LNZ Cherkasy 1-1 Dnipro-1 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dnipro-1 at 57% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as LNZ Cherkasy face Dnipro-1.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dnipro-1 make the trip to Stadion Kolos to face LNZ Cherkasy in Premier League (matchday 21). The match kicks off on Tuesday 12 March 2024 at 11:00 UK time.
Form
LNZ Cherkasy (all games): 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
LNZ Cherkasy's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.60 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Dnipro-1's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: L D D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Dnipro-1's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 road games (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for LNZ Cherkasy, 1.70 for Dnipro-1 — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for LNZ Cherkasy, 0 for Dnipro-1 and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 3 Sep 2023, ended LNZ Cherkasy 0–0 Dnipro-1 — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
LNZ Cherkasy half-time and goal-timing data (last 21 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Dnipro-1 half-time and goal-timing data (last 21 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — LNZ Cherkasy 43% versus Dnipro-1 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (LNZ Cherkasy 48% | Dnipro-1 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects LNZ Cherkasy 0.75 xG and Dnipro-1 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.801 / defence 1.262 | Dnipro-1 attack 1.068 / defence 0.869. League average goals — home 1.082 / away 1.185. LNZ Cherkasy's defence rating of 1.262 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Dnipro-1's projected output up. Data: built from LNZ Cherkasy's last 19 games and Dnipro-1's last 50.
Result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 17% | Draw 27% | Dnipro-1 57%. Fair-value odds: LNZ Cherkasy 6.00 | Draw 3.75 | Dnipro-1 1.76. The model has a clear lean to Dnipro-1 (57%) — a 30pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dnipro-1 are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 58% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: LNZ Cherkasy 50% (last 10 home games) | Dnipro-1 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: LNZ Cherkasy vs Dnipro-1 | Competition: Premier League, matchday 21 | Venue: Stadion Kolos • Kick-off: Tuesday 12 March 2024 at 11:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 17% | Draw 27% | Dnipro-1 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG LNZ Cherkasy 0.75 / Dnipro-1 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.801 / def 1.262 | Dnipro-1 attack 1.068 / def 0.869 | league avg home 1.082 / away 1.185 • Poisson stance: Dnipro-1 (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.75
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Dnipro-1 xG
43%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ LNZ Cherkasy vs Dnipro-1 FAQs
What time does LNZ Cherkasy vs Dnipro-1 kick off?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Dnipro-1 kicked off at 11:00 UK time on Tuesday 12 March 2024 at Stadion Kolos.
What was the final score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Dnipro-1?
LNZ Cherkasy 1 - 1 Dnipro-1.
Where is LNZ Cherkasy vs Dnipro-1 being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Kolos.
What competition is LNZ Cherkasy vs Dnipro-1 part of?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Dnipro-1 is a Premier League fixture (matchday 21) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win LNZ Cherkasy vs Dnipro-1?
Our statistical model gives LNZ Cherkasy a 17% chance of winning, Dnipro-1 a 57% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Dnipro-1 the favourite.
Will both teams score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Dnipro-1?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both LNZ Cherkasy and Dnipro-1 will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will LNZ Cherkasy vs Dnipro-1 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
LNZ Cherkasy's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Dnipro-1's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.75. Flip it around — Dnipro-1's attack (1.07x) against LNZ Cherkasy's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.60.
These ratings are built from LNZ Cherkasy's last 19 games and Dnipro-1's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.0%), 0-2 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dnipro-1 Win
17%
6.00
27%
3.75
57%
1.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.2%
Away win
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.75
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Total xG
2.35
1.60
Dnipro-1 xG
6.00
17%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
1.76
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
20%
4.94
47%
2.13
Win to Nil
3%
29.65
27%
3.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 15.2 | 12.2 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.5 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ LNZ Cherkasy vs Dnipro-1 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for LNZ Cherkasy vs Dnipro-1?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are LNZ Cherkasy and Dnipro-1 expected to score?
The model projects 0.75 expected goals for LNZ Cherkasy and 1.60 for Dnipro-1, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for LNZ Cherkasy vs Dnipro-1?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 21 outings, LNZ Cherkasy have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 7W 7D 7L record — D-W-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Dnipro-1's form line: 12W 5D 4L from 21 games, 1.95 PPG, last five L-D-D-W-L.
Put side by side, Dnipro-1 are the form team by 0.62 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against LNZ Cherkasy.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, LNZ Cherkasy have posted 0.89 PPG from their last 9 home games (2W 2D 5L). That actually lags their 1.33 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Dnipro-1 have gone 6W 2D 1L from their last 9 away games — 2.22 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dnipro-1 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
LNZ Cherkasy are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Dnipro-1 are on 1.38 scored and 0.86 conceded.
Defensively: Dnipro-1 in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
Dnipro-1
Blended
LNZ Cherkasy (Home) vs Dnipro-1 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
Dnipro-1
Blended
❓ LNZ Cherkasy vs Dnipro-1 Form FAQs
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Dnipro-1 in coming into this match?
LNZ Cherkasy have gone 7W 7D 7L in their last 21 games (1.33 PPG), while Dnipro-1 have gone 12W 5D 4L in their last 21 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — LNZ Cherkasy at home or Dnipro-1 away?
Dnipro-1's away record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — LNZ Cherkasy at home: 0.89 PPG; Dnipro-1 away: 2.22 PPG.
Have LNZ Cherkasy or Dnipro-1 been keeping clean sheets recently?
LNZ Cherkasy have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Dnipro-1 in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between LNZ Cherkasy and Dnipro-1, the earliest from September 2023. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 12 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
LNZ Cherkasy
2
Draws
0
Dnipro-1
Recent Meetings
❓ LNZ Cherkasy vs Dnipro-1 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Dnipro-1?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, LNZ Cherkasy have won 0, Dnipro-1 have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did LNZ Cherkasy and Dnipro-1 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 March 2024: LNZ Cherkasy 1-1 Dnipro-1.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
LNZ Cherkasy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Dnipro-1 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — LNZ Cherkasy 44%, Dnipro-1 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (LNZ Cherkasy) and 33% (Dnipro-1).
On the defensive side: Dnipro-1 in 44%; LNZ Cherkasy have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = LNZ Cherkasy home games / Dnipro-1 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ LNZ Cherkasy vs Dnipro-1 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in LNZ Cherkasy and Dnipro-1 matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent matches and 44% of Dnipro-1's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are LNZ Cherkasy and Dnipro-1 matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent games and 33% of Dnipro-1's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do LNZ Cherkasy and Dnipro-1 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent matches and 78% of Dnipro-1's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
LNZ Cherkasy and Dnipro-1 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Kolos, Regular Season - 21, as LNZ Cherkasy and Dnipro-1 drew 1-1 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting LNZ Cherkasy 0.75 xG and Dnipro-1 1.60 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.80 / defence 1.26 against Dnipro-1 attack 1.07 / defence 0.87, drawn from 19/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it LNZ Cherkasy 17% | Draw 27% | Dnipro-1 57%, with Dnipro-1 to win its most likely call at 57%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (LNZ Cherkasy 48%, Dnipro-1 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (21 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Dnipro-1's trading profile (21 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Dnipro-1 arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.