Oleksandria 1-0 Vorskla Poltava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vorskla Poltava at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Oleksandria vs Vorskla Poltava fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
CSC Nika plays host to Oleksandria versus Vorskla Poltava in Premier League, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Friday 15 March 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Oleksandria's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Oleksandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Oleksandria have posted 3W 2D 5L at CSC Nika — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Vorskla Poltava have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vorskla Poltava's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Oleksandria, 1.60 for Vorskla Poltava — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Oleksandria 1W, Vorskla Poltava 2W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Sep 2023, ended 0–1 with Vorskla Poltava winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Oleksandria — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Vorskla Poltava — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oleksandria 51% versus Vorskla Poltava 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oleksandria 47% | Vorskla Poltava 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oleksandria 0.65 xG and Vorskla Poltava 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oleksandria attack 0.721 / defence 1.094 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.881 / defence 0.830. League average goals — home 1.094 / away 1.148. Oleksandria's attack strength of 0.721 is below the league average — the 0.65 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 49 Oleksandria games / 50 Vorskla Poltava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oleksandria 20% | Draw 35% | Vorskla Poltava 45%. Fair-value odds: Oleksandria 5.00 | Draw 2.86 | Vorskla Poltava 2.22. Vorskla Poltava hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.76. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.76 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Oleksandria's lower xG of 0.65 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Vorskla Poltava are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vorskla Poltava if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.76 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 26% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 33% on No. Form rates corroborate: Oleksandria 20% | Vorskla Poltava 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oleksandria vs Vorskla Poltava | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: CSC Nika • Kick-off: Friday 15 Mar 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oleksandria 20% | Draw 35% | Vorskla Poltava 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 33% | xG Oleksandria 0.65 / Vorskla Poltava 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Oleksandria attack 0.721 / def 1.094 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.881 / def 0.830 | league avg home 1.094 / away 1.148 • Poisson stance: Vorskla Poltava (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.65
Oleksandria xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Vorskla Poltava xG
33%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oleksandria vs Vorskla Poltava kick off?
Oleksandria vs Vorskla Poltava kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 15 March 2024 at CSC Nika.
What was the final score in Oleksandria vs Vorskla Poltava?
Oleksandria 1 - 0 Vorskla Poltava.
Where is Oleksandria vs Vorskla Poltava being played?
The match is being played at CSC Nika.
What competition is Oleksandria vs Vorskla Poltava part of?
Oleksandria vs Vorskla Poltava is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Oleksandria vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our statistical model gives Oleksandria a 20% chance of winning, Vorskla Poltava a 45% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Vorskla Poltava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oleksandria vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Oleksandria and Vorskla Poltava will score (BTTS).
Will Oleksandria vs Vorskla Poltava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Vorskla Poltava?
Record (4 meetings): Oleksandria 1W | Draws 1 | Vorskla Poltava 2W.
What form are Oleksandria and Vorskla Poltava in?
Oleksandria (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Oleksandria's attack at 0.72x the league average against Vorskla Poltava's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 0.65 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Vorskla Poltava's attack (0.88x) against Oleksandria's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 49/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (17.4%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vorskla Poltava Win
20%
4.92
35%
2.88
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
19.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.2%
Draw
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.65
Oleksandria xG
Total xG
1.76
1.11
Vorskla Poltava xG
4.92
20%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
2.99
67%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
52%
1.92
Win to Nil
7%
14.87
23%
4.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.2 | 19.0 | 10.5 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.4 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oleksandria vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.8%.
How many goals are Oleksandria and Vorskla Poltava expected to score?
The model projects 0.65 expected goals for Oleksandria and 1.11 for Vorskla Poltava, a combined total of 1.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Oleksandria vs Vorskla Poltava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 49 outings, Oleksandria have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 15W 19D 15L record — L-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Oleksandria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vorskla Poltava's form line: 21W 11D 17L from 49 games, 1.51 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-W. The sample for Vorskla Poltava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Oleksandria against 1.51 for Vorskla Poltava. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Oleksandria have posted 1.46 PPG from 24 outings (9W 8D 7L).
On the road, Vorskla Poltava have gone 10W 5D 9L from 24 away games — 1.46 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Oleksandria are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Vorskla Poltava are on 1.18 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oleksandria
Blended
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oleksandria and Vorskla Poltava in coming into this match?
Oleksandria have gone 15W 19D 15L in their last 49 games (1.31 PPG), while Vorskla Poltava have gone 21W 11D 17L in their last 49 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oleksandria at home or Vorskla Poltava away?
Oleksandria's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oleksandria at home: 1.46 PPG; Vorskla Poltava away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Oleksandria or Vorskla Poltava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Vorskla Poltava in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Oleksandria go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Oleksandria won 3-0 on 1 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Oleksandria have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Vorskla Poltava — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Oleksandria
1
Draws
2
Vorskla Poltava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Vorskla Poltava?
From 7 meetings on record, Oleksandria have won 4, Vorskla Poltava have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Oleksandria and Vorskla Poltava last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2025, when Vorskla Poltava 1-3 Oleksandria.
Who has won more matches between Oleksandria and Vorskla Poltava?
Oleksandria have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Oleksandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Vorskla Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oleksandria 50%, Vorskla Poltava 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Oleksandria) and 46% (Vorskla Poltava).
On the defensive side: Oleksandria keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Vorskla Poltava in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oleksandria home games / Vorskla Poltava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oleksandria play Vorskla Poltava?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Oleksandria's recent matches and 50% of Vorskla Poltava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Oleksandria vs Vorskla Poltava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Oleksandria's recent games and 46% of Vorskla Poltava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oleksandria and Vorskla Poltava tend to score early?
Oleksandria have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Vorskla Poltava in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Oleksandria defy the odds to beat Vorskla Poltava 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oleksandria beat Vorskla Poltava 1-0 at CSC Nika, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oleksandria 0.65 xG and Vorskla Poltava 1.11 xG, a combined 1.76. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Vorskla Poltava landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oleksandria attack 0.72 / defence 1.09 against Vorskla Poltava attack 0.88 / defence 0.83, drawn from 49/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oleksandria 20% | Draw 35% | Vorskla Poltava 45%, with Vorskla Poltava to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Oleksandria win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 54% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oleksandria 47%, Vorskla Poltava 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oleksandria's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Oleksandria 1.31 PPG, Vorskla Poltava 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Oleksandria win broke the near-deadlock. Oleksandria (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.