 9W 6D 3L record — W-D-D-D-D across the most recent five.
LNZ Cherkasy's form line: 6W 5D 7L from 18 games, 1.28 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-L.
Put side by side, Polessya are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against LNZ Cherkasy.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Polessya have posted 1.88 PPG from their last 8 home games (4W 3D 1L).
On the road, LNZ Cherkasy have gone 3W 3D 2L from their last 8 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Polessya are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 0.72 conceded per game recently; LNZ Cherkasy are on 1.06 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Defensively: Polessya have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Polessya
Blended
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
Polessya (Home) vs LNZ Cherkasy (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Polessya
Blended
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
❓ Polessya vs LNZ Cherkasy Form FAQs
What form are Polessya and LNZ Cherkasy in coming into this match?
Polessya have gone 9W 6D 3L in their last 18 games (1.83 PPG), while LNZ Cherkasy have gone 6W 5D 7L in their last 18 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Polessya at home or LNZ Cherkasy away?
Polessya's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Polessya at home: 1.88 PPG; LNZ Cherkasy away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Polessya or LNZ Cherkasy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Polessya have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, LNZ Cherkasy in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2023. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 28 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Polessya's record when hosting LNZ Cherkasy specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Polessya
1
Draws
2
LNZ Cherkasy
Recent Meetings
❓ Polessya vs LNZ Cherkasy H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Polessya and LNZ Cherkasy?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Polessya have won 3, LNZ Cherkasy have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Polessya and LNZ Cherkasy last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 February 2026: LNZ Cherkasy 1-3 Polessya.
Who has won more matches between Polessya and LNZ Cherkasy?
Polessya have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Polessya see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
LNZ Cherkasy see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Polessya 75%, LNZ Cherkasy 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Polessya) and 50% (LNZ Cherkasy).
On the defensive side: LNZ Cherkasy in 50%; LNZ Cherkasy in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Polessya home games / LNZ Cherkasy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Polessya vs LNZ Cherkasy Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Polessya and LNZ Cherkasy matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Polessya's recent matches and 25% of LNZ Cherkasy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Polessya and LNZ Cherkasy matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Polessya's recent games and 50% of LNZ Cherkasy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as LNZ Cherkasy edge out Polessya 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
LNZ Cherkasy beat Polessya 0-1 at Tsentralnyi Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Polessya 1.12 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 1.13 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Polessya fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Polessya attack 1.00 / defence 1.02 against LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.86 / defence 1.03, drawn from 18/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Polessya 33% | Draw 34% | LNZ Cherkasy 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 34%. The actual LNZ Cherkasy win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Polessya 39%, LNZ Cherkasy 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Polessya's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Polessya arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.28. Form was overturned, with LNZ Cherkasy winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Polessya (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.